Yordan Alvarez finds himself in one of the premier home run spots on Wednesday's slate against Jameson Taillon. The Blue Jays right hander has struggled badly against left handed hitters, allowing plenty of barrels, elevated contact, and elite expected numbers. Alvarez enters with one of the highest Batters-Box matchup ratings of the day while covering Taillon's entire pitch mix. His long term trends are just as impressive, homering in nearly 30% of his elite rated games this season and almost 40% of those at home. Sometimes the obvious play is the right one, and this is one of those spots.

How can you not be romantic about baseball? Yesterday, with Tarik Skubal on the mound, we faded the Dodgers and backed the Cubs at +190. Today, with Eric Lauer starting for Los Angeles, we're backing the Dodgers. That's sports betting—it's all about price. Shota Imanaga gets the ball for Chicago, and while a left-handed starter may seem like a tough matchup for Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Kyle Tucker, his pitch sequencing tells a different story. Imanaga relies on elevating his four-seam fastball to set up his splitter, but the Dodgers' left-handed bats have the bat control to handle pitches at the top of the zone. Polymarket has Los Angeles as a 48-cent underdog, but I make the Dodgers a 52-cent favorite, which is why I'm hitting the button.

The Under fits because both starters enter in strong form and New York’s bullpen has been sharp lately. Scott is limiting barrels and homers, while Bibee gives Cleveland stability. Even with the Guardians' bullpen showing risk, the Mets' offense has not been productive enough to score in bunches tonight. 

CJ Abrams finds himself in one of the better home run spots on Wednesday's slate against Phillies right hander Andrew Painter. Painter has struggled to limit hard contact lately, especially against left handed hitters, who continue to barrel the baseball and produce elite expected numbers against him. Abrams enters with an elite Batters-Box rating and strong arsenal coverage, while his recent production against right handed pitching has been excellent. He's already homered in 25% of his elite rated games this season, and this matchup gives him another opportunity to leave the yard. At the current price, this is one of the stronger value home run plays available.

Will Warren’s Achilles heel is conceding power, and that shouldn’t be much of an issue against the St. Louis Cardinals.

They own a putrid .090 ISO and sit 29th in HR/FB against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days.

While the Yankees have hit for some power, Andre Pallante’s 96th percentile ground ball rate will help take that out of the equation.

Bet to -130.

Muketaka Murakami continues to be the engine of the White Sox lineup and draws another excellent matchup Wednesday against Sonny Gray. The rookie has been scorching hot against right handed pitching, pairing elite production with outstanding quality of contact, including a 70.6% hard hit rate and nearly a 30% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances. Gray has shown signs of vulnerability lately, allowing plenty of hard contact to left handed hitters. Murakami also enters with an elite Batters-Box rating and strong arsenal coverage, while his elite rated road trends make this one of the strongest home run values on the board.

The Under 7.5 fits because both offenses enter cold, with Milwaukee at 90 wRC+ over its last six games and Pittsburgh at 61 over the last week. Harrison’s shorter leash brings a reliable Brewers bullpen in early, while Pittsburgh’s relief corps has also been sharp enough to keep scoring contained.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Luis Castillo's White Sox debut could be a rough one, as Red Sox hitters own a .338/.397/.584 slash line against the veteran right-hander. Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez enters this matchup with an average exit velocity that ranks in the 91st percentile at Baseball Savant, so take Boston to stay hot at Fenway. Playable to -180.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.