MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Friday, June 26

My MLB moneyline picks for June 26 contain all of my favorite looks and leans for tonight’s full slate.

See why my free MLB picks are topped by the Angels.

MLB moneyline picks for June 26

Matchup	Pick
Astros vs Tigers	-106
Reds vs Pirates	-174
Nationals vs Orioles	-127
Rangers vs Blue Jays	-104
Mariners vs Guardians	-12
Diamondbacks vs Rays	-130
Phillies vs Mets	+150
Yankees vs Red Sox	+106
Royals vs White Sox	-126
Cubs vs Brewers	-223
Rockies vs Twins	+153
Marlins vs Cardinals	-100
Athletics vs Angels	+115
Dodgers vs Padres	-133
Braves vs Giants	-117

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Expert MLB moneyline picks for June 26

Astros vs Tigers: Tigers (-106)

Tigers win probability: 52%

Neither team has been killing it offensively, both sitting under a 100 wRC+ over their last 12 games. However, for the Tigers, Keider Montero has been very serviceable over his last five outings.

The right hander owns a 2.81 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and just a 2% walk rate during that stretch.

On the other side, Spencer Arrighetti has been struggling, posting a 5.79 ERA over his last five starts.

With both offenses looking pretty lifeless, I will ride with the Tigers.

Reds vs Pirates: Pirates (-174)

Pirates win probability: 64%

Real simple, Paul Skenes versus a Reds offense that has been frozen solid. Over their last 21 games, Cincinnati owns just an 86 wRC+, a .298 wOBA, and a .666 OPS. Yikes.

Meanwhile, the Pirates play their best ball at home and the offense has been humming. Parlay it with something else or take the run line. It is the Pirates.

Nationals vs Orioles: Orioles (-127)

Orioles win probability: 56%

Despite the Nationals’ hot offense, Trevor Rogers has hit his stride over his last five outings, posting a sub 3.00 ERA, a sub 1.00 WHIP, and a sub 6% walk rate. He has been much more in control lately and pitching with confidence.

On the other side, Andrew Alvarez has been allowing a lot of hard contact over his last few outings, and with the Orioles’ bats starting to heat up, this could get ugly.

Rangers vs Blue Jays: Rangers (-104)

Rangers win probability: 51%

I have a hard time trusting the Rangers offense, but they have been on fire as of late.

Over their last 21 games, they own a 112 wRC+, a .330 wOBA, and a .747 OPS. They draw Patrick Corbin, who is back to his old form, posting a 6.64 ERA, 5.21 xERA, and a 1.75 WHIP over his last five outings.

I expect Joc Pederson and Jake Burger to lead the way for the Rangers tonight.

Mariners vs Guardians: Guardians (-102)

Guardians win probability: 50%

I already like a lot of Guardians bats this evening against Luis Castillo, who has been inconsistent all season long.

Both offenses have been ice cold recently, but the few bright spots in that Cleveland lineup, namely Travis Bazzana and Kyle Manzardo, should be enough to swing this spot against a struggling right hander.

Castillo has really struggled with left-handed hitters, and over his last 60 lefties faced, opponents have posted a 48% hard-hit rate, a 12% barrel rate, and a 66% fly ball rate.

Give me the Guardians.

Diamondbacks vs Rays: Rays (-130)

Rays win probability: 56%

I do not care that the Rays hung two touchdowns on the Royals Thursday afternoon, they now draw Zac Gallen, who has been nothing short of rough all season. The right hander enters today with a 7.68 road ERA, 6.00 xERA, and a 1.84 WHIP, while allowing nearly a 48% hard hit rate and a 12% barrel rate.

Those are loud contact issues showing up consistently, not noise.

Give me the hot Rays in this spot.

Phillies vs Mets: Mets (+150)

Mets win probability: 40%

This is an interesting spot with the Mets, who recently made a coaching change, putting the classic “fired coach bump” into play. Getting +150 here adds to the appeal.

"Vibes" play of the day.

Yankees vs Red Sox: Red Sox (+106)

Red Sox win probability: 48%

Some would say there is no way the Yankees go into Fenway and lose to this Red Sox team, but they did last night. Now Payton Tolle takes the mound for Boston, a pitcher who brings real grit and tenacity to the mound.

This is the type of spot a guy like Tolle tends to show up for.

The Yankees offense has gone cold, posting an 80 wRC+, a 30% K rate, a .644 OPS, and a .143 ISO over their last six games. Meanwhile, Boston has been just a bit better on the other side.

Royals vs White Sox: White Sox (-125)

White Sox win probability: 56%

I am not a big narrative guy when it comes to baseball, but a lot of White Sox players have been snubbed for the All-Star Game. I think the team gets some frustration out against Royals’ Mitch Spence, who has already been a punching bag this season.

Plus, the White Sox have just been playing far better at home than anywhere else. Get your revenge, fellas.

Bonus: Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (EVEN), and sprinkle the HR

Cubs vs Brewers: Brewers (-223)

Brewers win probability: 69%

If you want value on a hot team, take the Cubs, but Jacob Misiorowski is the truth.

The Cubs come in with four poorly-rated hitters in this matchup, and this feels like a spot where their hot streak cools off. Minimal thoughts here, just based on how dominant Misiorowski has been.

Colin Rea is on the bump for Chicago, carrying a 7.19 road ERA and a 1.60 road WHIP.

Give me the Brew Crew.

Rockies vs Twins: Rockies (+153)

Rockies win probability: 40%

I get it, Tomoyuki Sugano is on the mound for Colorado, but Taj Bradley has been just as inconsistent. Both offenses have been swinging it well lately, and neither pitcher has shown much stability.

You are essentially getting two hot lineups against two arms you cannot fully trust right now, which opens the door for value. At this price, I will take a shot on the Rockies.

Marlins vs Cardinals: Marlins (-100)

Marlin win probability: 50%

I am already riding Owen Caissie in this matchup, so why not ride the entire Fighting Fish train?

Michael McGreevy for the Cardinals has been abysmal over his last five outings, posting a 5.33 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Marlins have been the hottest team in baseball this month.

At near even money, I will take a shot on the Fish.

Athletics vs Angels: Angels (+113)

Angels win probability: 46%

The Athletics offense has cooled off this week, while the Angels have started to heat back up. Over their last six games, the A’s sit below a 100 wRC+, while the Angels have posted a 129 wRC+, along with a .353 wOBA and .811 OPS.

I also like what I have seen from Walbert Urena in recent outings, carrying a 2.41 ERA on the year while not allowing much hard contact. 

Dodgers vs Padres: Dodgers (-133)

Dodgers win probability: 57%

Braves vs Giants: Braves (-117)

Braves win probability: 54%

This is the game the Atlanta Braves bats wake up.

With Trevor McDonald on the mound for San Francisco, this sets up as a prime rebound spot for an ice cold Braves lineup. McDonald over his last three outings owns a 6.17 ERA, 5.59 xERA, a 1.89 WHIP, and nearly a 15% walk rate.

The Giants offense has not exactly been scorching either, but I am willing to trust the better lineup in a spot where the opposing arm has been consistently shaky. Give me Atlanta here.

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