The weekend here here, as is a fresh set of games filled with a ton of nuke missile opportunities!
My MLB player props are backing a couple of smaller names to go deep in my favorite home run predictions for Friday, June 26.
Best MLB home run props today
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Travis Bazzana
TJ Rumfield
Home run pick: Travis Bazzana (+578)
Cleveland Guardians rookie second baseman Travis Bazzana has been one of the few bright spots in this lineup as of late, owning a .769 SLG and a 1.202 OPS, while generating a 45% hard-hit rate and a 15% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
The young Aussie draws Seattle Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo, whose entire pitch mix is valued below league average, per FanGraphs. Bazzana owns a 68.5% arsenal coverage against Castillo’s full mix.
Castillo is nearly 50% fastballs, a pitch type the young second baseman has handled well this season, posting a .921 OPS while generating nearly a 42% hard-hit rate.
Beyond the below-average arsenal, Castillo has been getting tagged by left-handed hitters on the road, allowing a 71.4% elevation rate and a 43.7% hard-hit rate. Over his last 60 lefties faced, opponents have produced a 48% hard-hit rate, a 12% barrel rate, a 66% elevation rate, along with a .490 xSLG and .357 xwOBA.
For those who read my MLB player props for today, we are also on Kyle Manzardo to leave the yard as well.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CLEG, SEAM
Home run pick: TJ Rumfield (+640)
Colorado Rockies first baseman TJ Rumfield enters Friday night with not only an elite rating on Batters-Box, but also a 76% arsenal coverage against Twins right hander Taj Bradley.
Rumfield has been on fire lately, posting a .692 SLG, 1.092 OPS, .365 ISO, and just a 13% strikeout rate over his last 60 at bats against right-handed pitching.
The Twins right hander, on the other hand, has been getting torched by left-handed hitters.
Over the last 30 lefties he has faced, opponents are generating a 60% hard-hit rate, 25% barrel rate, and 75% elevation rate.
Even if you zoom out to the last 60 left-handed hitters, the numbers are nearly identical, with opponents owning a .708 xSLG and .418 xwOBA. Looking at his last three starts overall, Bradley owns a 6.19 xERA while allowing a 54% hard-hit rate and 16% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
This should be a fun one. I fully expect Rumfield to produce something above 105 mph off the bat this evening, whether it stays inside the ballpark, leaves it, or ends up in someone's glove.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, COLR
- HR picks: 65-219, +17.10 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
