MLB Picks

There are some great hitting conditions for right-handed bats at Fenway today, with 21-mph winds blowing out toward the Monster in left field. Sonny Gray has been fortunate when it comes to home runs at home this season, allowing just one over 31+ innings, but he owned the fifth-worst HR/FB rate in baseball among qualified starters last year. Okamoto isn't hitting for average right now, but he leads the team with 15 home runs, owns a low groundball rate (35% over the last 14 days), and paces the club in hard-hit rate. 

Kody Clemens finds himself in an excellent spot against Texas Rangers starter Jack Leiter. The right-hander has struggled to keep the ball on the ground against left-handed hitters, allowing a 76% elevation rate over his last 30 lefties faced and more than 70% over his last 90. During that stretch, lefties own a .300 expected batting average and .541 expected slugging percentage against him. Clemens enters this matchup swinging a hot bat, hitting .429 with a 1.574 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching. He also owns elite Batters-Box ratings and exceptional arsenal coverage against Leiter's pitch mix.

The Mets rank 29th in wOBA and 27th in ISO against right-handed pitchers and are tied for 28th in overall wOBAcon this season, and they've also played to the Under in 25 of their last 40 away games (+9.50 Units / 22% ROI). Similarly, the Phillies have struggled against lefties with a 25th-ranked wOBA and gone Under the number in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.00 Units / 31% ROI).

Ben Rice finds himself in an excellent matchup against Chicago White Sox right-hander Sean Burke, who has struggled badly against left-handed hitters. Over his last 30 batters faced from the left side, Burke has allowed a 68.8% elevation rate, 50% hard contact rate, and 12.5% barrel rate. Those issues remain present over a larger sample as well. Rice enters with an elite matchup rating, having cleared this number in six of his last 10 elite-rated spots. The Yankees slugger has also been swinging a hot bat lately, posting a .292 average, .667 slugging percentage, and 1.100 OPS.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are third in wOBA and eighth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

Cardinals vs. Royals sets up well for both starters to stay under their strikeout lines given the contact driven profiles on each side. Royals lefty Noah Cameron carries the lowest K rate in the current season Batters-Box dataset. His home metrics show moderate swing and whiff rates but nothing dominant. The Cardinals have been extremely difficult to strike out against lefties on the road, posting elite contact rates and multiple hitters with very low strikeout marks across recent samples. Expect consistent contact and limited punchouts.

I'll happily add a +500 homer in Sacramento today with, by far, the best hitting conditions on the slate. Tyler Soderstrom is slugging .719 during the Athletics' current nine-game homestand, where he has also launched four home runs. His .395 ISO ranks inside the Top 25 in baseball over the last two weeks, and his 75.4-mph bat speed places him among the upper tier of hitters over that same stretch. The Halos are rolling with a bullpen day, and that group of relievers ranks in the bottom third of the league in HR/9. Four of the seven most-used Angels relievers also carry ERAs north of 4.00. I love runs in this game.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.