MLB Picks

This is a +EV price on the betting favorite for NL MVP (-115), with a fair price of +250/+260. The Nationals are trotting out Jake Irvin, who has allowed the fifth-most homers since 2023 and has seen his ground-ball rate fall for a second straight season. Irvin faced the Cubs once this season and allowed two dingers, while Pete Crow-Armstrong has taken him deep once across nine plate appearances. There is nothing fancy here, just a price on the good side of three dollars with one of the best hitters in baseball in an elite HR matchup.

This game projects for 9.89 runs with a fair price of -181 on this total, making it a buy even at 8.5 runs at -110. Bryan Woo is coming off a hefty 100-pitch outing, a number he has reached just once this season, while averaging fewer than 90 pitches per start. That workload could be an issue against a Yankees lineup in a favorable hitting environment. It’s also a good spot to fade Ryan Weathers, who has not allowed a run in his last two starts but still owns the 11th-worst hard-hit rate among MLB starters this season. Woo is even worse, ranking ninth-worst. Both starters also rank in the bottom 50 in Blast Contact%. Looking at the later innings, both bullpens rank in the bottom five in the league in WAR over the last 30 days. With pitching concerns from start to finish, there are enough paths to runs to back the Over on this short total.

Mike Yastrzemski is riding a power surge. He owns a strong 22.5% barrel rate over his past 10 games and has hit 11 balls at least 300 feet during that span.

He has been disciplined at the plate, posting a 7.0% swinging strike rate. That should help him hang in there against Nolan McLean and his high-end strikeout prowess.

I’d bet this down to +575.

Bailey Ober has been excellent at home, where he owns a 2.72 ERA and has helped the Twins win seven of his nine starts in Minnesota. He’s also held current Orioles hitters to a .606 OPS across 60 at-bats. Baltimore enters in rough form against right-handed pitching, ranking 27th in OPS over the last two weeks, and its bullpen has been a disaster with a 6.26 ERA over that stretch.

Nick Lodolo has a lot of paths to his Unders today. He's coming off the IL after hitting the shelf before the All-Star break with a blister issue. He only threw 65 pitches in his last rehab start, so his leash isn't going to be long today on the road. The real issue here is that blister. The lefty is apparently using a modified grip on his curveball, which is worth the fade on a short leash. Lodolo's curveball is his putaway pitch, and if that isn't there with the new grip, that's only going to help the Under. Yes, it's a great K% matchup, but that's priced in. There are more outs to the Under than the Over here. I'm playing this to -120.

Texas draws an excellent matchup against Los Angeles Angels right-hander Ryan Johnson, who has struggled significantly over his last five starts. Johnson enters tonight with a 7.25 ERA, 6.34 xERA and 1.66 WHIP while allowing opposing hitters to generate a 14.5% barrel rate. The Rangers also bring the highest-rated offense on today’s slate, featuring six elite-rated hitters and another with a strong rating, according to Batters-Box. Since 2024, Texas has scored 4+ runs in 56.1% of its 198 games with a rating of at least 0.445. With the data pointing toward runs, this is playable down to -125.

The Canadian rookie is coming off a seven-inning shutout, one-hit performance where he punched out nine Padres over 92 pitches. He has the leash, is motivated while fighting for a rotation spot, and projects as one of the best K Overs today in a cupcake matchup at home against the Rockies. Colorado owns a 25% K rate against southpaws, which is one of the worst marks in baseball. I could see this price falling off a cliff, as the projection is 5.08 Ks over 85 pitches, and that might be conservative. There is also ladder potential here, with 7+ Ks paying +560 at FanDuel, +550 at bet365, and +582 at DraftKings. Bratt can be a K-per-inning pitcher in the big leagues but needs to work on his command. Luckily for him, he's on his home mound and faces one of the lowest walk-rate offenses in baseball. He owns a 26% CSW rate over his last three games, which is an above-average rate. 

Junior Caminero is back in the spotlight as one of my favorite looks at the dish today in Sacramento. The Rays slugger enters with an elite Batters-Box rating and covers over 60% of Mason Barnett’s pitch mix. Caminero has surpassed this prop in 60% of his last 25 elite road ratings. Barnett has also struggled against right-handed hitters, allowing plenty of hard contact and elevation. Meanwhile, Caminero has been absolutely mashing over his last 10 games, posting a .632 SLG, .395 ISO, 57% hard-hit rate and 21.4% barrel rate. I’m comfortable playing this down to -130.

Rafael Devers stands out as an intriguing value play at nearly six-to-one. Devers enters with the highest rating in this matchup over at Batters-Box while covering over 75% of Hunter Brown's pitches. Over his last 10 games, he is generating a 61.5% hard-hit rate and 25% HR/FB rate. Brown has also allowed plenty of quality contact to left-handed hitters, with the last 30 lefties he has faced barreling the ball at a 17.6% clip while owning a .539 xSLG. At +550 or better, Devers is worth a look.

The Blue Jays have really struggled against Ranger Suarez, with Toronto hitters posting a lifetime .443 OPS across 60 at-bats. While Jose Soriano’s stuff can be electric, his control remains a concern, as he ranks in the 17th percentile in walk rate at Baseball Savant. I'm siding with Boston on the road.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.