MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 17, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Miami Marlins logo MIA @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Sun, May 17 • 12:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Junior Caminero logo
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 1.95
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 97th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Junior Caminero is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.2% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today's game.. In terms of power, Junior Caminero finds himself in the 94th percentile, having averaged 36.3 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year.
Total Bases
Jonathan Aranda logo
Jonathan Aranda o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.48
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. In Major League Baseball, Tropicana Field's RF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. Batting from the opposite that Eury Perez throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have the upper hand today.. Jonathan Aranda will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.
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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Sun, May 17 • 1:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Carlos Narvaez logo
Carlos Narvaez o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
Projection 1.51
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Carlos Narvaez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Truist Park grades out as the #6 ballpark in the majors for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to better offense.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games on the slate today at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Carlos Narvaez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 13.8% to 16.9%.
Total Bases
Ceddanne Rafaela logo
Ceddanne Rafaela o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.62
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 78th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Truist Park grades out as the #6 ballpark in the majors for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to better offense.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games on the slate today at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
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Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Sun, May 17 • 1:35 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI (+110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
Phil Naessens image
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Zack Wheeler against Paul Skenes is the best pitching duel on the entire slate. Pittsburgh is the home favorite at -127, but Wheeler is one of the premier arms in the National League, and the Phillies carry more offensive firepower. Getting plus money on a Wheeler start against any opponent is worth taking seriously.

Total Bases
Bryce Harper logo
Bryce Harper o1.5 Total Bases (+158)
Projection 1.79
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Bryce Harper projects as the 9th-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage over Paul Skenes in today's game.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams playing today.
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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Sun, May 17 • 1:35 PM ET
8 Computer Picks
Total Bases
James Wood logo
James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2.03
Best Odds
Pick made: 23 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his BABIP ability, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The 7th-shallowest right field dimensions among all stadiums are found in Nationals Park.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-hottest weather of the day at 86°.. James Wood will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Young in today's game.
Total Bases
Taylor Ward logo
Taylor Ward o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.89
Best Odds
Pick made: 37 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Taylor Ward ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Taylor Ward is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-hottest weather of the day at 86°.. Taylor Ward has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Taylor Ward has shown impressive plate discipline this year, ranking in the 99th percentile with a 0.8 K/BB rate.
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New York Yankees logo NYY @ New York Mets logo NYM Sun, May 17 • 1:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Trent Grisham logo
Trent Grisham o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.97
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Trent Grisham is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 85°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.9-mph in this game, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Trent Grisham will have the handedness advantage over Freddy Peralta in today's game.
Total Bases
Jazz Chisholm Jr. logo
Jazz Chisholm Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.76
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 91st percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 85°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.9-mph in this game, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the handedness advantage over Freddy Peralta in today's game.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Sun, May 17 • 1:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Kyle Manzardo logo
Kyle Manzardo o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.58
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his home run skill, Kyle Manzardo ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Manzardo is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The #3 park in baseball for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Kyle Manzardo will have the handedness advantage against Brady Singer today... and moreover, Singer has a huge platoon split.
Total RBIs
Kyle Manzardo logo
Kyle Manzardo o0.5 Total RBIs (+157)
Projection 0.7
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run skill, Kyle Manzardo ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Manzardo is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The #3 park in baseball for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Kyle Manzardo will have the handedness advantage against Brady Singer today... and moreover, Singer has a huge platoon split.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Sun, May 17 • 1:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Detroit Tigers logo DET (+115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
Phil Naessens image
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Jack Flaherty at home against Kevin Gausman is a quality pitching matchup, but Detroit gets the nod. Both clubs are sitting right around .500, and neither has been dominant recently, but the Tigers' bullpen has been sharper over the last two weeks. Home field at better than even money is a good value.

Total Hits
Daulton Varsho logo
Daulton Varsho u0.5 Total Hits (+160)
Projection 0.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daulton Varsho in the 4th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for mound aces.. Daulton Varsho pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.7% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 10th-deepest RF fences today.. Extreme groundball hitters like Daulton Varsho generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Flaherty.. Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Daulton Varsho today.
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Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Sun, May 17 • 2:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Kody Clemens logo
Kody Clemens o1.5 Total Bases (+215)
Projection 1.39
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Kody Clemens ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #7 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Kody Clemens will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Kody Clemens's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 16.9% to 23.5%.
Total Bases
William Contreras logo
William Contreras o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.78
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. William Contreras is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The #7 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Extreme groundball hitters like William Contreras generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Bailey Ober.
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Chicago Cubs logo CHC @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Sun, May 17 • 2:10 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Munetaka Murakami logo Munetaka Murakami o0.5 Total Home Runs (+338)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

Munetaka Murakami is tied for first in hard hit percentage (61.5%), and the White Sox rookie will get plenty of good pitches to hit this afternoon.

