Premier League Matchweek 8 arrives with European football creating some interesting opportunities.
Manchester City put their perfect record on the line at Aston Villa, Chelsea host Tottenham in a London derby, and several clubs face quick turnarounds after playing abroad.
My Premier League moneyline predictions and free betting picks for October 23-25 cover all 10 matches, with particular attention to defensive weaknesses, recovery time, and where the market might be overlooking an underdog.
Premier League moneyline picks for Matchweek 8
| Match | Pick |
|---|---|
 Ipswich Town Nottingham Forest |
42% |
 Aston Villa Manchester City |
21% |
 Arsenal Everton |
69% |
 Coventry City Fulham |
41% |
 Chelsea Tottenham |
57% |
 Crystal Palace Newcastle United |
41% |
 Hull City Brentford |
57% |
 Liverpool Brighton |
47% |
 Manchester United Bournemouth |
53% |
 Sunderland Leeds United |
36% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Expert Premier League moneyline picks for Matchweek 8
Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest pick: Nottingham Forest
Ipswich gave Manchester City a scare in last week's 3-2 defeat, but their defensive problems aren't going away. They've conceded 19 goals in seven league matches, an average of nearly three per game. That's a welcome sight for a Nottingham Forest attack that has struggled to produce goals.
Forest haven't been particularly convincing either, but this is a considerably easier defensive matchup than Arsenal last weekend. Ipswich have shown they can compete with better teams, yet they keep giving opponents too many chances. I'll back Forest to take advantage at 42%.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City pick: Aston Villa
Manchester City are a perfect 7-0-0, but their defense hasn't looked unbeatable. They've conceded twice in each of their last two league matches, while Aston Villa have won consecutive Premier League games, including last weekend's victory at Newcastle.
City have an extra day of recovery after playing in Europe on Tuesday, and they're deserved favorites. But Villa have the attacking quality to punish a team that leaves space behind its defense. At just 21%, I'm willing to take a shot on the home underdog rather than chase City's perfect record.
Arsenal vs Everton pick: Arsenal
Arsenal have won six of their first seven league matches while conceding just six goals. They don't need to score three or four times to win, which makes them particularly difficult to oppose at home. Everton's unbeaten start ended with a 2-0 defeat to Chelsea last weekend.
The concern is Arsenal's Wednesday trip to Bayern Munich, which gives Everton a clear advantage in preparation time. But Arsenal's defensive consistency and ability to control matches should help them manage that turnaround. The 69% price isn't especially generous, but the Gunners remain my pick.
Coventry City vs Fulham pick: Fulham
Fulham finally earned their first Premier League victory last weekend, beating Hull 1-0. The result was overdue considering they'd scored just six goals from 9.71 expected goals through their first six matches. They were creating opportunities without getting the finishes to match.
Coventry have shown they can hurt opponents, particularly in their 4-1 win over Newcastle, but followed that with a 3-1 defeat at Tottenham. Neither side has a European commitment to worry about, so this comes down to the matchup. I trust Fulham's chance creation more and like the visitors at 41%.
Chelsea vs Tottenham pick: Chelsea
Chelsea have scored seven goals in their last two league matches, including a 2-0 victory that ended Everton's unbeaten start. Tottenham finally picked up their first win on Monday, but beating struggling Coventry doesn't suddenly erase six disappointing games.
Chelsea also have a meaningful scheduling advantage. They've had a full week to prepare, while Spurs played Monday and have a shorter turnaround for this London derby. With Chelsea finding goals and Tottenham still searching for consistency, the hosts are my preferred side at 57%.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United pick: Newcastle United
Crystal Palace have had a rough week. They were thrashed 5-0 by Brighton last Sunday, then traveled to Istanbul for Thursday's 2-2 draw with Besiktas. Several regulars featured in Europe, leaving little recovery time before Newcastle arrive at Selhurst Park.
Newcastle haven't been convincing themselves, but they've had a full week to prepare after losing narrowly to Aston Villa. Palace's defensive problems and demanding travel schedule give the visitors a chance to take control. At 41%, I'll back the fresher side to capitalize.
Hull City vs Brentford pick: Brentford
Brentford's first league defeat came under unusual circumstances. They were leading Liverpool 1-0 before Yehor Yarmoliuk was sent off, and eventually finished with nine men after Vitaly Janelt also received a red card. Their 2-1 loss is hardly a fair reflection of how they'd been playing.
Those dismissals do create a problem for Sunday's trip to Hull, with Brentford missing two midfielders through suspension. Still, Hull have struggled to turn possession into goals and are coming off a 1-0 defeat to Fulham. Brentford have been the more reliable side, and I'll stick with them at 57%, despite the personnel concerns.
Liverpool vs Brighton pick: Liverpool
Brighton have been outstanding in the Premier League, scoring freely and thrashing Crystal Palace 5-0 last weekend. But Thursday's scoreless draw at Jablonec means another European trip is behind them, followed by a quick turnaround for Sunday's visit to Anfield.
Liverpool played Tuesday, giving them two additional days to recover after their 4-3 Champions League victory over Villarreal. The Reds are still conceding too many chances, so Brighton are dangerous opponents. However, home advantage and the recovery gap make Liverpool my pick at 47%.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth pick: Manchester United
Bournemouth's 3-0 Europa League win over AC Milan looks impressive, but the Italians played with 10 men from the 27th minute. Bournemouth also started several key attackers on Thursday, leaving a short turnaround before Sunday's trip to Old Trafford.
Manchester United have problems of their own following Wednesday's 4-1 Champions League defeat at Como. Still, United have an extra recovery day, while Bournemouth must follow an emotional European victory with a difficult away assignment. At 53%, I'll back United to respond at home.
Sunderland vs Leeds United pick: Leeds
Sunderland remain bottom of the Premier League with just four points from seven matches. Their 1-1 Europa League draw at Lech Poznan on Thursday also means a trip to Poland and a short turnaround before facing a Leeds side that hasn't played since Sunday.
Leeds have lost just once in seven league games and held Manchester United to a draw last weekend. They're not an explosive attacking team, but Sunderland's poor form and limited recovery make this an appealing matchup. At 36%, I'll take the fresher visitors to claim three points.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
