The defending champions are setting the pace in the 2027 Women's World Cup odds, but the path to another title is about to get a lot clearer.
Spain leads Kalshi's championship market at 28.9%, ahead of the USA (17%) and tournament host Brazil (9%). FIFA has also confirmed new draw protections for its highest-ranked teams, adding another wrinkle ahead of the December 11 draw in Rio de Janeiro.
Here are the latest Women's World Cup win probabilities, the leading contenders, and the key dates to know before the tournament kicks off in Brazil on June 24, 2027.
2027 Women's World Cup odds and win probabilities
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Spain
USA
Brazil
Japan
England
Germany
France
CanadaLast updated Nov. 11. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Favorites to win the 2027 Women's World Cup
Spain (28.9%)
Spain has earned its place at the top. The defending champions have already qualified for Brazil and remain the team every contender is measuring itself against. The combination of Alexia Putellas, Aitana Bonmati, and Patri Guijarro gives La Roja an outstanding midfield foundation, while Claudia Pina and Salma Paralluelo provide the attacking quality to punish teams that spend too much time defending.
Young Barcelona star Vicky Lopez is another name to watch, giving Spain an exciting blend of established winners and emerging talent. If La Roja retains FIFA's No. 1 ranking on December 7, it will also receive valuable knockout-path protection. Spain has the personnel to become just the third nation to win consecutive Women's World Cups.
USA (17%)
The four-time champions remain Spain's biggest threat in Kalshi's market, although the Americans still need to qualify for Brazil. Emma Hayes has plenty of attacking options, with Trinity Rodman, Sophia Wilson, and Mallory Swanson capable of overwhelming opponents with their pace and movement. Rose Lavelle provides creativity in midfield, while veteran Lindsey Heaps brings leadership and experience.
The younger generation could be equally important. Lily Yohannes offers a different dimension in midfield, and Alyssa Thompson continues to develop into a dangerous attacking option. The USA faces El Salvador in its November 27 Concacaf W Championship quarterfinal, with a World Cup berth on the line. A victory would allow Hayes to turn her attention toward winning a record fifth title.
Brazil (9%)
Brazil has one major advantage over its rivals: home field. Arthur Elias' squad will open the tournament at the Maracana on June 24, hoping to deliver the country's first Women's World Cup championship. Kerolin brings pace and attacking creativity, while Amanda Gutierres, Bia Zaneratto, and Adriana provide additional scoring options. Angelina and Duda Sampaio are important midfield pieces, with Lorena offering experience in goal.
There's also an exciting generation pushing for opportunities, although Dudinha's recovery from a serious knee injury is worth monitoring. Brazil reached the 2024 Olympic final and won the 2025 Copa America Femenina, providing evidence that this group can compete against elite opposition. The home crowd should be a major factor, but the draw will help determine whether Brazil can turn that advantage into a deep run.
Japan (7.7%)
Japan is an intriguing contender at 7.7%, with a squad capable of troubling any opponent through its movement, technical ability, and midfield control. Manchester City's Yui Hasegawa remains a key figure, while Hinata Miyazawa, the leading scorer at the 2023 Women's World Cup, provides another attacking threat. Aoba Fujino and Maika Hamano offer creativity, with Bayern Munich's Momoko Tanikawa among the most exciting young players in the program.
The 2011 champions have already qualified and possess the technical quality to challenge Europe's leading nations. Japan also reached the final in 2015, giving the program a history of success on this stage. A favorable December draw would help, but its midfield talent makes Japan dangerous regardless of the opposition.
England (7.6%)
England came within one victory of its first Women's World Cup title in 2023, and much of the talent responsible for that run remains available to Sarina Wiegman. Arsenal striker Alessia Russo leads a dangerous group of attackers that includes Lauren James, Lauren Hemp, and Beth Mead. Georgia Stanway and Keira Walsh provide experience in midfield, while Leah Williamson anchors a defense with plenty of international pedigree.
The Lionesses still need to complete European qualifying, but there's little question about the quality of their potential World Cup squad. James offers the kind of individual brilliance that can decide a knockout match, while Russo gives England a reliable presence up front. If England qualifies and maintains a top-four FIFA ranking, December's draw could provide additional protection against another leading contender.
Germany (7.1%)
Germany has already secured its World Cup place and will be chasing its first championship since 2007. Klara Buhl is one of the team's most dangerous attacking players, capable of creating chances from wide positions, while Jule Brand adds speed and versatility. Captain Giulia Gwinn offers quality and leadership, with Sjoeke Nusken providing an important presence in midfield.
Christian Wuck also has emerging options such as Cora Zicai and Carlotta Wamser, giving Germany a promising mix of experience and youth. The two-time champions suffered a disappointing group-stage elimination in 2023, so there's unfinished business heading into Brazil. Germany has the talent to challenge the favorites, but greater consistency against elite opposition will be essential if it hopes to win a third title.
