Chelsea vs Liverpool Carabao Cup Predictions and Picks: Mo Leaves Foes Feeling Blue

In what will be a defining match for both sides, our soccer betting picks for the Carabao Cup final think that Liverpool's going to be a tough obstacle for Chelsea to overcome.

Feb 23, 2024 • 10:16 ET • 4 min read
Mohamed Salah EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Chelsea vs Liverpool Carabao Cup Final Tips and Predictions: Klopp era to end in triumph
It’s finally here, the first final of the domestic season, the Carabao Cup Final, Chelsea vs. Liverpool at the world-famous Wembley Stadium, this Sunday, February 23rd. These two teams met as recently as this month and have a long history of big games against one another, but who will come out on top of the soccer odds in this massive game? You can find out with our Carabao Cup Final picks.

Will Liverpool win another trophy in Jurgen Klopp’s final season, or will Mauricio Pochettino pick up his first silverware with the club? Don’t miss our Chelsea vs Liverpool betting picks and predictions to find out.

Chelsea vs Liverpool best odds

Brighton & Hove Albion Chelsea Manchester United Liverpool
+220 Moneyline +112
+265 Draw +265
Over 3 (+104) Total Under 3 (-132)

Odds courtesy of TonyBet on February 23, 2024.

Chelsea vs Liverpool picks and predictions

On Sunday, we have the first domestic final of the English soccer season, and one which could define how both managers view the first and last seasons with their respective clubs. Chelsea and Liverpool meet under the famous Wembley arch with a chance to win the Carabao Cup. With these two clubs being amongst the most successful of the last decade it’s no surprise that they know each other well and even met in this final two years ago, a game which Liverpool won on penalties after a 0-0 draw.

The teams look very different from two years ago. Since that game, we’ve seen Chelsea go past the Roman Abramovich era, and they now look vastly different, from the manager to the bulk of the players, with a huge turnover in the playing staff since that game. Liverpool, meanwhile, might still have Jurgen Klopp in the dugout, until the end of the season anyway, as well as the talismanic Mohamed Salah, but they’re a very different team now, too, with Klopp having spent the two years since their Carabao Cup meeting rebuilding the side.

So that brings us to the best bet for the game and despite Liverpool having some important players missing, such as Diogo Jota, Alisson Becker and Trent Alexander-Arnold, I still think that they’re too good, both in terms of playing talent and most importantly experience, something that will give them the tools that they need to win this, with odds of +112 that Liverpool win within regulation.

You can get -167 on Liverpool lifting the cup, which would cover you if it went to penalties, as it did in both the Carabao Cup and FA Cup final meetings between these two in 2022, both Liverpool wins, but it’s unlikely to go that far with Liverpool by far the superior team right now.

Liverpool top the Premier League and look locked into a battle with Man City and Arsenal to lift the trophy. Klopp’s team are playing well and have not only scored more goals than anybody else, but they also have conceded the second-fewest, an impressive return given the injuries that they’ve had, as well as Salah departing to the Ivory Coast for AFCON. Meanwhile Chelsea came into the weekend 10th in the Premier League table, having let in more goals than 17th-placed Everton. The inability of Chelsea to keep clean sheets, in part down to tactics and in part down to constant injuries is one of the reasons that they won’t overcome Liverpool on Sunday.

Chelsea’s past four games sum up their season in many ways, they most recently had an impressive 1-1 draw away at the current champions, Man City and a strong win over Crystal Palace but also got thumped 4-2 at home by Wolves who sit one spot lower than them in the Premier League, as well as losing to Sunday’s opposition Liverpool 4-1 earlier in the month.

We’re likely to see the likes of Darwin Nunez and Salah make the lineup on Sunday and even the loss of Trent Alexander-Arnold isn’t quite as damaging as it could have been with the young Conor Bradley doing an incredible job since coming into the team.

With Liverpool having the bulk of their star players fit and having extensive experience of winning finals, you’re getting great value on them winning this at odds of +112.

My best bet: Liverpool to win (+112 at TonyBet)

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Chelsea vs Liverpool same-game parlay

Liverpool to win

Mohamed Salah to score anytime

Under 3 goals

In addition to our best bet of Liverpool to win the game, we’re also going to add Salah to score. The Egyptian has perhaps become underrated now that we’re so used to seeing his brilliance but this season, despite being 31-years old, he’s been a monster. He’s scored 15 goals and assisted nine more in 21 Premier League games and is a constant menace from the right flank and area that will put him up against Ben Chilwell and the left sided CB Levi Colwill. Salah often turns up for the biggest games and should again here.

The final leg of our SGP is for Under three goals. We’ve seen Over 2.5 goals land just once in the last six meetings between the teams, which was the game earlier in February. The five before that had all finished Under 2.5 goals with four 0-0 draws, including the 2022 Carabao Cup final and one 1-1 tie too. With this being a final I’m expecting it to be cagier than you might expect with these teams, something that should take us to the Under.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Chelsea vs Liverpool side and Over/Under analysis

My best bet for the game is to back Liverpool on the moneyline at +112, which offers real value given how good this team have been all season, as well as how inconsistent we’ve seen Chelsea be. If you want to back Chelsea to win you can get +220 on them winning inside 90 minutes with the draw at +265 an intriguing option given that we’ve seen five of the last six meetings finish level.

If you want to include extra time and penalties in your betting you can back Chelsea to lift the trophy at +124 or Liverpool at -167. The total goals market seems poorly priced to me. Over 2.5 goals comes in at -157 with Under 2.5 goals at +121. We’ve seen the majority of both Chelsea and Liverpool games this season hit the Over 2.5 goals threshold, but you have to consider that this is a final, which we so often being more cautious, just as the two final meetings between these clubs were in 2022, which both finished 0-0 after 90 minutes. 

In fact, of the last five Carabao Cup finals it was only 2020’s 2-1 win for Man City over Aston Villa that hit the Over. This should be low-scoring and getting +121 on the Under feels like value, even if Liverpool should have the ability to get the win.

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Chelsea vs Liverpool game info

Location: Wembley Stadium, London, England
Date: Sunday, February 25, 2024
Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
TV: Network
Weather: 46F, 35% POP, 13mph winds

Chelsea vs Liverpool key injuries

Chelsea: Marc Cucurella LB (Out), Welsey Fofana CB (Out), Reece James RB (Out), Romeo Lavia CM (Out), Benoit Basiashile CB (Out).
Liverpool: Joel Matip CB (Out), Stefan Bajectic CM (Out), Thiago CM (Out), Diogo Jota FWR (Out), Alisson Becker GK (Out), Trent Alexander-Arnold RB (Out), Curtis Jones CM (Out), Darwin Nunez STR (Questionable), Mohamed Salah FWR (Questionable), Dominik Szoboszlai CM (Questionable).

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