MLB Picks

We have two lefties on the mound at loanDepot park on Tuesday, but Martín Pérez and the Atlanta Braves clearly have the better matchup. The Miami Marlins lineup features five left-handed bats, which plays directly into Pérez’s strengths. His sinker-changeup combination is excellent at neutralizing left-handed power and forcing weak contact to the opposite field. Meanwhile, Braxton Garrett draws a much tougher assignment. Ronald Acuña Jr. is expected back in the lineup, and Garrett struggled badly with his command in his first start, lasting only 1.1 innings. Atlanta can also throw dangerous right-handed bats like Austin Riley at him throughout the lineup. I price the Braves closer to -155 favorites.

Recent meetings between these teams have trended low-scoring, with five of the last six hitting the Under. Burns continues to pitch like an ace, while Luzardo’s underlying metrics are far better than his ERA suggests. Despite Philly’s recent offensive improvement, neither starter is expected to get shelled, making the Under attractive at plus odds.

Austin Slater has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst park in baseball for right-handed batting average.. Nationals Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which generally leads to less offense.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hurlers.. Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Austin Slater in today's game.

George Springer is batting just .170 in the month of May with a .491 OPS, but he is a primetime player who thrives under the bright lights of Yankee Stadium. He’s also the type of hitter who can get hot quickly, and he’s coming off a two-hit game that included a home run in the Bronx on Monday. Conditions are favorable as well: it’s expected to be 94 degrees with the wind blowing out to his pull side at 12 mph. If you’re a fan of BVP, Springer is also 3-for-5 in his career against Will Warren with a double and a home run. This prop is trading at +470, but I price Springer closer to +410 to hit a home run on Tuesday, giving us an edge at the current number.

Ranger Suárez has been dominant lately, allowing zero earned runs in five of his last six starts while posting a 1.96 road ERA. The Royals continue to struggle against left-handed pitching with a 2-10 record vs lefty starters and a 27th-ranked OPS against southpaws over the last two weeks. Boston’s bullpen has also been elite with an MLB-best 1.90 ERA during that two-week stretch.

Two starters with sub-2.50 expected ERAs walk into two lineups that have different matchup issues. The Milwaukee Brewers' offense should score because of its patient approach, but it can still struggle from time to time because it relies on stringing hits together. Brown, who is likely a quasi-opener, going three to four innings, should have some success against that with a rested bullpen behind. Meanwhile, Jacob Misiorowski should do Miz things with a 92nd percentile barrel suppression rate among other elite metrics. I projected exactly 7 runs. 

Left-handed hitters have posted a .308 BA, .551 SLG, and .390 wOBA, while also carrying a 53% fly ball rate and 21% line drive rate against Zebby Matthews for his career at Target Field.

Against 64% of Matthews' arsenal, Yordan Alvarez owns at least a .400 BA, 1.450 OPS, and 311 wRC+. Against the remaining 36%, he still owns solid numbers.

 

The Pirates lead the majors in hard hit rate against left-handed pitching, ranking just ahead of the Yankees and Dodgers. That's a sign results should follow – especially facing Matthew Liberatore, who ranks in the 10th percentile in xERA.

Mitch Keller has performed much worse against left-handed hitters and the Cardinals are expected to start five, headlined by JJ Wetherholt and Alec Burleson. 

Jake McCarthy is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this contest to drop to the lowest level on the schedule today at 46°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Jake McCarthy's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 90.9-mph EV last year has dropped to 85.4-mph.. Despite posting a .364 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake McCarthy has experienced some positive variance given the .067 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .297.. Jake McCarthy's 5.7% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) ranks in the 25th percentile since the start of last season.

It’s no secret that Jorge Soler has built his entire swing path around crushing left-handed pitching, and that’s exactly what he’s done throughout his career. Almost every season, his OPS against lefties is significantly higher than it is against right-handed pitching. Not only is Jacob Lopez a left-hander, but he’s also one who has been giving up plenty of home runs to right-handed bats this season. He’s allowed six homers over his last three starts, and eight of the 10 home runs he’s surrendered this year have come against right-handed hitters. Lopez relies heavily on a slider that breaks into Soler’s swing path. If he doesn’t bury it at the back foot and leaves it anywhere over the middle of the plate, Soler has the power to send it into the seats. This prop is trading at +453, but I price it closer to +360, so there’s solid value on the number.

In their last 12 games away from home against right-handed pitching, the White Sox own a 116 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .778 OPS, while posting an 8.9% walk rate, 40.7% hard-hit rate, and 14% barrel rate. Not to mention, this team ranks third in first-five scoring on the road, putting up 3.03 runs per first five innings.

Over the last week, opponents are hitting .194 with .567 OPS against the L.A. Dodgers and are collectively producing at 37% below league average at the plate. The pen is well-rested with just two relievers throwing a total of 19 pitches over the last two days. The San Diego Padres have been almost as good, allowing .208 average and .575 OPS over the last two weeks, producing opposing offense 33% below league average. The San Diego bullpen is a little more fatigued than the Dodgers’, which could be an issue if Griffin Canning struggles early.

When assessing his home run ability, Rafael Devers ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Chase Field ranks as the #3 stadium in the league for overall left-handed offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Rafael Devers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryne Nelson today.