MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Esmerlyn Valdez in the 88th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Esmerlyn Valdez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The #4 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting BABIP to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Esmerlyn Valdez will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Drew Rasmussen gives Tampa Bay a stable run-prevention base. His 4.5% walk rate limits free traffic, and his .278 xwOBA allowed is the right profile against a Yankees lineup still trying to win through isolated power. New York’s bullpen setup is also better positioned than a typical bullpen game with multiple arms available that induce soft contact. Play to -115. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Citi Field.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.

Blaze Alexander is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this game.. Typically, hitters like Blaze Alexander who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as David Peterson.. The Chicago Cubs infield defense grades out as the best among every team playing today.. Chicago's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Blaze Alexander, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.. Blaze Alexander has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 6.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last 7 days.

Travis Bazzana is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game.. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Bailey Ober throws from, Travis Bazzana will have an edge in today's game.. Travis Bazzana has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.2-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 88.6-mph EV.. Travis Bazzana has exhibited favorable plate discipline this year, ranking in the 75th percentile with a 1.8 K/BB rate.

This year, Randal Grichuk has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 67% of his appearances when starting against southpaw.. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.. Randal Grichuk has been lucky this year, putting up a .359 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .330 — a .029 gap.. With a 4.22 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Randal Grichuk has displayed poor plate discipline, ranking in the 13th percentile.. Ranking in the 11th percentile, Randal Grichuk has put up a .258 BABIP since the start of last season.

When it comes to his batting average skill, Otto Lopez is projected as the 7th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Otto Lopez is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among all the teams today.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Otto Lopez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Otto Lopez has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 7.5% seasonal rate to 13% in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dillon Dingler in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Dillon Dingler is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Comerica Park as the 10th-best venue in the majors for RHB batting average.. Comerica Park has the shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 82%.

THE BAT makes this fair price closer to -140, projecting the Phillies to win by 2.00 runs while scoring 6.33. Philadelphia's left-handed bats should see plenty of right-handed pitching with two of Cincinnati's three lefties in the bullpen likely unavailable. Two of the Reds' best left-handed relievers, Caleb Ferguson and Brock Burke, aren't expected to pitch. The matchup also sets up well against Brady Singer. Left-handed hitters own a .910 OPS against him this season, and he has surrendered 20 home runs, with 14 coming against lefties. Singer ranks among the bottom 20 qualified starters in both HR/9 and BlastContact%, and only three starters have allowed more home runs this year. On the other side, Jesus Luzardo has been dominant over the last 30 days, allowing just six earned runs and one home run across his last five starts (30.1 innings). Philly has won eight straight Luzardo starts, with six of those coming on the road.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Logan Henderson to be limited in today's game, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.. Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 18.9% underlying K%.. Todd Tichenor profiles as a Hitters Umpire and is anticipated to be in charge of the strike zone in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Busch Stadium as the worst venue in MLB for strikeouts.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Globe Life Field as the worst park in baseball for run-scoring.. In MLB, Globe Life Field's CF fences are the 6th-deepest.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Jake Burger's average exit velocity has declined of late; his 90-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 85.9-mph in the past 7 days.. Jake Burger's launch angle this season (12.3°) is considerably lower than his 17° figure last season.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Manny Machado ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Manny Machado is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. Among all parks, Petco Park's centerfield dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. Petco Park has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Manny Machado will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Hunter Goodman projects as the 15th-best home run hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.5-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Carson Whisenhunt throws from, Hunter Goodman will have an edge in today's game.. Hunter Goodman has a ton of pop (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (29.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Carson Whisenhunt is a pitch-to-contact type (13th percentile K%) — great news for Goodman.

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.