It was donuts yesterday for the first time in nine articles, but with a handful of fade-able pitchers on the mound, Wednesday's slate is ripe for dingers and MLB player props.
Dansby Swanson has launched seven homers over the last two weeks, and I'm betting on No. 8 today against Dean Kremer. Juan Soto's home run price has also drifted nearly 100 points from yesterday despite drawing an even better matchup against a parade of right-handed pitching.
To round out the card, I'm going with a big price on an under-the-radar clean-up hitter who is a Top-5 bat over the last two weeks.
These are my favorite home run props for July 8.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Dansby Swanson |
+493 |
 Juan Soto |
+350 |
 Esmerlyn Valdez |
+592 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +9524 |
Home run pick: Dansby Swanson (+493)
I'm a little late to the Dansby Swanson power surge, but for a guy with seven home runs over the last two weeks and the fifth-best SLG in baseball during that stretch, today might be the best spot yet to ride the hot bat.
Dean Kremer gets the ball for the Orioles, and that pushes a lot of the Cubs' home run props into +EV territory.
Kremer is making just his second start after a lengthy IL stint and is one of the best home run targets on the board. He has allowed a homer in each of his four starts this season, ranks among the Bottom 30 starters in HR/9 over the last three seasons, and gives up plenty of fly balls.
There is also some dugout history, as three Cubs hitters have already taken him deep, albeit in small samples.
I've been hesitant to play Swanson's home run prop because he still hits in the lower third of the order, but he's getting his four plate appearances and has been hitting the ball harder than 99% of the league of late.
The fair price is closer to +400.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, Marquee Sports Network
Home run pick: Juan Soto (+350)
How about a square pick at a good price with an elite matchup?
The Royals are using an opener today before turning things over to Triple-A call-up Mitch Spence for the bulk innings. It's already a bullpen missing three arms after yesterday's "baseball game" that produced 28 runs, 32 hits, and three errors.
Juan Soto went deep against right-hander Seth Lugo last night in the fourth inning, yet his home-run price is nearly 100 points longer today in an even better matchup.
Spence has allowed 11 home runs in 59+ innings this season at Triple-A and has struggled to keep the ball in the park. This has the makings of another loose baseball game with plenty of home run upside for the Mets.
Soto ranks among the Top 25 hitters in both slugging and ISO over the last two weeks, and I make this home run prop closer to +270.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, Royals.TV
Home run pick: Esmerlyn Valdez (+592)
If you sort the best hitters in baseball by slugging percentage over the last two weeks, Pittsburgh's Esmerlyn Valdez sits third and is one of just three hitters with a SLG of .800 or higher. He has been one of the hottest bats in baseball, ranking near the top in offensive production during this stretch.
The Pirates' cleanup hitter has only launched four homers over those two weeks, but the underlying power numbers suggest more could be on the way. That starts tonight against Grant Holmes, who has shown an increase in home run risk compared to last season.
Valdez has been one of the most dangerous young power bats in baseball of late. Everything from his swing speed to his IdealAtkAng% and BlastContact% shows there is more power coming.
At +592, this is the type of price I'm willing to take a shot on.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, SNP
- HR picks: 21-126, -16.63 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Dansby Swanson |
Bet Now +9524 |
| Juan Soto |
|
| Esmerlyn Valdez |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
