Winner takes all is the mantra for both the United States and El Salvador when the two teams face off on Monday night in Orlando. With a spot in the Nations League final on the line, both teams will go into the match knowing that a victory will see them claim the top spot in their group.
But only El Salvador must get a win in order to advance. After crushing Grenada 7-1 on Friday night, the Yanks sit atop the group and know a draw also sees them maintain that position, but playing for a draw could be risky against an El Salvador squad desperate to walk away with all three points.
How will Team USA approach proceedings, and what does that mean for you in regards to making money on the match? Let’s dive into those very topics in our United States vs. El Salvador free betting picks below.
USA vs El Salvador best odds
|Over 2.5 (-156)||Total||Under 2.5 (+128)|
Odds courtesy of FanDuel on March 26, 2023.
USA vs El Salvador picks and predictions
It took me a long time to find an angle on this match that didn’t involve an amount of juice that made me uncomfortable to play – let alone to recommend to others. The United States are heavily favored to win this match, especially on the heels of their beatdown of Grenada. They’re also expected to do it with plenty of goals on display.
And why not? The United States put Grenada to the sword on Friday night. I expected the hosts to sit back and defend, but they did the exact opposite and took advantage, scoring in the fifth minute and adding three more before the referee blew his whistle for halftime.
Grenada scored a goal as well and had opportunities to do so throughout the match against a backline that was a bit unorthodox. Fullback Joe Scally was playing in central defense as the entire preferred starting back four watched from the sidelines. However, he could be returned to his fullback role after an impressive performance.
So with the backline at full strength, a clean sheet is very probable, but also heavily juiced. So instead, I decided to look at what parlay options might bring prices down to a reasonable level. I got a bit creative and found a way to pair a clean sheet with some goals at a much lower price by parlaying at least two goals being scored, with only one team finding the back of the net.
I expect both teams to come out a bit cagey, given what's on the line. A draw gets the job done for the United States, so they have no reason to over-extend early on. El Salvador will not want to expose themselves to the counter-attack like Grenada did, and will also want to hit the Yanks on the break when they get possession.
Should the match get to halftime scoreless or with just one goal, it should open up a bit. The more it opens up as a scoreless affair, the more it favors the United States and the more likely we'll see goals, but I certainly don’t see El Salvador scoring first. They’ve experienced real struggles to score on American soil with zero goals in their last three visits, and a mere three goals in 11 matches.
The visitors are ranked in the Top 80 teams in the world by FIFA and have shown during past qualifying spells that they can be frustrating to play against. Their qualifier last January in the United States saw the Yanks manage just one goal, a strike from Antonee Robinson as the only tally on 17 shots. That’s what I expect them to try to do on Monday night, with an effort to go for the win in the final half hour or so. That will allow the Yanks to get their two goals if they don’t do it sooner.
I would recommend trying to shop around a bit as some books don’t allow this parlay at all, but FanDuel has this priced at -109 currently. It avoids the heavy juice of many other options and gives you the best opportunity to take home some profit.
The United States will keep their fifth clean sheet in the last six meetings, and a pair of goals along with it puts money in your pocket.
My best bet: Both teams to score: No + Over 1.5 (-109 at FanDuel)
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USA vs El Salvador side analysis
There’s no point betting in the 3-way line in this match unless you think El Salvador is going to pull off a result. Just like Friday night, the United States are prohibitively favored, with your best price of -720 being unplayable. It can be put into a parlay, but the impact won’t be a huge one.
The USMNT will be at full strength, minus the absence of Tyler Adams, and I expect a much stronger backline than we saw on Friday night. Christian Pulisic will likely resume his place on the left, but Ricardo Pepi could be rotated out. Yunus Musah should also take his usual starting spot after being rested.
El Salvador is coming off a 1-0 defeat on Wednesday in a friendly against Honduras. They have some solid talent to work with, with Seattle Sounders captain Alex Roldan supporting their attack from his right-back spot.
He’s partnered in defense by Eriq Zavaleta of LA Galaxy. In attack, CF Montreal Romell Quioto will be a threat, and he put two goals past Philadelphia just last weekend. He’s got three goals in his last three for country as well.
In 27 meetings, El Salvador has managed to defeat the Americans just one time. That came 31 years ago and it’s unlikely to be repeated here. The Yanks have won 19 of those matches and are facing a team that has played just three times in the past nine months. There’s little doubt as to who will take home the victory.
USA vs El Salvador Over/Under analysis
As discussed earlier, the total of 2.5 is shaded quite a bit towards the Over. You’re looking at juice of -150 or more and it’s a tricky number given how I expect the match to play out. There's some value on the Under here, especially as I see a 2-0 outcome quite likely.
El Salvador’s last three matches since their last meeting with the USMNT last June have seen them manage a total of one goal. They’ve failed to score against the hosts in four of the last five meetings, and four of the last five meetings have featured two or fewer goals.
While the Under has been the play for quite some time with the USMNT, their attacking play on Friday night against Grenada was a sight to behold. I doubt we see another 7-goal output, but I’ll be surprised if they don’t register at least a pair of goals.
El Salvador is unlikely to contribute to the total, so if you’re not taking the best bet, I’d recommend either playing the total live or getting creative with a parlay.
USA vs El Salvador game info
|Location:||Exploria Stadium, Orlando, FL|
|Date:||Monday, March 27, 2023|
|Time:||7:30 p.m. ET|
USA vs El Salvador key injuries
USA: Tyler Adams M (Out).
El Salvador: No key injuries to report.
USA vs El Salvador weather
It may still be spring, but it’ll feel like summer on Monday night for these two teams. Temps will be in the high-80s near kickoff but should drop down a bit as the match progresses. There will be no chance of rain, and the lower humidity should bring a bit of relief. However, the wind won’t help much in that regard, nor will it impact play.