Newport County vs Manchester United Predictions and Picks: Red Devils Roll at Rodney Parade

To say the Red Devils are favored would be the understatement of the year on Sunday, and Jason Ence expects Alejandro Garnacho & Co. to easily coast to victory on Sunday. Read more in our Newport County vs. Manchester United betting picks.

Jan 27, 2024 • 18:43 ET • 4 min read
Alejandro Garnacho Manchester United EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The possibility of FA Cup magic will be on offer Sunday when Newport County of League Two plays host to Premier League giants Manchester United. Our FA Cup soccer betting odds have the Red Devils favored at odds of more than -1100 to win in regulation.

Rodney Parade will have 10,000 seats added to its capacity for the match, with Newport County the second-lowest team remaining in the tournament from England’s soccer pyramid. They needed a replay to reach the fourth round, and now hope to advance further in just their ninth-ever journey to this point of the competition.

Manchester United have had two weeks off as part of the FA’s decision to split the last Premier League matchday to give players rest. It’s allowed Erik ten Hag the opportunity to name multiple players who have not featured in quite some time. With this being their last opportunity to win hardware, he’s expected to field a full-strength squad.

Read more in our Newport County vs Manchester United picks and predictions for Sunday, January 28.

Newport County vs Manchester United best odds

Newport County Manchester United Manchester United
+2,600 Moneyline -1,112
+1,100 Draw +1,100
Over 3.5 (-152) Total Under 3.5 (+129)

Odds courtesy of TonyBet on January 27, 2024.

Newport County vs Manchester United picks and predictions

Finding some value in this fixture isn’t easy, but Erik ten Hag’s hints at fielding a full-strength squad means we can back the Red Devils to win by three or more goals with a fair amount of confidence.

Let’s give some credit to Newport County. They’re unbeaten in their last seven, with three straight wins to their names. Unfortunately for the Welsh club, they took far too long to find this consistency, having taken just 37 points from their first 28 matches and holding a minus-5 goal differential in League Two play.

That has Newport County sitting 16th in the table, although they’re currently 16 points clear of the drop zone and look likely to secure their safety for this season. They also won’t play again until next Saturday, so they can go all-out in this fixture and try to slay the dragon.

And if this match had been played a month ago, I’d have given them a decent chance to do so. But while the Red Devils have won just twice in their last eight matches, they looked very strong in their third-round win at Wigan. In fact, they won 2-0 but had 4.03 expected goals as they outshot their opponents 33-9 on the day.

For the first time this season, ten Hag is going to be able to start an XI that is close to what he envisioned coming into the season. While he will be without goalkeeper Andre Onana and winger Marcus Rashford, there are some — myself included — who don’t necessarily see that as a bad thing.

Alejandro Garnacho has been terrific this season, and he should start on the left alongside Bruno Fernandes. Rasmus Hojlund will lead the attack, and those three should cause serious problems for a Newport County side that has conceded 45 goals in League Two through 28 matches.

Meanwhile, Newport County has kept just two clean sheets through their last 16 matches in all competitions, and have scored only eight goals over their last six fixtures. Four of those goals came against Eastleigh across two matches, after the National League side forced a replay in the third round.

That Eastleigh side has not won a match in their last seven. Just last weekend, they narrowly defeated Wrexham 1-0 at home despite the visitors being down a man after just 18 minutes.

Manchester United shouldn’t need to do anything more than they did against Wigan to stroll into the next round, and their performance last time out against Spurs gives many hope that the team might be figuring things out just a bit. Take the Red Devils to win with a handicap of -2.5, with TonyBet giving us odds of -129.

My best bet: Manchester United -2.5 (-129 at TonyBet)

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Newport County vs Manchester United same-game parlay

Manchester United -2.5

Alejandro Garnacho to score or assist

Rasmus Hojlund to score anytime

We’re going to keep things simple for our same-game parlay, given there’s not a lot we can combine for a huge payday. 

First, take Garnacho to either score or assist a goal. He’s been a real playmaker of late, with two goals and an assist in his last four. He had neither against Wigan, but that wasn’t his fault considering he boasted a 0.74 xA and created three scoring chances.

Look for Garnacho to create opportunities for Rasmus Hojlund, who we’re backing to score as well. He finished with a 1.05 xG against Wigan on four shots, but he followed that up by scoring inside three minutes against Tottenham and assisting on another goal.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Newport County vs Manchester United side and Over/Under analysis

The lowest price on the market for a Man United win is -1,100, so there’s no sense playing it. You can get as much as +1,100 for the draw, and DraftKings offers an outlier for Newport County to win at +3,500.

It would take an epic collapse for the Red Devils to fumble this one. They’ll be without a few starters, but the possible return of Luke Shaw and Harry Maguire are big boosts, and Lisandro Martinez made his long-awaited return against Tottenham and could start.

The total is juiced heavily up to the 3.5 line, with the Over costing you -150. You’ll need to go to Over 4.5 goals to get positive odds, with DraftKings having the best price at +155.

I’m staying away from the total here. When Premier League sides take on teams from lower divisions, you can often get a first half where the bigger team scores three or four goals, and then they take off key players after halftime.

I’d instead recommend looking for something live. If that happens, play the live Under or get the Over at a lower price if nobody scores inside the first 20 minutes or so. With Newport County setting up with five at the back in a 5-3-2 formation, it could take the Red Devils a while to break through.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Newport County vs Manchester United game info

Location: Rodney Parade, Newport, Wales
Date: Sunday, January 28, 2024
Time: 11:00 a.m. ET
Weather: 50F, 8-18 mph winds, 88% humidity, 0% POP

Newport County vs Manchester United key injuries

Newport County: Josh Seberry D (Out), Declan Drysdale D (Out), Kyle Jameson D (Questionable).
Manchester United: Andre Onana GK (Out), Marcus Rashford F (Doubtful), Sofyan Amrabat M (Out).

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