MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 87th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Given Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Jackson Holliday will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today.. Jackson Holliday has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.

The Mets rank 29th in wOBA and 27th in ISO against right-handed pitchers and are tied for 28th in overall wOBAcon this season, and they've also played to the Under in 25 of their last 40 away games (+9.50 Units / 22% ROI). Similarly, the Phillies have struggled against lefties with a 25th-ranked wOBA and gone Under the number in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.00 Units / 31% ROI).

Sean Burke over his last five starts, his walk rate sits near 15%, with even worse trends versus left-handed hitters at 18.3% over his last 60 faced. On the road and versus righties, the control issues still linger above double digits. He now draws a disciplined Yankees lineup that consistently works counts and draws free passes, with multiple hitters showing strong walk rates across recent sample sizes. With a 2.5 line and plus money better than +130 is clear value down to +120.

Cardinals vs. Royals sets up well for both starters to stay under their strikeout lines given the contact driven profiles on each side. Royals lefty Noah Cameron carries the lowest K rate in the current season Batters-Box dataset. His home metrics show moderate swing and whiff rates but nothing dominant. The Cardinals have been extremely difficult to strike out against lefties on the road, posting elite contact rates and multiple hitters with very low strikeout marks across recent samples. Expect consistent contact and limited punchouts.

I'll happily add a +500 homer in Sacramento today with, by far, the best hitting conditions on the slate. Tyler Soderstrom is slugging .719 during the Athletics' current nine-game homestand, where he has also launched four home runs. His .395 ISO ranks inside the Top 25 in baseball over the last two weeks, and his 75.4-mph bat speed places him among the upper tier of hitters over that same stretch. The Halos are rolling with a bullpen day, and that group of relievers ranks in the bottom third of the league in HR/9. Four of the seven most-used Angels relievers also carry ERAs north of 4.00. I love runs in this game.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.