Southampton vs Leicester City Picks and Predictions: Saints' Survival Hopes Take Another Hit

Southampton's fortunes weren't improved by ditching Nathan Jones and they won't when Leicester City make the trip either — our EPL betting picks have more.

Last Updated: Mar 3, 2023 10:04 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
James Maddison Leicester City EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Saturday’s Premier League slate finishes with Southampton vs. Leicester City. It might not have the glamor of some other ties this weekend but it could have a huge impact on either team’s season.

Both teams have their Premier League status at risk and need every point they can get. Don’t miss our Southampton vs. Leicester City betting picks and predictions.

Southampton vs Leicester City best odds

Southampton vs Leicester City picks and predictions

Despite this being a terrible season for Leicester City, they’ve scored 36 goals in 24 games, 17 more than Southampton in the same timeframe. They’ve allowed one more goal than the Saints, with 42 (the second-worst record in the Premier League) but that shouldn’t matter here given that Southampton are so bad in front of goal.

Che Adams, their top-scoring striker, on a terrible four, is a doubt for this game. Paul Onuachu, who arrived from Genk in January having scored 16 goals in half a season, hasn’t found the net in four games for Southampton.

If there’s one team Leicester can get away with their defensive vulnerabilities against, it’s Southampton, who are incredibly blunt going forward. There’s no doubt Leicester will score in this one and even their poor backline should be able to keep a clean sheet.

In James Maddison, they have the best player in the bottom half of the Premier League, something shown by his nine goals and five assists this season. He missed their last game but should be able to play here, even if it’s from the bench and he could be decisive.

If Leicester can keep the goal-shy Southampton out then they’ll be able to win this game. They’ve won two of their past four in the league and look far more capable of escaping the threat of relegation than the Saints. 

At +170, this might be one of the best prices of the weekend’s Premier League action.

My best bet: Leicester City moneyline (+170 at DraftKings)

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Southampton vs Leicester City side analysis

Southampton have invested in a number of young players, who’ll be great in the future and potentially in the Championship, but aren’t ready to fight in a relegation battle. Romeo Lavia might be the pick of the bunch. The 19-year-old Belgian is clearly talented but he’s not experienced enough for this battle. There’s a large chunk of this starting 11, such as Stuart Armstrong and Romain Perraud, who probably aren’t good enough to be Premier League regulars.

Despite Leicester’s injury woes, they still have some big talented players to choose from. Harvey Barnes and Wilfred Ndidi are both players who could potentially play for bigger teams. Kelechi Iheanacho will start as the central striker, having largely been a sub this season. 

The central defensive duo of Wout Faes and Harry Souttar is only a new one, with Souttar signing for the club in January. Since the arrival of Souttar, they’ve only allowed seven goals in four games, but it’s worth noting that they’ve played Tottenham, Manchester United, and Arsenal in that spell. 

Southampton vs Leicester City Over/Under analysis

I’d lean towards backing Over 2.5 here. Neither team has been great defensively this season and although Southampton are terrible in front of goal, it’s easy to see three or more goals being scored, with Leicester likely to score the bulk of them.

There have been Over 2.5 goals in 54.5% of Southampton’s games at Saint Mary’s Stadium, with the Over also landing in 75% of Leicester’s games away from home. The trends point towards Over 2.5 goals and I’d be inclined to follow that, as nothing in recent weeks has given us reason not to.

Southampton vs Leicester City game info

Location: St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, England
Date: Saturday, March 4, 2023
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET

Southampton vs Leicester City key injuries

Southampton: Juan Larios FB (Out), Tino Livramento RB (Out), Che Adams (Questionable), Mohammed Salisu CB (Questionable).
Leicester City: James Justin LB (Out), Ryan Bertrand LB (Out), Jonny Evans CB (Out), Youri Tielemans CM (Out), James Maddison CAM (Questionable).

Southampton vs Leicester City recent form

Teams Last five matches
Southhampton Southampton L-W-L-L-L
Leicester City Leicester City L-L-W-W-D

Southampton vs Leicester City weather

A dry day with temperatures around 40 degrees at kickoff.

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