France are looking to extend the excellent start under new manager Zinedine Zidane when they take on Italy.
My Italy vs. France predictions point toward a fourth win in five games for les Bleus, with a high-scoring encounter expected.
Here's my analysis and free picks for the showdown at the San Siro in Milan, which kicks off on Nov. 12 at 2:45 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Italy vs France predictions
My Italy vs France top pick: France to win (58% probability)
France tied (1-1) when these sides met in Saint-Denis last month. I expect better from them here, as they're the stronger of the two teams by some distance, and France should win.
Their dropped points against Italy were France’s only misstep during the September and October international breaks. They secured wins from their other three games (against Belgium twice, and Turkey), a record that puts them on top of UEFA Nations League Group A with 10 points from four matches. Italy is second, with seven points from four games.
Play the visitors up to 63%.
My Italy vs France Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 goals (60% probability)
Italy’s performances in the Nations League last month are the main reason to believe this game will feature three-plus goals.
The average goals-per-game count across the Azzurri’s four September and October fixtures was 3.25. Their xG (expected goals) figures paint an even more emphatic picture.
The average xG of their four matches was 3.38. In all four matches, the xG was over 2.50. In two of their four matches, it was over 3.50.
For those seeking sizable returns, Over 3.5 on this game comes with a 38% probability. I prefer the more conservative Over 2.5 selection, and would play it up to 65%.
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Italy vs France combo
France to win
Both teams to score
Both teams have scored in 10 of France’s 18 fixtures in the past 12 months, and in five of Italy’s nine during the same period.
Those stats, plus the meeting between the teams ending in a 1-1 tie last month, make BTTS Yes our combo selection alongside a France win.
Italy vs France odds
Italy
FranceOdds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Italy vs France
| Location | San Siro, Milan, Italy |
| Date | Thursday, Nov. 12, 2026 |
| Time | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | Fox Sports 1 |
| Weather | 75% chance of rain, 52 degrees |
Italy vs France key injuries
Italy: Giovanni Di Lorenzo RB (Out), Manuel Locatelli CM (Out), Giacomo Raspadori AM (Out), Moise Kean ST (Out), Mateo Retegui ST (Out).
France: Jules Kounde RB (Out), Pierre Kalulu RB (Out), William Saliba CB (Out), Manu Kone CM (Out), Aurelien Tchouameni CM (Out), Ousmane Dembele ST (Out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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