MLB Picks

I'm a little late to the Dansby Swanson power surge, but for a guy with seven home runs over the last two weeks and the fifth-best slugging percentage in baseball during that stretch, today might be the best spot yet to ride the hot bat. Dean Kremer gets the ball for the Orioles, and that pushes a lot of the Cubs' home run props into +EV territory. Kremer is making just his second start after a lengthy IL stint and is one of the best home run targets on the board. He has allowed a homer in each of his four starts this season, ranks among the bottom 30 starters in HR/9 over the last three seasons, and gives up plenty of fly balls. I've been hesitant to play Swanson's home run prop because he still hits in the lower third of the order, but he's getting his four plate appearances and has been hitting the ball harder than 99% of the league of late. The fair price is closer to +400.

Cedric Mullins has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (72% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The #3 field in the league for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Hitting from the opposite that Gerrit Cole throws from, Cedric Mullins will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.8% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Cedric Mullins will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez as the 7th-best batter in the league when assessing his batting average ability.. Otto Lopez is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.. Otto Lopez will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Gelof in the 81st percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Zack Gelof has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (82% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest fences among all major league parks.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the schedule today at 87°.

PNC Park profiles as the #4 park in MLB for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 5th-hottest temperature on the slate at 85°.. Hitting from the opposite that Jared Jones throws from, Dominic Smith will have an advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 94th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Christian Walker is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. Nationals Park has the 7th-shallowest fences among all major league parks — generally good for home runs.. Batting from the opposite that Foster Griffin throws from, Christian Walker will have the upper hand in today's game.

How about a square pick at a good price with an elite matchup? The Royals are using an opener today before turning things over to Triple-A call-up Mitch Spence for the bulk innings. It's already a bullpen missing three arms after yesterday's "baseball game" that produced 28 runs, 32 hits, and three errors. Juan Soto went deep against right-hander Seth Lugo last night in the fourth inning, yet his home run price is nearly 100 points longer today in an even better matchup. Spence has allowed 11 home runs in 59+ innings this season and has struggled to keep the ball in the park. This has the makings of another loose baseball game with plenty of home run upside for the Mets. Soto ranks among the Top 25 hitters in both slugging and ISO over the last two weeks, and I make this home run prop closer to +270.

Sal Stewart's batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Sal Stewart is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The #1 field in baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Sal Stewart has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

When assessing his home run ability, Royce Lewis ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Royce Lewis is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 80%.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Royce Lewis will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Willson Contreras ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #7 ballpark in the league for boosting offensive stats to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 85°.. Willson Contreras pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Jordan Walker is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-shortest average fence height in MLB.. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Jordan Walker will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Harrison today.

Denzer Guzman has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Denzer Guzman will have an advantage in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 4th-best hitter in MLB.. Shohei Ohtani is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. The #2 venue in baseball for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. Dodger Stadium has the shortest average fence height in the league.. Shohei Ohtani will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Feltner today.

D-backs starter Jose Cabrera struggled to find the strike zone in his last outing, surrendering three earned runs over 3 1/3 innings against Milwaukee. Arizona will also have a tough time against Michael King, who has held D-backs hitters to a .546 OPS across 62 at-bats. The Padres are playable to -150.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.