PSG vs Bayern Munich Picks and Predictions: Defensive Nightmare

Kylian Mbappe always presents an incredibly tough challenge, and that won't change when PSG clash with Bayern Munich. Our Champions League picks dive into why expecting a booking will make for a potentially juicy wager.

Last Updated: Feb 13, 2023 3:00 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Kylian Mbappe PSG champions league
Photo By - Associated Press

The Champions League is back this week with the Round of 16, and there's a huge game on Tuesday between two of Europe’s biggest squads, Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich. Both PSG and Bayern Munich sit atop their respective domestic leagues, but each club is hungry for Champions League glory.

PSG have yet to win their first Champions League trophy, while Bayern are chasing their seventh. Let's dive in with our free Champions League picks for PSG vs. Bayern Munich.

PSG vs Bayern Munich odds

PSG vs Bayern Munich picks and predictions

Both PSG and Bayern Munich are growing tired of domestic success and crave European glory. PSG has yet to lift a major European trophy, but they certainly boast the potential with their famous front three of Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, and Neymar. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich are familiar with great European success. But it’s been a couple of years for them, and they'll want to add an incredible seventh Champions League title.

Despite this being a game between two of the world’s most glamorous teams, the players who aren't available might define the matchup, with injury issues depleting both squads. The visitors are without Sadio Mane and Lucas Hernandez, as well as goalkeeper Manuel Neuer. Thomas Muller and Choupo-Moting are in doubt, though the former should play.

PSG is missing Renato Sanches and Nordi Mukiele, but the most important potential absentees are Messi and Mbappe. However, both Messi and Mbappe trained on Monday and have been named to the squad for the game. We can be confident they'll end up playing and likely start.

For our best bet, we’ll be looking at Mbappe’s matchup, which is likely to be against new signing Joao Cancelo, who arrived from Man City during the January transfer window. This is the Portuguese fullback's first appearance for Bayern in the Champions League, and Mbappe is a fearsome opponent.

We know Mbappe is a booking magnet, with defenders needing to make last-gasp attempts to tackle him and often fouling in the process. Secondly, there's Cancelo’s disciplinary record, as he received three bookings over six Champions League games before his move in January. He's also still new to this team and getting used to the tactics, and is more likely to miscommunicate with his teammates. That all makes this an appealing play at +300.

My best bet: Joao Cancelo to get booked (+300 at Unibet)

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PSG vs Bayern Munich side analysis

Lean toward backing the guests in a match that's tough to call. The home side will line up with a 4-3-3 featuring the dominant Messi, Neymar, and Mbappe trio, although it's uncertain just how fit they'll all be on Tuesday. Then Soler, Pereira, and Verratti should feature in the midfield, with the little Italian key to the game from PSG's perspective, as he’ll need help create for the front three. The backline of Ramos and Marquinhos hasn't been at its best this season, either individually or as a pair, and they’ll struggle.

Bayern’s 4-2-3-1 will likely feature Muller as the front man, with the brilliant trio of Leroy Sane, Serge Gnabry, and Jamal Musiala behind him. Musiala will be the main man for Bayern, and if he’s at his best they have a real chance.

Behind them it’ll be Leon Goretzka and Joshua Kimmich in the engine room, and they can get the best of a more lackluster PSG midfield. In addition to Cancelo making his Bayern Munich debut during the Champions League, we’ll also see new goalkeeper Yann Sommer doing the same.

PSG vs Bayern Munich Over/Under analysis

With Over 2.5 goals at -190, it’s clear the books are expecting PSG vs. Bayern Munich to be a high-scoring game.

PSG scored 16 while conceding seven during the group stages en route to finishing second in Group H, with Bayern scoring 18 and giving up just two in Group C.

There were over 2.5 goals in four of PSG’s six group matches, with the two games under the mark both 1-1 draws against Benfica. The Over has hit during only three of Bayern Munich's six games. However, the other three matches featured two goals each, so it’s always close.

Domestically, the Over on 2.5 goals has hit during 65.2% of PSG's games, with Bayern Munich at 55% in the Bundesliga.

PSG vs Bayern Munich game info

Location: Parc des Princes, Paris, France 
Date: Tuesday, February 14, 2023
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Paramount+

PSG vs Bayern Munich key injuries

PSG: Renato Sanches CM (Out), Nordi Mukiele RWB (Out), Kylian Mbappe FWR (Questionable), Lionel Messi FWR (Questionable)
Bayern Munich: Sadio Mane FWR (Out), Manuel Neuer GK (Out), Lucas Hernandez LB (Out), Noussair Mazraoui RB (Out), Ryan Gravenberch CM (Out), Thomas Muller FWR (Questionable), Eric Choupo-Moting STR (Questionable)

PSG vs Bayern Munich weather

There will be a lot of mist in Paris on Tuesday. That might linger until kickoff, when temperatures are expected to be in the low 40s.

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