Croatia vs Argentina Prediction, Odds, and Pick: Messi, Argentina Avoid World Cup Stunner as Favorite

Croatia turned the World Cup odds board upside down on Friday as they held Brazil to a draw until they reached penalties and sent the then-favorites home. 

Their reward is a second straight World Cup semifinal and a date with Lionel Messi, whose quest for the one honor that alludes him got a scare from the Netherlands but nothing more, as Argentina similarly advanced on penalties.

A spot in the final is on the line on Tuesday. Get set for what will be a tense battle with our World Cup picks for Croatia vs. Argentina, with kickoff on December 13. 

Croatia vs Argentina odds

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Croatia vs Argentina picks and predictions

Somehow, impossibly, Croatia survived their quarterfinal and advanced to the World Cup semifinal. They did it in a manner that was an awful lot like the majority of their performances in Qatar.

Croatia made it incredibly difficult on Brazil, with a low, compact defensive block when in their third, and relied on their midfield three — a superior trio to almost any they could come across — to help them maintain a semblance of control on the game, as opposed to just hanging on against a superior foe. 

If Croatia are to again do the impossible, upset Argentina, and advance to their second straight World Cup final, they're going to do it in the way they know. They're going to survive 90 minutes and look to outwork Argentina in extra time, and then win in penalties if needed. So, don't expect any output out of Croatia before the referee blows full-time.

The books are, hilariously, already well prepared for the match that is ahead of us. The Under on a goal total of 2.5 is sitting at -188 (Over +162) while "No" on both teams to score is -200 ("Yes" +125). There's still value to be found, however, in this slog by backing Argentina to keep a clean sheet at -110. If anyone's going to break this deadlock in regular time, it's going to be Argentina.  

Of the semifinalists, Croatia rank third (ahead of Morocco) in: goals, (1.06), expected goals (1.03), shot-creating actions (15.88), and shots (9.71) per 90 minutes.

Not for nothing, Argentina have proven to be a stout defensive team. Of the four remaining teams, they've conceded the fewest xG (0.35), shot-creating actions (6.75), and shots (4.12) per 90. 

The physicality of Argentina's defensive line, like Brazil's, is well-equipped to deal with the direct play of Croatia's attack and they'll successfully keep them out for 90 minutes. 

My best bet: Argentina clean sheet (-110 at bet365)

Croatia vs Argentina side analysis

I think Argentina will advance to the second World Cup final of the Messi era but as Croatia proved against Brazil, if you give them the benefit of 30 minutes and penalties — anything can happen.

No bother, however, because there aren't exactly any markets that appeal to get behind Argentina. Between the difficulty they've had mounting sustained attacks against strong midfield this World Cup, without Gio Lo Celso, and the brutal task of breaking down Croatia, the 3-way moneyline is unappealing even at -125. The possibility of extra time is just too high. 

Then there's the "to qualify" market, in which Argentina are -275 with Croatia at +220. Your best bet is parlaying Argentina to qualify with something else — such as the goal total...

Croatia vs Argentina Over/Under analysis

As highlighted in the best bet, books are anticipating a low-scoring tightly contested match and the odds reflect as much. Those short odds in the typical markets mean I am on the sidelines for the most part.

In addition to the Argentina clean-sheet play, however, I am going to do a simple, two-leg parlay with a good return: Argentina to qualify (-275) and Under 3.0 goals (-200) gives you odds of +115. 

Croatia vs Argentina game info

Croatia vs Argentina key injuries

Croatia: None.
Argentina: None.

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