Matchweek 5 offers plenty of opportunities to look beyond the obvious favorites, with several teams entering the weekend dealing with injuries, short rest, or misleading Premier League form.
My Premier League moneyline predictions cover all 10 matches, including a couple of draws and underdogs that could provide value in the three-way market.
Here are my moneyline picks for every Premier League match this weekend.
Premier League moneyline picks for Matchweek 5
| Game | Pick |
|---|---|
 Brentfordvs  Chelsea |
41% |
 Tottenhamvs  Aston Villa |
27% |
 Brightonvs  Arsenal |
59% |
 Evertonvs  Ipswich |
55% |
 Newcastlevs  Hull |
Draw 22% |
 Nottingham Forestvs  Coventry |
61% |
 Bournemouthvs  Liverpool |
45% |
 Leedsvs  Crystal Palace |
56% |
 Manchester Cityvs  Sunderland |
77% |
 Fulhamvs  Manchester United |
Draw 26% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Premier League moneyline picks for Matchweek 5
Brentford vs Chelsea pick: Chelsea
Chelsea's defense makes them difficult to trust at a short price, but their attack gives them a significant advantage in this matchup. The Blues rank second in the Premier League with 10 goals through four matches and are averaging six shots on target per game.
Brentford have yet to lose in league play, but they have conceded in each of their last six matches across all competitions. I'm backing Chelsea's firepower to eventually separate them.
Tottenham vs Aston Villa pick: Aston Villa
Villa's Premier League numbers don't tell the whole story. After struggling to score domestically, Unai Emery's side has produced seven goals across its last three matches in all competitions, including three at Club Brugge and three at Coventry.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have scored just once across their last four matches and enter off a 3-1 EFL Cup loss to Liverpool. With Villa's attack showing signs of life, I'll take the visitors at what should be an attractive probability.
Brighton vs Arsenal pick: Arsenal
Brighton's underlying attacking numbers have been excellent, but their injury list makes this a difficult spot. Kaoru Mitoma, Yankuba Minteh, Evan Ferguson, Mats Wieffer, Jack Hinshelwood, Charalampos Kostoulas, and Yohanna are among those unavailable.
Arsenal also have the scheduling advantage after playing their midweek cup match one day earlier. Brighton can cause problems at full strength, but their depleted attack has to face one of England's best teams. Give me Arsenal.
Everton vs Ipswich pick: Everton
Everton haven't been spectacular, but they've become extremely difficult to beat. The Toffees enter unbeaten in six matches across all competitions, including three consecutive Premier League draws before their midweek cup victory. More importantly, they've conceded just three goals through four league matches.
Ipswich have already allowed 10, and that defensive gap should eventually show at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Ipswich have shown enough attacking ability to make this uncomfortable, but Everton are the more trustworthy side at home.
Newcastle vs Hull pick: Draw
Hull's results deserve more respect than their promoted status will get them. They've already beaten Manchester United, held Aston Villa scoreless, and earned a 2-2 draw at Chelsea.
Newcastle now return home after getting hammered 4-1 by Leeds, with Anthony Elanga, Nico Gonzalez, and Jacob Ramsey all picking up injury concerns. St James' Park keeps me away from Hull outright, but their recent performances suggest they're capable of frustrating another heavyweight.
Nottingham Forest vs Coventry pick: Nottingham Forest
Coventry's return to the Premier League has been brutal. They've lost all four league matches without scoring, and they've now dropped five of their last six across all competitions after Wednesday's 3-1 loss to Aston Villa.
Forest's defensive injuries are worth monitoring, but Coventry are hardly positioned to exploit them with Haji Wright injured and Taiwo Awoniyi suspended. Forest just won at Aston Villa and previously earned a point at Liverpool. This is a home favorite I'm comfortable backing.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool pick: Liverpool
Bournemouth's winless league record is slightly misleading, with the Cherries taking points from Newcastle and Brentford while remaining competitive throughout their opening four matches. That makes this more dangerous than it looks.
Liverpool, however, remain unbeaten and have followed a Champions League win over Atletico Madrid with a 3-1 cup victory over Tottenham. Injuries have reduced Liverpool's attacking depth, but Alexander Isak gives them the best finisher on the pitch. I'll trust the Reds in a tight one, especially with the Cherries playing their first-ever European game on Thursday.
Leeds vs Crystal Palace pick: Leeds
This might be my favorite non-Man City spot of the weekend. Leeds are unbeaten through four Premier League matches and enter after hammering Newcastle 4-1.
Palace have the opposite setup: a Thursday European match leaves them with a short turnaround before visiting Elland Road, while injuries have hit their attack hard. Jean-Philippe Mateta and Ismaila Sarr are out, with Eddie Nketiah also a doubt. Form, rest, venue, and availability all point toward Leeds.
Manchester City vs Sunderland pick: Manchester City
There's no reason to manufacture a contrarian angle here. Manchester City have won five straight matches across all competitions, scoring 10 goals while conceding only two. That run includes victories over Manchester United, Porto, Crystal Palace, and Bournemouth.
Sunderland have been competitive since promotion, but they were beaten 2-0 at home by Arsenal last weekend and now face an even tougher assignment at the Etihad. The probability may be enormous, but City are still the clear pick.
Fulham vs Manchester United pick: Draw
Manchester United's ceiling is higher, but trusting them away from home remains difficult. Fulham just went to Anfield and held Liverpool scoreless before scoring three times against West Ham in the EFL Cup.
United have flashed offensively, scoring five against Ipswich and four against Sabah, but they've also drawn Everton and lost to both Manchester City and Hull recently. Fulham have enough defensive structure to make this ugly, while United remain too inconsistent for me to back outright.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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