Wednesday's MLB slate offers no shortage of player prop value, especially for a couple of Phillies sluggers this evening.
Check out my favorite MLB player props and MLB picks below.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Kyle Schwarber |
1+ hits | -161 |
| Bryce Harper |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -116 |
 Dillon Gingler |
Over 1.5 total bases | -102 |
Kyle Schwarber 1+ hits (-161)
Before we cast our stones for me writing up a $1.61 priced prop, let us all take a moment to appreciate how cheap this is for one of baseball's premier hitters to simply do the floor.
Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box, while also carrying nearly 70% arsenal coverage against Cincinnati Reds right-hander Chase Burns. Across 262 elite ratings dating back to the last three seasons, Schwarber records at least one hit 61.07% of the time.
Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Schwarber is batting .320 with a .560 SLG, .977 OPS, and a hard-hit rate north of 74%.
Meanwhile, Burns has struggled against left-handed hitters in his recent outings. Over his last 60 left-handed batters faced, he is allowing a 70.4% elevation rate, a 10.8% barrel rate, and an expected slugging percentage of .501.
At home against lefties this season, Burns is allowing them to elevate the baseball nearly 72% of the time. We just need a base knock, but I would not go much further than this -161 price.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-116)
Another mispriced prop in my book is Bryce Harper Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI, currently priced at -116.
This season, when Harper has received an elite rating on Batters-Box, he's gone Over this prop 73% of the time. Sure, the sample size is only 15 games, but over the last three seasons, he has gone Over 1.5 HRR in 55% of his 191 opportunities.
On top of that, Harper owns a 95% arsenal coverage rating against Burns' entire pitch mix. He has been locked in against right-handed pitching as of late, batting .320 with a .400 OBP, .607 SLG and .957 OPS over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed hitters. During that stretch, he's also producing a 61.5% hard-hit rate and a 12.8% barrel rate.
We already know how much trouble Burns has had against left-handed bats in his recent outings. I think both Harper and Schwarber are in excellent spots this evening. Take this up to -120.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 total bases (-102)
One of my favorite looks on the day is Detroit Tigers slugger Dillon Dingler to go over his bases prop this evening.
The Tigers catcher has been seeing the ball extremely well over the last few weeks, posting a .510 SLG and .827 OPS while generating a 54% hard hit rate and 71.8% elevation rate against the last 60 left-handed pitchers he has faced.
Dingler also owns an elite rating on Batters-Box today, where he has an 85% arsenal coverage against Athletics left hander Jeffrey Springs' pitch mix.
Springs has struggled in his most recent outings, especially against right-handed bats. The last 60 righties he has faced are elevating the baseball at nearly an 80% clip. Yes, nearly 80%!
Those hitters are also posting a .358 xBA, .781 xSLG and .372 xwOBA, while generating a 16.3% barrel rate during that span. Getting this near even money is well worth the squeeze. I would play this down to -110 at the most.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DSN, NBCS-California
- Prop picks: 277-520, -16.4 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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