MLB Picks

Pricing is doing the heavy lifting, per usual, with the best projected Over K prop on the board today. Bryce Elder is getting a 100-pitch leash these days and working deep into games, recording 18+ outs in all but one of his last seven starts since the All-Star break. The projection is 89 pitches and 4.35 Ks, but that might be conservative. If he gets to 95+ pitches today, that K projection could move above 4.5, making this a good buy at even money or better. At the current projection, the fair price is around +110 to +115. The Giants are not a threatening offense and own the third-worst K% over the last two weeks at 26.7%, with that number being even worse on the road. Six innings and five Ks at this big price is not a tough ask. Also, who doesn't want action on the first game of the day?

I just can't quit the Rays - and for good reason. They're the fourth-best cover team in baseball (55.2%) and should have no problem with the Mets today. Robert Stock has been as shaky as they come for New York, allowing seven earned runs off 10 hits against the Brewers his last time on the mound. With an xERA of 4.90 this year, he'll struggle to keep one of baseball's most potent offenses off the basepaths. A struggling starter with a taxed bullpen behind him usually isn't a recipe for success.

It's that time of the baseball season when it's tough for the books to project pitchers with serious question marks, and that includes Will Dion. Dion is a lefty who has been pitching in a bulk-relief role and has yet to start a game this year. He got up to 56 pitches in his last appearance, so 70 pitches is on the table today. He currently projects for 3.71 Ks on just 65 pitches, leaving plenty of room for him to outperform that projection. The Washington starter just had four strikeouts against the Marlins two games ago on just 48 pitches and nine total outs. He's better than a K-per-inning pitcher and struck out seven batters on 64 pitches earlier this month, so those alt Overs are well within his range of outcomes today. With a slight chance of rain (23%), though, I'll stick with the main-market Over. The fair price on a 70-pitch leash is -135.

Running it back with the Burger man after he cashed on an RBI single with a .105 xBA before following it up with a 369-foot flyout to the warning track. The Texas Rangers slugger has been making a ton of hard contact and barreling the ball. In his last 10 games, Burger owns a .648 xSLG and .250 ISO, with a 50% hard-hit rate and 22.7% barrel rate. He now draws Athletics left-hander Gage Jump, whose last 60 right-handed hitters have a .328 xBA, .515 xSLG and .204 ISO. Burger has also been crushing left-handed pitching, posting a .714 SLG, 1.047 OPS and .428 ISO over his last 30 at-bats. With his recent contact quality and a week since his last home run, Burger feels due to go deep tonight.

A career-high 128 innings are beginning to catch up to Houston righty Peter Lambert, and he’s posted a 4.49 xERA and 4.90 xFIP across 19 1/3 innings over his past four starts. Control has been an issue, too, with Lambert issuing 10 free passes during the skid. So, with Houston also ranking last in xwOBA and striking out at the sixth-highest clip over the past two weeks, I see value on the White Sox as an underdog. Chicago enters ranked eighth in xwOBA with a league-high walk rate during the same stretch, after all.

Tanner Gordon would rather not pitch at home, as his ERA is more than five points higher at altitude than on the road. He was recently moved back into a starter role after losing it and threw his second-highest pitch total of the season at 90 in his last turn. This is a pitcher who hasn't consistently been given a 90-pitch leash as a starter. He's 5-2 to the Under on this number as a starter and has gone 75, 74, 94, and 82 pitches in his four home starts this year. His bullpen is also fresh, with just one arm used yesterday. The Orioles are a Top-10 slugging team over the last two weeks and could easily send a fringe starter like Gordon to the showers early. The projection is 83 pitches and 14.76 outs, giving us plenty of room to attack this Under.

Every five days, I need to bet on batters facing Aaron Nola to go deep. It's not an obsession; it's just good math. His 32 home runs allowed now rank second in the league, and he sits among the bottom 20 MLB starters in Barrel% since June 1. His form is decent, but he has still allowed a dinger in nine straight starts, with 13 total over those 51 innings. Lars Nootbaar at 14% is the ticket I want tonight. He's been Arizona's best bat over the last two weeks, leading the club in basically every offensive statistic while going yard three times, including twice over the weekend. There is some pinch-hit risk against lefties, but he should be batting leadoff and get his four plate appearances, with three of them coming against Nola.