It’s business time in the Carabao Cup as Southampton face Newcastle, in the first of two legs, with the winner sealing a place in the final at Wembley Stadium. Southampton have struggled in the Premier League but a cup run will give them confidence, while Newcastle are desperate to win their first silverware under the new ownership.
Can Southampton pull off a shock or will Newcastle break them down? Don’t miss our Southampton vs. Newcastle tips and predictions to find out.
Southampton vs Newcastle odds
|Over 2.5 (+100)||Total||Under 2.5 (-125)|
Odds courtesy of bet365 on January 24, 2023.
Southampton vs Newcastle picks and predictions
This Tuesday we have the first of two first legs in the semifinals of the Carabao Cup. Southampton host Newcastle at St Mary’s Stadium, with the winner across both games facing either Nottingham Forest or Manchester United at Wembley.
It wasn’t expected to end up like this with Southampton pulling off a huge shock result as they beat Man City 2-0 in the previous round to set up this date with Newcastle, while the visitors matched their 2-0 scoreline in a win over Leicester City.
Domestically, these two teams are very far apart with Newcastle sitting third in the Premier League table, behind only Arsenal and Man City, and having an incredible season — with European competition almost certainly on the cards next season.
For Southampton, they’re staring relegation in the face, with the club bottom of the Premier League with just four wins all season. Staying in the Premier League is the most important thing for the club but you’d have to think that for the fans a chance of winning a trophy at Wembley would be preferable.
With 24 points separating the two teams in the league, there is a real gulf in class and I believe that on Tuesday we are likely to see those differences tell. When Newcastle got taken over by the Saudis in 2022 it was expected that they’d be winning trophies sooner rather than later, but not many would have expected the potential for silverware quite this soon.
As well as expectations over success it was believed that Newcastle would throw their new money around and sign lots of superstars but instead, the club have invested wisely in young, exciting talents combined with experienced Premier League players. Those players combined with the exceptional coaching from Eddie Howe have turned this into one of the best teams in the country.
I’m very confident that Newcastle will win on Tuesday but instead of taking the -125 on the moneyline I’m recommending taking Newcastle to win to nil at +185 and increasing our potential win.
Nobody in the Premier League has conceded fewer goals than Newcastle — who have allowed just 11 all season — and they’ll be looking to take that form into the Carabao Cup. With that impressive defense, I’m expecting them to keep a clean sheet here against a team who have scored just 13 league goals all season.
My best bet: Newcastle to win to nil (+185 at Unibet)
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Southampton vs Newcastle side analysis
We’ll see both teams sent out with different formations. Nathan Jones’ Southampton prefer a 4-2-3-1, with the key player being England international James Ward-Prowse, who will look to dictate play from midfield and both create and score goals. Ward-Prowse has scored seven goals in all competitions this year and is key to the Saints’ hopes.
Mohammed Salisu is the key figure in the defense, but while he’ll look to keep Newcastle out, it’ll be Kyle Walkers-Peters and Lyanco’s attacking ventures which could be decisive.
There are a lot of young players in the team — such as Samuel Edozie — who are improving each week but it’s the experienced 26-year-old Che Adams who will start up top and be tasked with scoring the goals to put Newcastle to the sword here.
It'll be a 4-3-3 for Newcastle and the back four write themselves, along with Nick Pope in goal. The combination of Dan Burn, Sven Botman, Fabian Schar and Kieran Trippier has become one of the league’s best. In midfield, the game will run through Bruno Guimaraes, with the Brazilian integral in distributing the ball and building attacks.
Alexander Isak is fit once again and could lead the line but it’s likely we see Callum Wilson continue to play in the middle of the front three, with his goals earning him a World Cup call-up and the faith of Eddie Howe.
To put it simply, Newcastle are the better team by some margin, as the Premier League table shows. This is a cup game, and ultimately Newcastle have far more at stake than Southampton, and their quality should tell and get them the win here.
Southampton vs Newcastle Over/Under analysis
The bookies are expecting the Under to land with Under 2.5 goals as short as -125. If you look at Premier League form then Southampton have Over 2.5 goals in 55% of games, but that drops to 50% when at St Mary’s Stadium, with both games in 2023 combining for just two goals.
Newcastle have Under 2.5 goals in 70% of their home games but when they’re on the road that rises to 50%. So both teams have 50% records in the league when the Saints are at home and Newcastle away.
In Newcastle’s three games in the Carabao Cup they’ve seen just three goals, with the games finishing 0-0, 1-0, and 2-0. Southampton only have one of their three games hitting the Over 2.5 mark, and that was against League One’s Lincoln City. Their results have been 1-1, 2-1, and 2-0.
Given form in this competition I’d lean towards backing Under 2.5 goals here, but it’s not a strong lean and it’s a wager I’m likely to avoid.
Southampton vs Newcastle game info
|Location:||St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, England|
|Date:||Tuesday, January 24, 2023|
3:00 p.m. ET
Southampton vs Newcastle key injuries
Southampton: Tino Livramento RB (Out), Armel Bella-Kotchap CB (Out), Juan Larios FB (Out), Theo Walcott FWR (Questionable), Alex McCarthy GK (Questionable).
Newcastle: Emil Krafth RB (Out), Matt Targett LB (Out).
Southampton vs Newcastle weather
Temperatures will be in the low-30s with a cold night expected on the South coast.