Man City vs Leipzig Picks and Predictions: Haaland Keeps Torrid Scoring Pace Up

With Man City and Leipzig heading to Etihad tied 1-1, both team's stars will need to bring their A game if they want to advance. And as our Champions League picks highlight, we believe Man City's Haaland will be the star that shines brightest.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Mar 14, 2023 • 13:24 ET • 4 min read
Erling Haaland Manchester City Champions League
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Tuesday has the most interesting Champions League clash of the week as Manchester City host RB Leipzig. The first leg finished in a 1-1 draw, meaning that Tuesday’s game is a winner takes all situation, with the victor progressing to the quarterfinals.

Years of Man City investment has all had the ultimate game of lifting the Champions League trophy but Pep Guardiola’s men have so far failed to win the prize, could they get unstuck once again in Europe against an impressive RB Leipzig side? Don’t miss our Manchester City vs. RB Leipzig tips and prediction.

Man City vs Leipzig best odds

Man City vs Leipzig picks and predictions

The first leg finished level, but Man City had more shots, dominated possession, and forced Leipzig to commit more fouls. On another day it’s a game Man City would win and in front of their home crowd, I’m expecting them to.

That leads us to our best bet for this matchup, and with a Man City win at best odds of -250, we will instead focus on picking a goalscorer, with Erling Haaland available at -110 to score against the German side.

Haaland hasn’t been with Man City long, but it feels like we’ve already got used to his extraordinary goalscoring achievements and are almost taking it for granted. 

Haaland has scored 28 goals in 26 Premier League games so far this season, averaging more than a goal per game. He’s also scored five times in his five appearances in the Champions League.

Haaland has had an incredible goalscoring record in his professional career and has come across RB Leipzig many times before, having spent three years in Germany with Dortmund. Despite spending just three years in the Bundesliga, it’s worth noting that Haaland has six goals against Leipzig across all competitions.

A goal from Haaland isn’t a sure thing, but odds of -110 imply a 52.4% chance that he scores. Given his incredible goalscoring record — both domestically and in the Champions League — this feels wrong and that’s the reason we’ll be backing it. Other sportsbook have a Haaland goal at -200, an implied chance of 66.7%. That differential in odds really shows me just how much value this bet is making.

It might not be the most glamourous wager you’ll see this week, but backing a Haaland goal against Leipzig gives you a high value opportunity with one of the best goalscorers on the planet.

My best bet: Erling Haaland to score (-110 at Unibet)

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Man City vs Leipzig side analysis

You’re not getting big odds on Man City winning, but on paper they really should. These teams have met three times before, with each side having a victory back in the group stages in 2021 and then the last game obviously finishing as a draw.

As mentioned, City have no injuries in the squad meaning that Pep Guardiola can pick from a full squad of players. That’s important because it means that not only will the starting lineup be full of talent, but so will the bench, meaning that Man City will have options if they need to make changes.

Haaland will likely be flanked by Grealish and Mahrez. De Bruyne will be tasked with creating for the front three, with Rodri and Gundogan keeping the defense shielded. It’s not clear who will be at the back for Man City, but we’ll surely see Ruben Dias who has been magnificent recently.

RB Leipzig are missing Xaver Schlager from the midfield, with Amadou Haidara likely to come in for him. Dani Olmo will be missing and it could well be that Christopher Nkunku is forced to start on the bench.

There’s a lot of attacking talent on display with Dominik Szoboszlai a fantastic player, who should be able to help present chances for the likes of Andre Silva.

Man City vs Leipzig Over/Under analysis

Over 2.5 goals is at -163 and although I have no strong lean, I’d probably side on this hitting the Under if I were forced to pick a side.

We all know about Man City’s record at the Etihad in the Premier League in which 84.6% of games have hit Over 2.5 goals, but there last two Premier League games — both home and away — have seen a total of three goals and they do feel like they’re struggling to blow teams away right now.

RB Leipzig’s league record on the road sit at 75% hitting the Over. Despite the trends pointing us towards the Over, I can’t help but feel that this game could be tighter and more cagey than many expect.

Man City vs Leipzig game info

Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
Date: Tuesday, March 14, 2023
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
TV: Paramount+

Man City vs Leipzig key injuries

Man City: No injuries to report.
Leipzig: Xaver Schlager CM (Out), Peter Gulacsi GK (Out), Abdou Diallo CB (Out), Dani Olmo FWR (Out), Christopher Nkunku ST (Questionable).

Man City vs Leipzig weather

Temperatures will be in the mid 30s for this one and there’s a chance we could see rain or even sleet.

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