Expect star power and plenty of emotion as the 265th edition of El Clásico kicks off Sunday afternoon at the Camp Nou in Barcelona.
My Barcelona vs. Real Madrid predictions call for goals at both ends, with defensive injuries leaving favored Barcelona (60%) vulnerable.
Read on for my free picks and La Liga predictions ahead of this titanic clash on Sunday, Oct. 25 at 4 p.m. ET on ABC.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid predictions
My Barcelona vs Real Madrid top pick: Real Madrid Over 1.5 Goals (53% probability)
Barcelona's depth is immense, but backline injuries left them exposed in the 4-2 defeat to PSG midweek. Those same injuries will be the catalyst for Real Madrid bagging multiple goals.
Vinicius Jr.'s suspension is offset by Yan Diomande's addition to the Real Madrid attack. He thrived in both of Real Madrid's outings this week, scoring a goal and providing an assist in each.
He, Jude Bellingham, and Kylian Mbappé will cause serious problems for a Barca defense missing Jules Koundé and Eric García.
Madrid have scored four goals in three straight fixtures and will find multiple goals against a Barcelona defense that allows the highest xG per shot (0.15) in La Liga this season.
I'm backing this to 56%.
My Barcelona vs Real Madrid Over/Under pick: Over 4.5 (47% probability)
Even before the injury issues, Barcelona's metrics hinted at some cracks being papered over. Their high line creates strong scoring chances for opponents, and their 14.75% conversion rate against is the third-highest in the league.
That's not to say that Barcelona won't bag goals of their own. In fact, I expect them to win, which makes the Over an easy play here.
Real Madrid rank mid-table in La Liga in shots and SOT conceded per match, and Marc Cucurella's tendency to venture forward can leave space for Lamine Yamal to operate.
Barcelona leads the league in xG per shot and SOT per 90, and their 20.42% conversion rate shows clinical finishing.
Play this to 51%.
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Barcelona vs Real Madrid combo
Barcelona to win
Over 4.5
Over 1.5 1H
I'm expecting early fireworks. In three of the last four meetings between these clubs, both have scored in the opening 45 minutes.
Barcelona have conceded in the first half in four of their last six matches in all competitions, and their defensive absences make it more likely we'll see that again.
On the flip side, Real Madrid haven't kept a clean sheet at halftime in any of their last six meetings with Barca.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid odds
Barcelona
Real MadridOdds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Barcelona vs Real Madrid
| Location | Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona, Spain |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026 |
| Time | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC, ESPN+ |
| Weather | Temps in low 60s with light winds and no chance of rain |
Barcelona vs Real Madrid key injuries
Barcelona: Jules Koundé (Out), Eric García (Out), Dani Olmo (Out).
Real Madrid: Vinícius Júnior (Out), Rodrygo (Out), Raul Asencio (Out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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