Bayern Munich vs PSG Picks and Predictions: Kicking and Screaming

PSG dropped the first leg of their Champions League clash with Bayern Munich. But now Kylian Mbappe is fully healthy and ready to make a significant difference. Find out why betting on him to score is a smart play in our Champions League picks.

Last Updated: Mar 8, 2023 12:05 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Kylian Mbappe Paris St. Germain Champions League
Photo By - Associated Press

Bayern Munich square off against PSG on Wednesday during the second leg of the most glamourous Champions League tie in the Round of 16. The Germans won a great one-goal first leg, but now they face a full 90 minutes against Kylian Mbappe.

Can Bayern keep slow PSG's attack of Lionel Messi and Mbappe? Read on for our Bayern Munich vs. PSG Champions League picks and predictions.

Bayern Munich vs PSG best odds

Bayern Munich vs PSG picks and predictions

Both teams come into Wednesday atop their respective domestic leagues. The home side, Bayern Munich, lead the Bundesliga on goal difference, with Dortmund waiting in the wings. PSG are eight points clear of Marseille in Ligue 1 and look set to win yet another league title.

The first leg finished 1-0 with Bayern winning, but it was a closely fought victory. Bayern Munich dominated the game for the most part, with Neymar and Messi unable to impact play.

That was until the 57th minute when Mbappe replaced Carlos Soler and the game changed in an instant. Mbappe came into the contest lacking match fitness following an injury, but any question marks over his health were instantly destroyed when he attacked the Bayern defense. His speed and guile caused them all sorts of problems, despite only being on the field for just over half an hour. He would have scored the equalizer if not for an offside, with VAR ruling off his effort.

Given the incredible impact Mbappe had on that first leg and the clear fear he put into the Bayern defense, my best bet for this game is on the Frenchman scoring at any time. It's available at a very appealing +162.

It might be his clubmate Messi who won the World Cup and the Golden Ball. But make no mistake, Mbappe is the best player on the planet. His physical tools are there for all to see, that electric pace and blink-and-you-miss-it change of direction. But he's far more than just an athlete. Mbappe’s understanding of space and how to move into and between areas are what makes him so dangerous.

He's been incredible in a PSG shirt this season, scoring 30 goals across 30 games in Ligue 1, Coupe de France, and the Champions League. Overall he’s averaging an astounding four shots per game.

When Mbappe returned during that last match against Bayern Munich he had been out for two weeks, but the megastar instantly looked like himself. He’s scored five goals over three games since then while assisting on another, pushing his team to a winning streak.

Th 24-year old is at the peak of his powers. Joao Cancelo will be tasked with defending him after Benjamin Pavard was suspended. The Portuguese standout is an incredible player, but his strengths lie on the offensive side of the ball. He’ll need to curb his natural instincts if Cancelo wants to keep Mbappe under control.

Odds of +162 imply a 38.2% chance Mbappe scores. But given his performance in the first leg, and seven goals over seven Champions League contests in 2022-23, that feels like a price to take advantage of immediately. Back Mbappe to get on the scoresheet here.

My best bet: Kylian Mbappe to score (+162 at bet365)

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Bayern Munich vs PSG side analysis

Bayern Munich hold a one-goal lead heading into this one. Oddsmakers seem confident the Germans will win and secure a spot in the Champions League quarterfinals. I’m not so sure and certainly think the -115 odds on Bayern aren’t worth backing. I’m not that bullish on PSG, but odds of +290 are far more attractive, especially when certain elements of team selections are in their favor.

There are a few significant names missing beyond Pavard for Bayern, so let’s start with the home side. The team will miss his defensive ability, especially if Cancelo and Alphonso Davies are at fullback since they’re both very attack-minded. Long-term absentees Lucas Hernandez and Manauel Neuer will also be sorely missed, too.

PSG are also missing some key names. Defenders Achraf Hakimi and Presnel Kimpembe are both absent. Hakimi not being present is far more of an issue given his brilliance on both sides of the ball. Kimpembe has logged plenty of experience, but he's often flustered and poor during these big Champions League games.

Then there’s Neymar. He's undoubtedly brilliant on his day, and one of those players who makes you realize why you're in love with the game. However, Neymar being out might actually benefit PSG.

When PSG play with Messi, Mbappe, and Neymar all in the attack, there are a lot of instances when no one in that trio tracks back to defend, putting incredible pressure on the rest of the team. PSG won't need to deal with that on Wednesday, which should help them.

It’s going to be a fun game. But I’d rather wager on Mbappe to score, or get involved with other prop markets, such as bookings or player fouls.

Bayern Munich vs PSG Over/Under analysis

Sportsbooks are very confident we’ll see plenty of goals on Wednesday, with Over 2.5 at -225. The Over will likely hit, but the odds aren't appealing, so avoid this market.

If you're going to bet on the total, keep in mind that before last week’s 1-0 outcome the two sides had produced high-scoring group-stage games. There were 20 goals during Bayern Munich's matches in Group C, and they tallied 18, all against some tough opponents. That included Inter, Barcelona, and Viktoria Plzen.

PSG finished second on head-to-head record to Benfica in Group H. In total, 23 goals were scored during their games, with PSG notching 16 and conceding seven. The Over has hit during 76.9% of PSG's road games during domestic competition.

Bayern Munich vs PSG game info

Location: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany
Date: Wednesday, March 8, 2023
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Paramount+

Bayern Munich vs PSG key injuries

Bayern Munich: Lucas Hernandez LB (Out), Manuel Neuer GK (Out), Noussair Mazraoui FB (Out), Benjamin Pavard RB (Out)
PSG: Neymar FWR (Out), Presnel Kimpembe CB (Out), Achraf Hakimi RB (Out), Renato Sanches CM (Out)

Bayern Munich vs PSG weather

Expect temperatures in the low 40s with a strong possibility of rain.

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