If you are not a fan of sweaty MLB player props, this might not be your article. But if you are here for fun and a little chaos, welcome!
Here are my three favorite MLB pitcher props for this evening’s slate. We are fading all three starters while rooting for consistent contact and some good eyes at the dish.
Let's have a day on Thursday, June 18.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Sean Burke |
Over 2.5 Walks Allowed | +135 |
 Matthew Liberatore |
Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -139 |
 Noah Cameron |
Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -134 |
Sean Burke Over 2.5 walks allowed (+135)
I am already fading Chicago White Sox starter Sean Burke in another play today, so let's double down on an issue that has plagued him lately — giving up walks.
Over his last five starts, Burke owns a walk rate hovering around 15%. That number sits just above 10% on the road this season, and it climbs to 12.2% against right-handed hitters away from home.
More recently, left-handed hitters have given him serious trouble, as he's posted an 18.3% walk rate over the last 60 lefties he has faced.
Now he draws a New York Yankees lineup loaded with disciplined hitters who are more than willing to take a free pass.
Over their last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, six Yankees hitters own at least a 10% walk rate, while two sit north of 20%. Expand the sample to the last 60 plate appearances, and five hitters carry at least an 8.3% walk rate, with four checking in at 11.1% or higher.
Getting this at better than +130 feels well worth a dabble. With the number set at 2.5, I would still be interested down to the +120 range.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, CHSN
Matthew Liberatore Under 4.5 strikeouts (-139)
One of the toughest teams in baseball to strike out over the last few years has been the Kansas City Royals, and that profile has held steady this season with a strikeout rate hovering around 20% at home.
They draw St. Louis Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore, and he enters today with a poorly rated average hitter matchup strikeout profile in both Batters-Box datasets. He owns the lowest K% among Thursday starters over the last three seasons, and the second-lowest overall this season.
In 28 games with a poorly rated K% matchup, he has gone under this prop 57.14% of the time. In 14 games graded as average overall, he has stayed Under five strikeouts at a 57% clip as well.
The Royals have posted just a 10% strikeout rate at home against left-handed pitching this season. Over their last 30 plate appearances against southpaws, they have five hitters sitting at a 14.3% strikeout rate or lower, with only three above 23.3%.
This is a contact-heavy group, and I have no issue backing an Under 4.5 strikeouts for Liberatore. If you want to chase plus money, the Under 3.5 is live, but the broader trends point more strongly toward the Under 4.5.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, CARD
Noah Cameron Under 4.5 strikeouts (-134)
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, CARD
- Prop picks: 228-394-35, +7.14 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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