The USMNT can take a massive step towards winning Group D at the World Cup on Friday afternoon when they take on Australia.
Christian Pulisic is expected to start for the USA, which is why my USA vs. Australia predictions are backing the Americans to get the win and give themselves an easier pathway into the knockout stages.
Below, I break down my World Cup picks for Friday, June 19, with kickoff at 3 p.m. on FOX.
Who will win USA vs Australia: USA -1.5 (+158)
Australia’s stunning 2-0 win over Turkiye saw the Aussies withstand a barrage on goal. Turkiye held 72% possession and attempted 30 shots, racking up 1.36 xG on eight accurate shots.
However, Turkiye made some odd decisions with their lineup. Leaving Kenan Yildiz on the bench for 45 minutes left them in a creative bind at times in the first half.
The other thing Turkiye failed to do was win the ball back without leaving space for the Aussies to counter. Their fullbacks repeatedly got caught out of position as they employed a full team press.
Mauricio Pochettino had the Americans set up to pressure Paraguay when they won the ball back, but did so without throwing the entire team forward. They also have more pace in defense than the Turks did, with Antonee Robinson and Chris Richards able to track back quickly.
Australia was able to stay in its compact shell and allow GK Patrick Beach to be a hero, as he came up with eight saves. That won’t be possible against a USA side with much more mobility and better movement, particularly from ST Folarin Balogun.
Avoid the juice on the 3-way market, and back the Americans to win again by multiple goals. I’ll play this down to +150.
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TOp pick
USA vs Australia Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (+100)
As a neutral, I loved watching Beach hold Turkiye at bay. That said, the odds of him repeating that performance here are quite low.
The Americans put four goals past Paraguay, a side that allowed just 10 goals in 18 CONMEBOL qualification matches.
They did so with flair, supported by overloading wide areas and forcing the Paraguayan wide players and attackers to either support the defense or allow them to get overrun.
Christian Pulisic looked like the player he was in the first half of the season at AC Milan, taking on defenders for 45 minutes and beating them with pace and technical ability. Balogun’s movement was outstanding, while Dest and Tillman repeatedly got into dangerous areas.
This USMNT used to rely on breaking down a compact defense with individual brilliance. Pochettino now has them getting on the ball early and being aggressive.
Playing in front of a ravenous fanbase in Seattle, they’ll feed off the energy and lay down another marker in this tournament.
This is my top play, and I’m backing it to -110.
USA vs Australia projected lineup
USA (4-3-3): Freese; Freeman, Richards, Ream, Robinson; Adams, Tillman, Mckennie; Dest, Balogun, Pulisic
Australia (3-4-2-1): Beach; Circati, Souttar, Burgess; Italiano, O’Neill, Okon-Engstler, Bos; Irankunda, Toure, Metcalfe
USA vs Australia injuries
USA: Christian Pulisic (Probable).
Australia: No injuries to report.
USA vs Australia weather
Temps will be in the upper 70s, with clouds and a 0% chance of rain.
USA vs Australia odds
| USA | Australia | |
|---|---|---|
| -163 | Moneyline | +426 |
| +355 | Draw | +355 |
| Over 2.5 (+100) | Total | Under 2.5 (-104) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch USA vs Australia
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington |
| Date | Friday, June 19, 2026 |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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