Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on April 22, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
MIL
@
DET
Wed, Apr 22 • 6:40 PM ET
o7.5 (-120)
The Brew Crew has cashed the Over in three of their last four. The Detroit Tigers have also hit the Over in runs in three straight. Both of these bullpens also have ERAs over four, so once the starters have departed, there’s lots of opportunity for runs. Plus, the Milwaukee Brewers are fourth in runs scored, and Detroit is 15th.
DET (-130)
ATL
@
WAS
Wed, Apr 22 • 6:45 PM ET
NYY
@
BOS
Wed, Apr 22 • 6:45 PM ET
u7.5 (+100)
Suarez's groundball rate of 46% plays well against the various weak spots in the Yankees' lineups, which likely means we don’t see many big innings. Ryan McMahon, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jose Caballero all have started this season with around a 50% groundball rate, which is particularly problematic in this spot. On the other side, the Red Sox's weak contact against lefties should show up here.
NYY (-131)
Boston's lineup compounds the issues Fried presents: the Red Sox have a 50% groundball rate and just 29% hard contact against left-handed pitching this season, the lowest hard-hit rate vs LHP in the AL East. Fried does not need to strike hitters out to dominate. He induces the weakest contact in the game, and Boston is already predisposed to weak contact against lefties. Red Sox lefty Ranger Suarez's 4.42 expected ERA tells you his 3.22 surface ERA is living on borrowed time, and the Yankees hit lefties quite hard, posting the fourth-highest hard-hit rate against southpaws this season.
MIN
@
NYM
Wed, Apr 22 • 7:10 PM ET
The Mets' offense showed vague signs of life last night when Francisco Lindor hit a three-run homer. Minnesota eventually pushed through runs as well, and even in a game where both starting pitchers were excellent, the total of 7.5 proved too low. I expect a similar outcome tonight. The Twins are scoring 5.09 runs per game, and they’ll get into the New York bullpen, as Holmes is averaging only 5.8 innings per start.
Juan Soto returns to the New York Mets lineup tonight, and he’s desperately needed. The Mets have scored just 13 total runs over their last eight games heading into tonight’s contest, and bringing back Soto’s .355 batting average and .412 OBP is the spark they're looking for. New York will also benefit from Minnesota calling up left-hander Connor Prielipp for his MLB debut. Prielipp posted a 4.03 ERA across 82.2 innings of minor league action in 2025. Meanwhile, Mets starter Clay Holmes sports a 1.96 ERA through four starts, and the righty should help New York pull away at Citi Field.
PHI
@
CHC
Wed, Apr 22 • 7:40 PM ET
o8.5 (+110)
Taijuan Walker has allowed 4+ runs in three of his four appearances and that is no coincidence.
He ranks in the ninth percentile or lower in whiff rate, xERA, and xBA. He can’t miss bats and is allowing a ton of quality contact.
The Phillies have gotten 4.2 innings or less from their starter in three straight games and used five relievers yesterday, leaving their bullpen vulnerable behind him.
Matthew Boyd has allowed a sky-high 17.3% barrel rate early on and last pitched April 1st, which is less than ideal when taking on a Phillies team with real power.
CHC (-170)
The Phillies are expected to use Kyle Backhus as an opener before turning to Taijuan Walker for a handful of innings. That’s a recipe for disaster. Backhus has allowed four runs and a couple of homers in 6 2/3 innings while Walker’s struggles have been even more alarming. He owns a 9.16 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, and has surrendered six homers in less than 19 innings of work. That has resulted in a -0.81 WPA (win probability added), the worst mark of today’s projected arms.
PIT
@
TEX
Wed, Apr 22 • 8:05 PM ET
SD
@
COL
Wed, Apr 22 • 8:40 PM ET
SD -1.5 (+100)
Don’t let the sub-4.00 ERA from Tomoyuki Sugano fool you. He’s been one of the luckiest pitchers to start the year, carrying a 7.71 xERA vs. a 3.92 ERA. He’s getting hit hard, running a low BABIP, and stranding 88% of runners — clear regression signals. The San Diego Padres, sitting at 16-7 SU, are well-positioned to stack runs and win by multiple runs. A late comeback is unlikely with a fully available bullpen, including Mason Miller, who was rested yesterday. The fair price on the moneyline sits around -195 versus a -165 market, and the run line breakeven is closer to -130, making +100 strong value. The Rockies were just shut out last night, and I'm hoping that struggle continues into today.
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+400)
I had this start circled for five days. Tomoyuki Sugano owns a sub-4.00 ERA, but his xERA is closer to 8.00. He’s been wildly lucky while allowing the eighth-worst Blast Contact% among starters, and he’s also posted one of the worst HR/9 rates over the last two seasons. In short, the San Diego Padres are a great place to look for dingers on Wednesday at Coors Field, especially with poor hitting weather elsewhere. Fernando Tatis Jr. is +400 to go deep with a fair price around +330, per Covers projections powered by THE BAT. He’s the best +EV home run on the board this morning. It’s surprising he hasn’t gone deep yet, but that’s why the price is discounted. He leads the team with a 27.5% Blast Contact% rate, and it feels like a matter of time before that breaks through.
CHW
@
AZ
Wed, Apr 22 • 9:40 PM ET
Munetaka Murakami o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
The slugger has eight RBI across his last four games, and he’s also gone deep in four straight appearances. Murakami cannot be stopped. He was 3-for-5 in Tuesday’s series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks with a home run, an RBI, and three hits.
LAD
@
SF
Wed, Apr 22 • 9:45 PM ET
LAD -1.5 (-125)
Shohei Ohtani looks dominant early, opening the season with a 0.50 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP. That WHIP aligns strongly with a Giants lineup that’s ranked 27th in on-base % over the last two weeks. On the other side, Tyler Mahle has been obliterated in two of his last three starts and draws a Dodgers offense that excels vs right-handed pitching. Los Angeles is also 5-1 after losses this season. Expect a motivated version of the team tonight.
Shohei Ohtani o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-122)
Ohtani racked up 10 Ks in his last start against the New York Mets. While San Fran is around the middle of the pack in team strikeouts, they’re swinging and missing a lot more lately, striking out nearly 10 times per game across their previous three contests. Also, Ohtani has collected 16 Ks in 12 innings of work at home.
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