MLB Picks

Colin Rea has allowed 1.60 homers per nine innings over the last two months – hardly ideal when walking batters at a high clip and going up against a powerful Baltimore Orioles lineup on a warm day.

Dean Kremer has struggled with the longball as well, allowing five homers over just 17 innings of work.

We’re likely to see a power surge from both teams, setting up for a high-scoring affair.

Bet the Over to -115.

This series has been tricky, but after going 2-0 on sides, I’m staying with the same matchup logic. Shane McClanahan’s expected ERA hints at some second-half regression, but the New York Yankees are not the team I expect to expose it. McClanahan owns a 75th-percentile ground-ball rate, while New York carries an above-average 28% fly-ball rate and 10.0% barrel rate. If he drags their lift-based offense onto the ground, Tampa Bay has the cleaner path.

Dillon Dingler is one of my favorite player prop looks on Wednesday’s slate, as the Tigers catcher enters in a strong matchup against Jeffrey Springs. Dingler has been seeing the ball extremely well against left handed pitching, posting a .510 SLG, .827 OPS, 54% hard hit rate and 71.8% elevation rate against the last 60 southpaws faced. Springs has struggled against right handed bats, allowing elite contact quality with a near 80% elevation rate, .781 xSLG and 16.3% barrel rate. With Dingler holding an elite Batters-Box rating and strong arsenal coverage, this price is worth attacking.

If you sort the best hitters in baseball by slugging percentage over the last two weeks, Pittsburgh's Esmerlyn Valdez sits third and is one of just three hitters with a SLG% of .800 or higher. He has been one of the hottest bats in baseball, ranking near the top in offensive production during this stretch. The Pirates' cleanup hitter has only launched four homers over those two weeks, but the underlying power numbers suggest more could be on the way. That starts tonight against Grant Holmes, who has shown an increase in home run risk compared to last season. Valdez has been one of the most dangerous young power bats in baseball of late. Everything from his swing speed to his IdealAtkAng% and BlastContact% shows there is more power coming. At +592, this is the type of price I'm willing to take a shot on.

How about a square pick at a good price with an elite matchup? The Royals are using an opener today before turning things over to Triple-A call-up Mitch Spence for the bulk innings. It's already a bullpen missing three arms after yesterday's "baseball game" that produced 28 runs, 32 hits, and three errors. Juan Soto went deep against right-hander Seth Lugo last night in the fourth inning, yet his home run price is nearly 100 points longer today in an even better matchup. Spence has allowed 11 home runs in 59+ innings this season and has struggled to keep the ball in the park. This has the makings of another loose baseball game with plenty of home run upside for the Mets. Soto ranks among the Top 25 hitters in both slugging and ISO over the last two weeks, and I make this home run prop closer to +270.

Bryce Harper is in an elite spot to go over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI. When receiving an elite Batters-Box rating this season, Harper has cleared this prop 73% of the time. While the sample size is smaller, he has gone over this number 55% of the time over the last three seasons.

Harper also owns a 95% arsenal coverage rating against Chase Burns’ pitch mix and has been crushing right handed pitching, posting a .957 OPS with a 61.5% hard hit rate over his last 60 plate appearances. With Burns continuing to struggle against left handed bats, Harper is in a prime spot to deliver.

Jake Bennett has posted a 3.72 xERA or better in six consecutive starts and draws a Chicago White Sox team sitting 28th in wOBA vs. lefties over the past month.

While Davis Martin hasn’t pitched as well of late, his struggles have come on the road. He’s been lights out at home this season, posting a remarkably strong 0.88 ERA and 2.14 FIP.

Play the Under to -115.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen has been sharp lately, posting a 3.09 FIP over the last week, while the St. Louis Cardinals’ relief corps owns a 3.44 FIP across its last 37 innings. With both offenses showing limited recent power, the pitching depth on each side supports a lower-scoring game tonight overall at Busch Stadium.

There will be temperatures in the high-70s, and the wind will be blowing out to center field at 8 mph at the time of first pitch. Roki Sasaki has fallen apart lately and faces a hot Colorado lineup, whereas Gabriel Hughes makes his first start against a lethal and star-studded L.A. lineup. L.A.'s bullpen has an unsavory 1.48 WHIP (24th) in the last 14 days, while Colorado has a 4.39 SIERA (24th).

Michael King's 5.08 xERA and 5.14 FIP are noticeably higher than his 3.81 ERA over the last month, indicating he is poised to take a step back.

The Arizona Diamondbacks haven’t hit righties well of late but they’ve avoided strikeouts, ranking 25th in K% over the last two weeks. That should allow them to put the ball in play consistently.

I think the San Diego Padres are overpriced, and would bet the Diamondbacks to +110.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.