Mexico vs South Korea Predictions, Picks & Odds — Thursday, June 18 World Cup Match

The top spot in Group A could be on the line Thursday night when Mexico hosts South Korea for Matchday 2 action.

Both sides claimed three points in their opening fixtures, and are expected to finish top two in the group. That’s why my Mexico vs. South Korea predictions are expecting these teams to finish with a share of the spoils and a chance to still win the group. 

Read on for my World Cup picks for Thursday, June 18, with kickoff at 9 p.m. ET on FOX. 

 TOP PICK
Who will win Mexico vs South Korea: Draw (+245)

These two sides met in September 2025 in a friendly in Nashville, a match that ended in a 2-2 draw. While both sides rotated fairly heavily, many of Thursday’s expected starters saw action at some point.

South Korea showed in that match that they could match the athleticism of El Tri and cause problems on the counter-attack. It also displayed South Korea’s clinical finishing, as they scored on two of their three efforts on goal.

While Mexico will have a home-field advantage that sees them favored in the World Cup odds, this is a spot where it won’t matter as much as the other group stage fixtures. For starters, this is the only time Mexico will play outside the Azteca potentially until the quarterfinals. 

Additionally, South Korea prepared for this by setting up camp in Salt Lake City. They’ve already become acclimated to the high altitude they’ll encounter in Guadalajara, which sits nearly a mile above sea level.

The shift of Edson Alvarez into central defense, filling in for the suspended Cesar Montes, weakens the Mexican midfield. It will lead to them likely being more cautious in attack, which will stunt their ability to break down South Korea’s low block but also prevent counter-attacks.

Just as in the friendly, I’m expecting a stalemate here as both sides know losing this match can cost them the top spot in the group. 

I’m taking the draw in this one, and will play it as low as +220.

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

Mexico vs South Korea Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (-167)

Mexico held South Africa to just 0.07 xG while allowing just two touches inside their penalty area. At the other end, El Tri didn’t find their second goal until 18 minutes after they took a man advantage. 

You could argue they should’ve had three goals before that point, especially with Julián Quiñones hitting the post on what should’ve been his second goal.

This isn’t a one-off, either. If you go back through their friendlies this year, they missed five of their six big chances created in total against Serbia, Australia, and Ghana.

Now they face this South Korean side that shifts from a 3-4-3 into a 5-4-1 when they lose possession. Czechia managed just 12 penalty-area touches, and their lone goal was off a long throw-in. They also registered just one open-play shot on target.

When South Korea does get on the ball, Mexico knows they must prevent the counter-attack. Both of South Korea’s goals came via sweeping moves up the pitch, including a long ball to set up the winning strike.

As a result, I expect we’ll get a very cagey match ending in a 1-1 scoreline. The Under is the way to go, but I wouldn’t bet it any further than the -167 odds it sits at. 

Mexico vs South Korea projected lineup

Mexico (4-3-3): Rangel; Reyes, Vasquez, Alvarez, Gallardo; Lira, Mora, Fidalgo; Alvarado, Jimenez, Quinones

South Korea (3-4-): S. Kim; H. Lee, M. Kim, G. Lee; Seol, Hwang, Paik, T. Lee; K. Lee, Son, J. Lee.

Mexico vs South Korea injuries

Mexico: Cesar Montes (Out), Julián Quiñones (Probable).

South Korea: Kim Tae-Hyeon (Doubtful), Bae Jun-Ho (Doubtful).

Mexico vs South Korea weather

Temperatures will be in the mid 70s at kickoff, with winds of 9-17 mph and a very low chance of rain.

Mexico vs South Korea odds

Odds courtesy of Kalshi.

How to watch Mexico vs South Korea

Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.

Pages related to this topic