Man City vs Man United Picks and Predictions: Citizens Hunting for More Hardware in FA Cup Final

It will be another renewal of the Manchester Derby in the FA Cup Final this Saturday, with Premier League champs Man City holding as solid favorites. Our soccer betting picks believe there's value to be extracted from a Citizens side here.

Last Updated: Jun 3, 2023 8:23 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
John Stones Man City FA Cup Final
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

This Saturday sees the FA Cup Final, and with it being Manchester City vs Manchester United, it’s even more special than usual. The FA Cup is the most famous and celebrated domestic cup competition in the sport, and this Saturday it’s being fought for by two city rivals in the blue and red sides of Manchester.

Manchester United will be desperate to cap a great debut season for Erik ten Hag with another trophy, especially when it’ll stop Manchester City’s treble dreams. Don’t miss our Manchester City vs Manchester United picks and predictions to find out how to bet the FA Cup Final.

Man City vs Man United best odds

Brighton & Hove Albion Man City Manchester United Man United
-200 Moneyline +500
+350 Draw +350
Over 2.5 (-163) Total Under 2.5 (+130)

Odds courtesy of bet365 on June 2, 2023.

Man City vs Man United picks and predictions

Saturday sees a gigantic FA Cup Final clash between Manchester City and Manchester United. The world’s oldest soccer tournament turned 142 this year, and Saturday’s flagship game under the arch at Wembley Stadium might be amongst the most anticipated in a long time. 

That famous FA Cup trophy is just part of the intrigue on Saturday, in a game with narratives throughout. It’s always a big game when cross-city rivals meet, and the blue and red halves of Manchester will be eager for their teams to win. 

Man City are the best team on the planet right now, as they won the Premier League with ease in the end. One week after this FA Cup Final, they face Inter Milan in the Champions League Final, which brings us to the other major narrative weaving through this game. If Man City win the FA Cup and then win the UCL (and Champions League odds have them as heavy favorites), it means they’d match Manchester United’s greatest ever achievement — the famous treble of 1999 — something that no red could bear to see happen. Man United would also love to see new manager Erik ten Hag win his second piece of silverware in his debut season as manager.

Sadly for fans of the Red Devils, I think Man City will win this one, which brings me to my best bet. City are -200 to win on the moneyline, which offers no value at all, whereas -1 on the spread gives us a juicy +143. The soccer odds have varied views on the game, and one site has -1 as short as -140, which perhaps indicates that we’re getting a good price.

This Man City team have quality throughout, and crucially, they wrapped the Premier League up with three games to go. Some of their top players like Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne have been used sparingly, allowing them time to rest and recover. That’s very bad news for a Man United team who are missing Lisandro Martinez and Antony — who would surely be starting — as well as Anthony Martial, who could be dangerous in their attack.

Throughout the 38-game Premier League season, we saw Man City concede 10 less goals than their Manchester rivals, and score 36 more goals. That incredible firepower is one of the reasons that Man City will win this game comfortably. They have better attacking players, and they have the ability to control possession and pick off their rivals. 

Man City have won four of the last six meetings between the two clubs, and have scored 15 goals to United’s eight in those games. Interestingly, Man City have also won by at least two goals in every single one of those four wins. 

This is a team that knows how to win, and we’ve seen previously that when they get ahead of their rivals, they are able to put them to the sword and win comfortably, which is why we’ll be backing Man City -1 here.

My best bet: Man City -1 (+143 at BetRivers)

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Man City vs Man United side analysis

Both sides have faced some good teams on the way to this FA Cup Final. Man City played Chelsea then Arsenal in the third and fourth rounds before facing three Championship teams on the bounce. Man United played one Championship team in Reading but faced four EPL teams, including Brighton, whom they met in that penalty win in the semifinal.

As mentioned above, I see Man City winning this one easily, as their team is just too strong. I’m expecting to see their best XI play, which would see Nathan Ake, Ruben Dias, Manuel Akanji and John Stones in front of Ederson, with Rodri and the excellent Ilkay Gundogan in midfield, all providing the platform for Kevin De Bruyne, Jack Grealish and Bernardo Silva to create for Erling Haaland.

Manchester United should see Luke Shaw return at leftback, joining a defense including Victor Lindelof, Raphael Varane and Aaron Wan-Bissaka. Casemiro, their best player this season, will play alongside Christian Eriksen in midfield. 

An injury to Martial makes the forward line harder to predict. We’ll almost certainly see Bruno Fernandes and Jadon Sancho, but the big question is whether we’ll see Marcus Rashford up front with Alejandro Garnacho on the left, or see Rashford in that role with Wout Weghorst up top. I’d expect to see the Englishman up front and the youthful Garnacho to play on the left flank. Either way, it won’t impact the outcome, which should see Man City lifting the trophy.

Man City vs Man United Over/Under analysis

The total goals market isn’t one that I’ll personally be betting on for this game. Over 2.5 goals should land, but at -160, I think there’s better ways to play it being high scoring, notably Man City -1.

Man City and Man United both played five games each to reach this FA Cup Final, and both of those teams saw three or more goals in four of their five games, so the formbook points us towards this landing.

Domestically, we saw Man City games having Over 2.5 goals in 65.8% of their Premier League games with Man United at exactly 50% through their 38 league matches. At -160, it won’t be something I’ll be playing. I think it should be a game featuring three or more goals, but sometimes these FA Cup Finals can start slow and cagey. Although I can’t see Man City playing like that, it is a slim possibility, and at -160 it simply isn’t worth the gamble.

Man City vs Man United game info

Location: Wembley Stadium, Wembley, England
Date: Saturday, June 3, 2023
Time: 10:00 a.m. ET

Man City vs Man United key injuries

Man City: None.
Man United: Lisandro Martinez CB (Out), Donny van de Beek CM (Out), Marcel Sabitzer CM (Out), Antony RW (Out), Anthony Martial STR (Out).

Man City vs Man United weather

A beautiful London day will see beaming rays of sun, and temperatures just shy of 70 degrees.

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