A difficult season will get even worse for Manchester United when they take on Aston Villa this weekend.
My Man United vs. Aston Villa predictions show that the visitors are the value play in a game where defenses are set to struggle.
Read on for my free picks for Nov. 8, with kickoff scheduled for 11:30 a.m. ET on NBC.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Man United vs Aston Villa predictions
My Man United vs Aston Villa top pick: Aston Villa to win (31% probability)
Manchester United's status as clear favorites makes little sense when you compare the form figures of these two teams.
Michael Carrick's hosts have won just one Premier League match all season (1-4-4) and find themselves in the bottom half of the table. Their record at their Old Trafford home is a dismal 1-1-2.
Aston Villa are five points above United, having gone 3-3-3 so far. They're one of the division's better road sides, too (2-1-1), landing victories over Newcastle (1-0) and Tottenham (3-2) in their last two EPL away trips.
Yet United's probability is 45%, while Aston Villa is the 31% dog. The Villans are the value pick. Play this up to 35%.
My Man United vs Aston Villa Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (61% probability)
When glancing at the goal stats, the first impression you get is that Under 2.5 goals is the smart selection.
The Under has landed in 10 of the teams' combined 18 (56%) EPL fixtures, and in half of the eight games where Man United were at home and Aston Villa away.
The xG (expected goals) figures tell a different story, however. The xG in six of the same sample of eight matches was 2.50 or higher, and the average xG across Man United's four home games and Aston Villa's four away games is a whopping 3.31.
Take the Over (61%) rather than the Under (40%). Play it up to 65%.
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Man United vs Aston Villa combo
Aston Villa to win
Both teams to score
Man United's team news is another reason why I expect a high-scoring encounter. Four potential members of their defensive line are either ruled out or questionable.
The visitors have the attacking talent to exploit vulnerabilities in the hosts' back line, but Aston Villa's own defense looks fragile: they have conceded at least one goal in 12 of their 15 fixtures in all competitions.
An Aston Villa win and both teams to score is our top combo play.
Man United vs Aston Villa odds
Man United
Aston VillaOdds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Man United vs Aston Villa
| Location | Old Trafford, Manchester, England |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026 |
| Time | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Man United vs Aston Villa key injuries
Man United: Harry Maguire CB (Questionable), Lisandro Martinez CB (Out), Patrick Dorgu LB (Questionable), Luke Shaw LB (Out), Carlos Baleba CM (Out), Manuel Ugarte CM (Out), Marcus Rashford LW (Questionable), Benjamin Sesko ST (Out).
Aston Villa: Matty Cash RB (Out), Aaron Wan-Bissaka RB (Questionable), Matteo Ruggeri LB (Out), Amadou Onana CM (Out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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