MLB Picks

Generous winds are blowing out to right field at PNC Park, and the pitching matchup is working in their favor as well. Keller has allowed 4+ runs in all but one of his last seven starts, posting a 7.64 ERA over that stretch. His flyball rate is lower than his career average, and his HR/FB rate is starting to normalize after some early-season months of keeping it below 10%. His SIERA and xFIP are both at five-year highs, suggesting these bad times are here to stay. Naylor has seen Keller eight times in his career, taking him deep once while hitting .375. I love the Mariners team total Over 4.5 today, and Naylor is one of the better +EV home run props on the board with a fair price closer to +520.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Brandon Nimmo ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Brandon Nimmo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sandy Alcantara in today's matchup.. Brandon Nimmo hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Putting up a 94-mph average exit velocity over the past 14 days, Brandon Nimmo has been in great form lately.

Casey Mize returned from his second IL stint of the season last Wednesday and admitted his last outing was undone by too many three-ball counts, allowing three runs in just over 4 inning against a similar hitting profile team in the Houston Astros. The Yankees lineup still has Paul Goldschmidt turning time back with a .898 OPS and Ben Rice (.389 xwOBA) doing damage in Aaron Judge's absence. While I think Mize has some success, he'll give up enough here with the Tigers doing the heavy lifting. Play to 8.

Salvador Perez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Tropicana Field as the 3rd-best park in the majors for right-handed home runs.. Salvador Perez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shane McClanahan in today's matchup.. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme groundball batters like Salvador Perez tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Shane McClanahan.

Zach Littell enters tonight in a tough spot against left handed hitters, with recent trends showing massive vulnerability. Over his last 60 lefties faced, he has allowed a 74% elevation rate, and at home this season left handed bats are hitting .333 with a .753 slug and .478 wOBA against him while lifting the ball at a 75.7% clip. That profile sets up perfectly for Bryce Harper, who grades elite in Batters-Box models and ranks second on the slate in current season rating. Harper has also torched righties recently, hitting .391 with a .957 slug and strong power metrics. He is the preferred target over Schwarber in this matchup.

Mets righty Kodai Senga sports a 5.12 xERA ranking in the 17th percentile and has negative pitch values on three of his most frequent four offerings, and the Cubs are rolling at the plate. Chicago paces the majors in wOBA while ranking fifth in ISO and fourth in xwOBA across their past nine games. I also expect the Mets to chip in offensively. New York ranks 21st in BABIP despite a 10th-ranked xwOBA to go along with a fifth-ranked hard-hit rate across the past 30 days, after all.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects JJ Bleday in the 90th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. JJ Bleday is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Great American Ball Park projects as the #1 field in Major League Baseball for LHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Sproat throws from, JJ Bleday will have an edge in today's game.

The Chicago White Sox have posted high-end metrics across the board against left-handed pitching. They have also hit more homers than anybody.

Even without Jose Ramirez and Chase DeLauter, the Cleveland Guardians have scored at least three runs in five of their last six games. They should still chip in.

Play the Over to -130.

Justin Wrobleski continues to thrive for Los Angeles, posting a 2.72 ERA and walking just 0.76 hitters per nine innings over his last four appearances. Minnesota's bullpen owns a 5.50 FIP and has allowed 2.08 home runs per nine innings over the last two weeks, and they will start an opener here. 

Iván Herrera stands out as strong value on his total bases prop tonight, with a smaller home run sprinkle also in play at around 7 to 1. The Cardinals DH has been locked in recently, hitting .333 with a 1.100 OPS, backed by a 43.6% hard hit rate and 7.7% barrel rate over his last 60 plate appearances against left handed pitching. He draws Eduardo Rodríguez, who has shown real vulnerability on the road to right handed hitters, allowing consistent hard contact and elevated contact quality over his last 60 batters faced. Herrera’s strong matchup profile and pitch coverage make his bases prop appealing in this spot.

The #1 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. The weather forecast forecasts the best hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The switch-hitting Willi Castro will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Sonny Gray.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Willi Castro will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jo Adell in the 94th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Jo Adell is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fences among all stadiums.. Jo Adell will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.. Jo Adell has hit one of the hardest balls in baseball over the past 14 days — 112-mph — which is a favorable indicator of recent form and raw power.

JR Ritchie has struggled lately, posting a 6.70 FIP and 46.2% hard-hit rate over his last 10 innings while carrying a 5.24 road FIP. Griffin Canning has been much better at Petco Park, and Atlanta's offense enters cold with just a .120 ISO over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Shea Langeliers as the league's 16th-best home run hitter.. Shea Langeliers is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 20.7-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Robbie Ray throws from, Shea Langeliers will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Among all the teams today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants.

The Cubs are heating up at the dish with a fifth-ranked wOBA, ISO and xwOBA over the past two weeks while averaging 5.7 runs per game. Chicago lefty Shota Imanaga has also flipped the script with just a single run allowed and opposing hitters limited to a miniscule 19.3% squared-up contact rate and 3.5% blast contact rate across 10 2/3 innings over his past two starts. The Cubbies should also have their way with struggling New York Mets righty Kodai Senga. His 5.12 xERA ranks in the 17th percentile, and he has negative pitch values on three of his most frequent four offerings, after all.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.