Sunderland are looking to climb out of the bottom of the EPL table when they host Leeds United on Sunday.
My Sunderland vs Leeds predictions suggest a close encounter between two sides that will score but fail to secure victory.
Read on for my free picks for Oct. 25, with kickoff scheduled for 11.30 a.m. ET on NBC.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Top pick: Draw | 30% |
| Over/Under: Over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| Combo: Draw and both teams to score | 4.32x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Sunderland vs Leeds predictions
My Sunderland vs Leeds top pick: Draw (30% probability)
Sunderland’s poor start to the season has heaped pressure on their manager Regis Le Bris. After a single win from their opening seven EPL fixtures (-8 goal difference), the walls are closing in on the man in charge.
The Black Cats’ 1-1 draw against Lech Poznan in Poland in the Europa League on Thursday night showed the positives and negatives of their game. They started brightly, took an early lead, and controlled the game for a time, but their standards slipped, and the opposition equalized.
Leeds are 6pts higher than Sunderland in the table but are not a confident club to back. They are draw specialists: four of their seven EPL fixtures have ended in a tie, and they are instinctively conservative on the road.
As the outsider of three in the Match Outcome market, I'm backing the Draw.
Play this up to 35%.
My Sunderland vs Leeds Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (45% probability)
Only four of these teams’ 14 2026-27 EPL games have featured three or more goals. Dig a little deeper, however, and there are reasons to believe this will be a high-scoring game.
In Sunderland’s matches, xG (Expected Goals) figures have been higher than goals scored. Their games have featured 20 goals in total, but the xG numbers suggest they should have scored 25 if Sunderland hadn't consistently underachieved in front of goal.
Will the hosts start converting more of their chances? I think so: they have better attacking talent than their current ‘goals for’ column suggests. I expect greater contributions from recent signings such as winger Malick Fofana (0 goals in 116 EPL minutes) in the weeks ahead.
The Over is the dog and worth taking.
Play this up to 50%.
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Sunderland vs Leeds combo
Draw
Both teams to score
Although most of these teams' matches have featured fewer than three goals, their both-teams-to-score numbers tell a different story.
Both clubs have found the net in three of Sunderland’s seven matches and five of Leeds’ seven (57% of the total). Put BTTS Yes in a parlay with the Tie to have the 1-1, 2-2, and 3-3 scorelines on your side.
Sunderland vs Leeds odds
Sunderland
LeedsOdds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Sunderland vs Leeds
| Location | Stadium of Light, Sunderland, England |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026 |
| Time | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | USA Network |
| Weather | Clear |
Sunderland vs Leeds key injuries
Sunderland: Thomas Meunier RB (Out), Dan Ballard CB (Out), Kevin Danso CB (Suspended), Romaine Mundle LW (Out), Brian Brobbey ST (Questionable), Wilson Isidor ST (Out).
Leeds: Joe Rodon CB (Out), Anton Stach CM (Questionable), Noah Okafor LW (Questionable), Dominic Calvert-Lewin ST (Questionable), Mateo Joseph ST (Out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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