MLB Picks

Shane Drohan and Bubba Chandler both bring strong first-inning profiles into Game 2. Drohan owns a 7-1 NRFI/YRFI record with five straight clean opening frames, while Chandler is 13-4 and has also gone five consecutive appearances without a first-inning run. Milwaukee’s lineup has been especially quiet early as well lately.

Miles Mikolas ranks in the 20th percentile in xSLG vs. left-handed bats. Ben Rice has feasted on pitchers near the bottom of the barrel, recording at least two bases in 12 of 14 games against starters in the 30th percentile or lower.

Rice has elite power, and Mikolas’ inability to miss bats is going to get him in trouble.

Back Rice to -150.

Since the start of June, both Logan Gilbert (31.5%) and Griffin Jax (29.7%) rank in the Top 13 in K% among SP with at least 25 IP. 

Tampa Bay's reliance of late on the longball will cost them runs while Gilbert's in the game, and Jax will generate plenty of swings and misses against this swing-happy Seattle lineup.

The indoor conditions will benefit both pitchers and their high-spin arsenals as they limit the scoring threat. 

The Phillies have scored two or fewer in four of the last six games, and the Tigers have allowed three or fewer in six straight and nine of 10. Detroit starts Casey Mize, who has a 2.64 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 0.977 WHIP, and is striking out a batter an inning, all career bests. He has a 1.32 ERA and 0.585 WHIP in his last two starts.

The key will be whether Sanchez can shake off his funk. In addition to allowing three homers and five runs to K.C. last time out, he’s allowed 4+ runs and more hits than innings in three of his last five outings.

In-form offenses have teed off on Nick Lodolo all season long. Isolating matchups with teams ranking Top-20 in ISO and OPS in the 10 games prior, Lodolo owns a 7.52 ERA and has allowed 2.05 homers per nine innings.

The Chicago Cubs rank Top-5 in both categories over that span so Lodolo is in for a treat.

Back Chicago to -120.

Reynaldo Lopez has not fared well against lefties this season, and that’s been especially evident of late. He ranks in the 23rd percentile in xwOBA vs. LHH over his last six starts.

JJ Wetherholt has had a field day in similar spots, clearing 1.5 H+R+R in 14 of 18 games (77.8%) against starting pitchers slotting in the 30th percentile or worse in the six stars prior.

Bet to -140.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto should have a vintage outing against a bad Arizona lineup (70 wRC+ against RHP). He's in peak form, posting a 0.77 WHIP and .163 AVG against in his last eight starts, but L.A.'s lineup is not (99 wRC+ against RHP in L14). Arizona's bullpen has been lights out in that span (2.91 ERA, 3.05 SIERA), and the team is 3-13 O/U in its last 16 away contests. 

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.