The Champions League returns with 18 league-phase matches on Tuesday, Oct. 20, and Wednesday, Oct. 21, and Matchday 3 brings some heavyweight clashes.
PSG and Barcelona headline Tuesday's action in Paris, while Bayern Munich welcomes Arsenal to the Allianz Arena on Wednesday. Throw in Liverpool vs. Villarreal and a tricky trip to Stuttgart for Atletico Madrid, and there's no shortage of intrigue.
My Champions League moneyline picks cover all 18 matches, with matchup analysis and sharp angles for each game.
Read on for my free betting picks for Matchday 3.
Champions League moneyline picks for Tuesday, Oct. 20
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Fenerbahce Slavia Prague |
Fenerbahce 58% |
| Sabah Baku Borussia Dortmund |
Borussia Dortmund 75% |
| AS Roma Slovan Bratislava |
Roma 84% |
| FC Porto PSV Eindhoven |
Porto 61% |
| Liverpool Villarreal |
Liverpool 65% |
| Manchester City AEK Athens |
Manchester City 89% |
| Napoli Bodo/Glimt |
Draw 21% |
| PSG Barcelona |
PSG 40% |
| Stuttgart Atletico Madrid |
Draw 25% |
Probabilities courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Fenerbahce vs Slavia Prague pick: Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce need a response after getting hammered 6-0 by Aston Villa, and this is a good spot to find one. Slavia haven't won a Champions League match in 21 tries, and they've had trouble creating chances against stronger teams.
Fenerbahce should see plenty of the ball and have enough attackers to keep Slavia pinned back. I'll take the home side to bounce back.
Sabah Baku vs Borussia Dortmund pick: Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund can't afford to take Sabah lightly. The German side just lost 1-0 at Bodo/Glimt, while Sabah beat Slavia 2-0. Dortmund also haven't travelled well in this competition lately. Still, I trust their attack to produce more clear chances.
If Dortmund move the ball quickly and get Guirassy involved near goal, they should have enough to win a tricky road game.
AS Roma vs Slovan Bratislava pick: Roma
Roma will be very disappointed to blow a 3-1 lead to Real Madrid, but scoring three against that kind of opposition is encouraging.
Slovan, meanwhile, were beaten 3-0 by Stuttgart and could spend much of this game defending deep.
Roma should be able to win the ball high up the pitch and keep creating chances, even if the visitors sit back. I don't see Slovan handling that pressure for 90 minutes.
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven pick: Porto
Porto gave up three goals against Betis last time out, so there are concerns at the back. But PSV have their own problems: they've allowed a goal in 18 straight Champions League matches. Porto should be able to attack down the wings and get plenty of balls into the box.
At home, I'll trust Porto to turn those chances into goals before PSV can make this uncomfortable.
Liverpool vs Villarreal pick: Liverpool
Liverpool scored six against LASK, but giving up three was another reminder that this defence can be caught out. Villarreal have enough quality to punish sloppy passes and break into the space Liverpool leave behind.
The difference is what happens when Liverpool get going at Anfield. Their forwards can create chances in bunches, and I expect that pressure to eventually wear Villarreal down.
Manchester City vs AEK Athens pick: Manchester City
Manchester City were caught out on the break in their 4-2 loss to PSG, but AEK aren't as well equipped to exploit those openings. Most of this match should be played in AEK's half, with City working the ball around a crowded penalty area.
The only real question is how long it takes to find a breakthrough. City have too much quality and should eventually pull away.
Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt pick: Draw
Napoli have lost both of their Champions League matches, and Bodo/Glimt just showed what they can do by beating Dortmund 1-0. Bodo won't need much of the ball to be dangerous. They'll sit tight, pick their moments, and look to hit Napoli on the break.
Napoli should have more possession, but that hasn't translated into results in Europe. I'm taking the draw.
PSG vs Barcelona pick: PSG
PSG just put four goals past Manchester City, and Barcelona's attacking style could leave them facing many of the same problems. Barcelona like to push up the field and commit players forward, which gives PSG space to run into when they win the ball.
This should be will be a thrilling, open game with chances at both ends. At home, I trust PSG to make better use of theirs.
Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid pick: Draw
Stuttgart have started well in Europe, but Atletico are a much tougher team to break down than Slovan Bratislava. Stuttgart should enjoy plenty of the ball at home, while Atletico will be happy to stay organized and wait for a mistake.
Neither side needs to take big risks early, and that could keep the chances down. I see a tight match where neither does quite enough to win.
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Champions League moneyline picks for Wednesday, Oct. 21
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
| Como Manchester United |
Como 42% |
| Lille Galatasaray |
Draw 26% |
| Aston Villa Viking |
Aston Villa 78% |
| Bayern Munich Arsenal |
Bayern Munich 47% |
| Real Betis Feyenoord |
Draw 20% |
| Club Brugge Lens |
Club Brugge 47% |
| Inter Shakhtar Donetsk |
Inter 82% |
| Real Madrid RB Leipzig |
Real Madrid 78% |
| Sporting CP LASK |
Sporting CP 80% |
Probabilities courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Como vs Manchester United pick: Como
Manchester United's 1-1 draw at Leeds did little to ease concerns about a team that has struggled to control matches. Como can take advantage if United leave gaps in midfield and give the hosts time to play through them.
United have more familiar names, but that hasn't made them reliable away from home. I like Como to be the sharper, more settled side and grab the win.
Lille vs Galatasaray pick: Draw
Lille and Galatasaray have both opened the Champions League with two defeats, and neither defence has offered much reassurance. Lille have gone ten Champions League games without a clean sheet, while Galatasaray have lost five straight away games in the competition.
The home side should get chances, but keeping Osimhen and company quiet is another matter. I see both teams having their moments without doing enough to win.
Aston Villa vs Viking pick: Aston Villa
Viking earned a 3-3 draw with Bayern, so Aston Villa can't simply turn up and expect three points. But Villa have won 11 straight European home games, and their 6-0 demolition of Fenerbahce showed how quickly they can punish mistakes.
Viking could have a few chances on the break, but they'll also have long spells without the ball. Villa's depth and home form make this a clear pick.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal pick: Bayern Munich
Bayern looked ruthless in their 6-1 win over Leipzig, and they'll need that same attacking edge against Arsenal. The visitors defend well and won't give Harry Kane much room around the box.
But Bayern can stretch teams with their wide players and force defenders into difficult decisions. They've gone 39 Champions League league-phase home games without a loss. I'm backing that home edge in a close one.
Real Betis vs Feyenoord pick: Draw
Betis have looked dangerous going forward, including in their 3-2 comeback against Porto, but they also leave themselves exposed when they send players upfield.
Feyenoord showed against Como that they can create chances even when a match gets messy.
Their European road record is poor, so I don't trust them to win outright. But I can see them scoring enough to hold Betis to a draw.
Club Brugge vs Lens pick: Club Brugge
Club Brugge's 4-3 win at Inter showed they can score against good opposition, even if they gave up plenty at the other end. Lens have also found it hard to keep teams out in Europe, conceding in 15 consecutive Champions League games.
This could turn into a back-and-forth contest, but Brugge should create more of the dangerous chances at home. I'll take the hosts.
Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk pick: Inter
Inter have lost four straight Champions League games, so an 82% price isn't one I'd call a bargain. But Shakhtar look like the right opponent for a reset.
They've scored just once in their last ten European meetings with Italian clubs, and Inter should be able to keep them defending for long stretches.
If Inter can get their wing-backs forward and supply the strikers, the home win should follow.
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig pick: Real Madrid
Real Madrid needed four goals to beat Roma, and Leipzig are another side capable of making things uncomfortable with quick attacks. The risk for Leipzig is how much space they leave when they press forward.
Kylian Mbappe thrives in those situations, and Madrid have scored in 44 straight Champions League home matches. I expect Leipzig to have their moments, but Madrid should create the better chances and win.
Sporting CP vs LASK pick: Sporting CP
Sporting have won five straight Champions League league-phase home matches, while LASK have lost nine consecutive European away games.
That's a tough combination to ignore. LASK conceded six against Liverpool, and Sporting have enough movement and passing quality to cause similar problems.
The hosts should control the ball, force LASK deeper and create a steady stream of chances. Sporting are the straightforward pick.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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