Pete Alonso has consistently cashed this prop in elite Batters-Box matchups, going over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs in 62% of 137 elite rated games over the last three seasons. At home, that number climbs to nearly 70%. Tonight, he gets an outstanding matchup against Grayson Rodriguez, who has struggled badly against right handed hitters, allowing plenty of hard contact and extra base damage. Alonso is also swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball, combining elite recent production with outstanding quality of contact. Everything points toward another productive night, making this one of my favorite player props on the board.

Projected Phils' starter Jesus Luzardo got blasted in his last time out, but before that he had given up just one earned run or less in six straight outings. I think he finds his form against the Nats on Tuesday. Our projections also have the Phillies scoring 5.78 runs, which will provide enough of a cushion to cover.

The value is better for Ivan Herrera than for Jordan Walker, but those are the two names I've isolated as home run options. I don't like any lefties today because of the wind blowing toward home from right field, which may suppress power across the board. But I will grab a tiny, half-unit share of Herrera to continue mashing against lefties.

Boston enters tonight on a 14-3 tear since the All-Star break. Patrick Sandoval owns a 3.32 ERA through four starts, all Red Sox wins, and now faces a White Sox lineup that’s been among baseball’s worst against lefties lately. He's backed by a bullpen that leads MLB in ERA and FIP over the past two weeks. Davis Martin gets the ball for the White Sox and he's unravelling after a strong start to the season, posting a 6.00 ERA across five July starts.

Griffin Conine is in another premium spot against Braves right hander Grant Holmes. Conine carries an elite Batters-Box rating while matching up well against nearly Holmes' entire pitch mix. He's also been scorching hot lately, posting elite quality of contact numbers alongside a 244 wRC+, .508 SLG, and .950 OPS over his last 10 games. Holmes has struggled to miss barrels and has been especially vulnerable to left handed hitters, allowing plenty of hard contact and power. With Conine's recent form and the favorable matchup working together, this is an excellent opportunity to back him over his hits, runs, and RBIs prop.

MacKenzie Gore is better than his ERA suggests, the Giants struggle vs. left-handed pitching (and, well, all pitching), and Globe Life Field suppresses offense with the dome closed. I like the Rangers to win a low-scoring game by a couple of runs as the offense does just enough damage against San Francisco starter Blade Tidwell.

You just knew this would happen when Tarik Skubal joined the Los Angeles Dodgers. Pairing a back-to-back Cy Young winner with baseball's best lineup creates the perception of an unbeatable team, but betting is about price, not reputation. The Dodgers are trading at a much shorter number than they should because the market has overreacted to Skubal's arrival. That's why I'm backing the Cubs, and fading Skubal and the Dodgers will likely become a recurring theme for the rest of the regular season. Chicago is expected to start seven right-handed bats, giving Skubal competitive at-bats from top to bottom. Even hitters like Ian Happ, Tyrone Taylor, and Dansby Swanson near the bottom of the order should force long counts and drive up his pitch count. The Cubs are trading as a 35-cent underdog, but I make them closer to a 41-cent underdog, which is why I'm backing Chicago.

The Seattle Mariners are not hitting for average or power, and they own the third highest soft contact rate over the past month.

Emerson Hancock is exceptional at avoiding walks, and limiting free baserunners is important against an in-form Tigers attack.

I make -129 the fair price and see value on the Under.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.