France (6.8%)
France has enough attacking talent to make its 6.8% championship probability worth monitoring. Marie-Antoinette Katoto remains a dangerous presence in front of goal, while Kadidiatou Diani, Sandy Baltimore, and Melvine Malard offer different ways to break down defenses. Grace Geyoro provides experience in midfield, with Sakina Karchaoui and Selma Bacha capable of contributing from deeper positions.
Laurent Bonadei's side has already qualified for Brazil, but injuries to players such as Bacha and Delphine Cascarino have complicated preparations. Their fitness will be important as the tournament approaches. France has reached the Women's World Cup semifinals only once, in 2011, despite regularly entering major competitions with considerable talent. The challenge is turning that quality into a sustained knockout run.
Canada (4.5%)
Canada rounds out the eight-team shortlist at 4.5%, with Casey Stoney overseeing a group determined to rebound from its disappointing 2023 World Cup. Captain Jessie Fleming remains central to the midfield, while Arsenal's Olivia Smith provides an exciting attacking option. Defenders Vanessa Gilles, Kadeisha Buchanan, and Ashley Lawrence give Canada an experienced foundation, with Simi Awujo representing another important piece of the next generation.
The Canadians captured Olympic gold in 2021, but have never reached a Women's World Cup final. That contrast highlights the challenge facing this squad. Canada must first secure qualification against Panama on November 28 before turning its attention toward a possible title run. If Stoney can get more consistent attacking production around Smith, Canada could become an interesting outsider in Brazil.
When is the 2027 Women's World Cup draw?
The 2027 Women's World Cup draw takes place Friday, December 11, 2026, at 11:30 a.m. ET at the Museum of Modern Art in Rio de Janeiro. FIFA will divide the 32-team field into eight groups of four, with seeding determined by its December 7 women's world rankings.
Brazil is automatically in Pot 1 and locked into Group A. The other seven top seeds will be selected using the rankings, while the draw will also include three placeholders for teams that won't qualify until March 2027.
The biggest change for the championship market is how FIFA plans to protect the highest-ranked contenders. The top two teams will be drawn onto opposite knockout pathways, meaning they cannot meet before the final if both win their groups. The third- and fourth-ranked teams will also be placed on opposite pathways. Spain and the USA currently occupy the first two ranking spots, but those positions won't be finalized until December 7.
That makes the draw more than a formality for anyone following Women's World Cup win probabilities. Some title contenders could get a clearer road through the knockout stage, while others may face a tougher assignment.
When is the 2027 Women's World Cup?
The tournament runs from June 24 to July 25, 2027, with 32 teams competing across eight Brazilian host cities. Brazil will play the opening match at the Maracana in Rio de Janeiro, which will also stage the final.
Past FIFA Women's World Cup winners
Five nations have won the Women's World Cup since the inaugural tournament in 1991. The USA leads the way with four titles, Germany has two, and Norway, Japan, and Spain have one each. Spain is the reigning champion after beating England in the 2023 final.
| Year | Winner | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Spain | England |
| 2019 | USA | Netherlands |
| 2015 | USA | Japan |
| 2011 | Japan | USA |
| 2007 | Germany | Brazil |
| 2003 | Germany | Sweden |
| 1999 | USA | China |
| 1995 | Norway | Germany |
| 1991 | USA | Norway |
FIFA Women's World Cup trends
- Home advantage hasn't guaranteed a title: The USA in 1999 is the only host to win the Women's World Cup in nine editions.
- Back-to-back champions are rare: Germany (2003 and 2007) and the USA (2015 and 2019) are the only nations to successfully defend the title.
- The USA's streak ended in 2023: The Americans reached at least the semifinals in the first eight editions, but were eliminated by Sweden in the Round of 16 in 2023.
- Brazil still seeks its first crown: The 2007 runner-up has never won the Women's World Cup and will try to change that on home soil in 2027.
2027 Women's World Cup odds FAQ
Who is favored to win the 2027 Women's World Cup?
Spain leads Kalshi's championship market at 28.9%, followed by the USA at 17% and Brazil at 9%.
Has the USA qualified for the 2027 Women's World Cup?
Not yet. As of November 11, 2026, the USA is preparing for its November 27 Concacaf W Championship quarterfinal against El Salvador. A win would secure qualification.
When is the 2027 Women's World Cup draw?
The final draw is on Friday, December 11, 2026, at 11:30 a.m. ET in Rio de Janeiro.
Where is the 2027 Women's World Cup being played?
Brazil will host the tournament from June 24 through July 25, 2027, across eight cities. It is the first Women's World Cup staged in South America.
How do Kalshi Women's World Cup probabilities work?
Kalshi shows a market-based estimated chance for each possible champion. For example, a displayed 28.9% chance for Spain reflects the market's estimate at that moment, not a guaranteed result. The displayed chance may differ from the actual price available when buying a Yes contract.
FIFA Women's World Cup Odds FAQs
England (+170) is the current betting favorite to win the Women's World Cup.
Team USA has won the Women's World Cup four times and has never finished outside of the Top 3 in eight tries. Germany has won the prestigious tournament twice.
No, no country (men or women) has won the World Cup three times in a row. The USWNT can be the first in 2023.