Cubs starter Colin Rea has allowed three dingers over his last two outings, while the Cubs pen has already surrendered 23 home runs this season.

Total Bases
Michael Busch logo
Michael Busch o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.9
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Michael Busch is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 5th-best park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to lefties.. Homers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league.. Michael Busch will hold the platoon advantage over Erick Fedde in today's game.
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Texas Rangers logo TEX @ Houston Astros logo HOU Sun, May 17 • 2:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jake Burger logo
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.76
Best Odds
Pick made: 33 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run talent, Jake Burger ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In MLB, Minute Maid Park's left field fences are the shallowest.. Checking in at the 90th percentile, the hardest ball Jake Burger has made contact with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 113.6 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power skill.. Power-wise, Jake Burger is ranked in the 82nd percentile, having hit 26.1 long-balls per 600 plate appearances this year.
Total Bases
Christian Walker logo
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.62
Best Odds
Pick made: 33 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. In MLB, Minute Maid Park's left field fences are the shallowest.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage today.. Christian Walker's 12.3% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) grades out in the 80th percentile this year.
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Kansas City Royals logo KC @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Sun, May 17 • 2:15 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Jordan Walker logo Jordan Walker o0.5 Total Home Runs (+660)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

Jordan Walker has gone deep in two of his last three games while batting .358 so far in May.

The 6-foot-6 outfielder has the fifth-highest average exit velocity in baseball (94.8 mph), so it’s no surprise that he’s piling up the homers.

Total Hits
Kyle Isbel logo
Kyle Isbel u0.5 Total Hits (+130)
Projection 0.71
Best Odds
Pick made: 23 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Isbel in the 6th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Kyle Isbel is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this game.. Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium's RF dimensions are the 2nd-deepest.. Typically, batters like Kyle Isbel who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Andre Pallante.. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Sun, May 17 • 3:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Ketel Marte logo
Ketel Marte o1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Projection 2.28
Best Odds
Pick made: 29 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Ketel Marte ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Coors Field projects as the #1 field in MLB for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Ketel Marte ranks in the 92nd percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .366.
Total Bases
Hunter Goodman logo
Hunter Goodman o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 1.94
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Hunter Goodman as the game's 20th-best home run batter.. Hunter Goodman is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Coors Field projects as the #1 field in MLB for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Hunter Goodman will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.
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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Athletics Athletics logo ATH Sun, May 17 • 4:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Matt Chapman logo
Matt Chapman o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 2.06
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. The weather report calls for the best hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 22.1-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Matt Chapman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeffrey Springs in today's game.
Total Bases
Lawrence Butler logo
Lawrence Butler o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.8
Best Odds
Pick made: 33 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Lawrence Butler ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Sutter Health Park as the 2nd-best park in the league for run-scoring.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) in MLB.. The weather report calls for the best hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 22.1-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Sun, May 17 • 4:07 PM ET
3 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Max Muncy logo Max Muncy o0.5 Total Home Runs (+361)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
Chris Faria image
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst

Max Muncy has been crushing the baseball, ranking 11th in the majors in hard hit percentage and eighth in barrels per plate appearance percentage.

Angels starter Grayson Rodriguez is set to make his first appearance in the majors since July 2024, while their bullpen ranks third last in ERA with 22 homers allowed.

Total
Los Angeles Dodgers logo Los Angeles Angels logo o9.5 (+100)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
Eric Rosales image
Eric Rosales
Betting Analyst

The Over has cashed in seven of the last nine head-to-head meetings between the Dodgers and Angels.

View 13 Picks
San Diego Padres logo SD @ Seattle Mariners logo SEA Sun, May 17 • 7:20 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Julio Rodriguez logo
Julio Rodriguez o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.85
Best Odds
Pick made: 21 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average skill, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 10th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all parks, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all parks.. Out of every team today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the San Diego Padres.
Total Bases
Jackson Merrill logo
Jackson Merrill o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.77
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.. Among all parks, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that George Kirby throws from, Jackson Merrill will have an edge in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jackson Merrill stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
View 10 Picks
Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 2 Computer Picks
Total
Milwaukee Brewers logo St. Louis Cardinals logo u8.0 (-120)
Pick made: 11 days ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.

Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL (-110)
Pick made: 11 days ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Brandon Sproat’s xFIP and SIERA are two full runs less than his ERA, suggesting he hasn’t pitched as poorly as it appears on the surface.

Andre Pallante has posted some concerning numbers against lefties (47.2% hard-hit rate, 13.2% barrel rate), and the Brewers have plenty of good ones in their lineup. This mismatch favors the visitors, and we'll take the Brewers on the ML.

View 4 Picks

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