PSG vs Real Sociedad Predictions and Picks: Scoring Will Be Hard to Come By

PSG continue their pursuit of the elusive Champions League title against a Real Sociedad side that struggles to score and frustrates opposing offenses. In what could be a defense-first match, we find the best value on the betting board.

Feb 14, 2024 • 11:14 ET • 4 min read
Kylian Mbappe PSG Champions League Soccer
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Paris Saint-Germain begin their path towards securing the one prize that eludes them as they welcome Real Sociedad to Parc des Princes in today's Champions League Round of 16 action. Our Champions League odds have the French side heavily favored to secure victory.

PSG are cruising through Ligue 1, with an 11-point lead allowing Luis Enrique to rest key players in a 3-1 victory over Lille at the weekend. They’ve won eight of their last nine matches, and now turn their focus toward winning the one trophy their ownership group wants more than any.

For Real Sociedad, it’s been a rough stretch of results with injuries playing a key role. Imanol Alguacil could be without his captain and leading scorer Mikel Oyarzabal for the third match running, a huge concern for a side that hasn’t scored a single goal in their last four outings.

Our PSG vs Real Sociedad picks and predictions for Wednesday, February 14 help you find the best angle to bet on a first-leg match that looks to be quite one-sided. 

PSG vs Real Sociedad best odds

PSG vs Real Sociedad picks and predictions

It’s extremely hard to go four matches without scoring a goal, especially when three of the opponents faced have conceded well over a goal per match, but that’s exactly what Real Sociedad have managed to do. They lost 1-0 to an Osasuna side this weekend that is minus-9 in goal differential and had allowed 36 goals in the previous 23 fixtures. 

Ironically, that lone goal was the only goal of any kind scored over Sociedad’s last four outings. It ended a streak of 0-0 draws, including a Copa del Rey match against Mallorca — a side that sits 16th in La Liga’s table after the weekend. 

It doesn’t help that Mikel Oyarzabal has been out the past two matches, recovering from a knee injury that has him very doubtful for today's clash. He’ll be available off the bench, if at all, which takes away a 10-goal scorer across league and European play.

Oyarzabal will be one of a handful of players unavailable, joining Kieran Tierney, Carlos Fernandez, Alvaro Odriozola, Sheraldo Becker, and Aihein Munoz who are also out, leaving Imanol Alguacil with some real concerns.

While PSG aren’t the strongest defensive unit in Europe, their attack will force Real Sociedad to be hesitant to send numbers forward. There aren’t many more dangerous attacks in open space than what the Parisians will field, with Ousmane Dembele and Kylian Mbappe putting fear in the hearts of every defender stuck 1v1 with them.

Real Sociedad have put no more than three shots on target in their last three La Liga fixtures, while they’ve held their three opponents to a combined five, per StatHead. They’ll have to commit to defending to keep PSG at bay, and that’s going to limit the opportunities for the likes of Takefusa Kubo to cause problems at the other end. 

PSG will not only limit his opportunities but Real Sociedad’s ability to keep the ball for any length of time. “It’s very simple; we’ll need to rob them of the ball as soon as possible and then try not to lose it,” Enrique said at his press conference on Wednesday. 

He also pointed out that Sociedad featured one of the best defensive records of the competition thus far, which is worth noting. In their three group stage away fixtures, they came away with two wins and didn’t concede a single goal. They also went unbeaten while conceding just twice.

But they failed to score in their last two outings in the group stage, and their offensive struggles have continued to plague them. Combine that with their desire to try to go home for the second leg with something to play for, and I expect them to aim for another scoreless stalemate.

TonyBet is offering Real Sociedad at +120 to not score a goal, and I love those odds. Bank on the Spanish visitors to go home without a goal in what could be a low-scoring affair. 

My best bet: Real Sociedad team total Under 0.5 (+120 at TonyBet)

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PSG vs Real Sociedad same-game parlay

Real Sociedad TT Under 0.5 

Under 2.5

Kylian Mbappe to score or assist

I expect PSG to find a goal at some point, but I don’t think there will be more than two goals in this match. Even if they concede, Real Sociedad knows they need to keep PSG to a single goal if they want to have any hopes of getting through to the next round.

When the Parisian side does score, I fully anticipate Mbappe being involved. The awarding of assists is much more liberal with Champions League statistical keeping than it is in league play, which gives him more of an opportunity to get one. In addition, he’s also tallied 12 goals and assisted two more over his last nine matches, scoring in eight of them. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

PSG vs Real Sociedad side and Over/Under analysis

Not only are PSG favored, but you’ll need to lay serious juice to take them on the 3-way line. The best price on offer is -155, while the draw is giving up to +290 and a Real Sociedad upset pays +490. PSG’s price has stayed pretty consistent, but the price on the draw has come down in the past few days. 

The draw does offer up some value, but I’d probably bet the first half draw to limit the exposure. I do expect PSG to eventually break through, and if the match is scoreless at the break, you should be able to get them at a much better price. 

It’s nice to see a soccer total be evenly split at the 2.5 total. The Under has been favored most of the past week, but all books have both the Over and Under with negative odds.

As we gave out the Under in our same-game parlay, we’re obviously expecting that result here. Sociedad’s defense is outstanding, and their biggest losses are at the offensive end. PSG will have Marquinhos and Gigi Donnarumma back in their starting XI, and I see them coming away with a 1-0 or 2-0 victory. 

Not intended for use in MA.
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PSG vs Real Sociedad game info

Location: Parc des Princes, Paris, France
Date: Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS Sports Network, Paramount+, DAZN
Weather: 53F, 7-16 mph winds, 5% POP, 89% humidity

PSG vs Real Sociedad key injuries

PSG: Presnel Kimpembe D (Out), Milan Skriniar D (Out), Nuno Mendes D (Doubtful).
Real Sociedad: Mikel Oyarzabal M (Doubtful), Sheraldo Becker M (Out), Kieran Tierney D (Out).

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