MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 21, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Minnesota Twins logo MIN @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Tue, Jul 21 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Victor Caratini logo
Victor Caratini o0.5 Total RBIs (+281)
Projection 0.5
Best Odds
Pick made: 52 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Victor Caratini is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. Progressive Field ranks as the #2 ballpark in the league for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, Progressive Field's left field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest.. The weather report calls for the 4th-best hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.8-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.
Total Bases
Chase DeLauter logo
Chase DeLauter o1.5 Total Bases (+122)
Projection 1.79
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Chase DeLauter's batting average skill is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Chase DeLauter is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The #2 park in MLB for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. The weather report calls for the 4th-best hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI Tue, Jul 21 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Freddie Freeman logo
Freddie Freeman o1.5 Total Bases (+141)
Projection 2.01
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his batting average talent, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 16th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Freddie Freeman is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park profiles as the #8 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This game is forecasted to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Freddie Freeman will hold the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's game... and even better, Wheeler has a large platoon split.
Total Bases
Shohei Ohtani logo
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (+114)
Projection 2.36
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 4th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Shohei Ohtani is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Citizens Bank Park profiles as the #8 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. HRs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in MLB.. This game is forecasted to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
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Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT @ New York Yankees logo NYY Tue, Jul 21 • 7:05 PM ET
2 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Brandon Lowe logo
Brandon Lowe u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.95
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Yankee Stadium profiles as the #27 ballpark in MLB for LHB BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which generally leads to worse offense.. Among every team playing today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the New York Yankees.. Brandon Lowe will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Paul Goldschmidt logo
Paul Goldschmidt o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.65
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 79th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. Among all parks, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the most humid conditions of the day at 88%.. Paul Goldschmidt has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
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Tampa Bay Rays logo TB @ Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR Tue, Jul 21 • 7:07 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Junior Caminero logo
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.98
Best Odds
Pick made: 52 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 15th-best batter in the game.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 5th-best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. In the majors, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-most humidity of the day (87%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.
Total Bases
Kazuma Okamoto logo
Kazuma Okamoto o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.52
Best Odds
Pick made: 52 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Kazuma Okamoto ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kazuma Okamoto is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 5th-best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. In the majors, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-most humidity of the day (87%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.
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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Tue, Jul 21 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Gunnar Henderson logo
Gunnar Henderson o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.73
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's right field fences are the shallowest.
Total Bases
Willson Contreras logo
Willson Contreras o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.7
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Willson Contreras projects as the 19th-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. Willson Contreras pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.
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San Diego Padres logo SD @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Tue, Jul 21 • 7:15 PM ET
5 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Manny Machado logo
Manny Machado o1.5 Total Bases (+129)
Projection 2.03
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Truist Park grades out as the #5 ballpark in Major League Baseball for overall righty offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 2nd-most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate today.
Total Bases
Jackson Merrill logo
Jackson Merrill o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.99
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best venue in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to LHB.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 2nd-most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate today.
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New York Mets logo NYM @ Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL Tue, Jul 21 • 7:40 PM ET
6 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Bo Bichette logo
Bo Bichette o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.8
Best Odds
Pick made: 20 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Bichette as the 6th-best hitter in the league when assessing his batting average talent.. Bo Bichette is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
Total Bases
Andrew Vaughn logo
Andrew Vaughn o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.76
Best Odds
Pick made: 20 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Andrew Vaughn is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Kansas City Royals logo KC Tue, Jul 21 • 7:40 PM ET
2 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Casey Schmitt logo
Casey Schmitt o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.99
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Casey Schmitt ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Casey Schmitt is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #10 stadium in the game for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Home Runs
Vinnie Pasquantino logo
Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total Home Runs (+650)
Projection 0.17
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vinnie Pasquantino in the 81st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Mahle throws from, Vinnie Pasquantino will have an advantage in today's game.
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Detroit Tigers logo DET @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Tue, Jul 21 • 8:05 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Chicago Cubs logo CHC (-108)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
Chris Vasile image
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor

Both teams are 7-3 in their last 10 games, but it's the Cubs whom I trust more in this spot. They have been dialed in at the plate of late, and I'm expecting Framber Valdez to return to his struggles against a good-hitting Cubbies side. 

Total Bases
Matt Vierling logo
Matt Vierling o1.5 Total Bases (+154)
Projection 1.59
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Vierling in the 75th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Matt Vierling is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. Hitting from the opposite that David Peterson throws from, Matt Vierling will have an advantage in today's game.
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Miami Marlins logo MIA @ Houston Astros logo HOU Tue, Jul 21 • 8:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Strikeouts Thrown
Tyler Phillips logo
Tyler Phillips o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+106)
Projection 3.96
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The Houston Astros have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Lucas Spence, Zach Dezenzo, Taylor Trammell).. The #1 venue in MLB for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tyler Phillips must realize this, because he has gone to his non-fastballs a lot this year: 65% of the time, checking in at the 91st percentile.
Total RBIs
Heriberto Hernandez logo
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 91st percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Heriberto Hernandez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Heriberto Hernandez pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.2% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Houston Astros infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams today.
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St. Louis Cardinals logo STL @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Tue, Jul 21 • 9:38 PM ET
9 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Jo Adell logo
Jo Adell o0.5 Total Home Runs (+410)
Projection 0.21
Best Odds
Pick made: 52 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run talent, Jo Adell ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jo Adell is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°.. Jo Adell will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore in today's matchup.
Total Home Runs
Ivan Herrera logo
Ivan Herrera o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1100)
Projection 0.13
Best Odds
Pick made: 52 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°.
View 9 Picks
Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Seattle Mariners logo SEA Tue, Jul 21 • 9:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds logo CIN (-102)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
Chris Vasile image
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor

Let's dial up a bet on the Reds tonight behind Chase Burns and his excellent strikeout ability. The M's are the third-worst K team at home, and Burns has racked up 7+ Ks in 8 of his last 10 appearances. That'll be enough to help the Reds pick up the win. 

Total Home Runs
Josh Naylor logo
Josh Naylor o0.5 Total Home Runs (+600)
Projection 0.15
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Josh Naylor is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles T-Mobile Park as the 8th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest fence height (on average) among all parks.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Chase Burns throws from, Josh Naylor will have an advantage in today's game.
View 11 Picks
Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
6 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Game Prop
St. Louis Cardinals logo o2.5 Team Total (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Earned Runs Allowed
Zac Gallen logo Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

View 16 Picks
Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: 29 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: 29 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

View 14 Picks
Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

View 15 Picks
Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

View 12 Picks
San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

View 2 Picks

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