Bayern Munich vs Manchester United Predictions and Picks: Goalfest in September

English soccer power, meet German soccer power. Manchester United and Bayern Munich do battle on Matchday 1 of the 2023/24 Champions League group stage and while it figures to be an intriguing fixture, our UCL betting picks see one very likely outcome.

Last Updated: Sep 18, 2023 12:31 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Harry Kane Bayern Munich Bundesliga
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Two teams that need very little introduction get their 2023/24 Champions League campaign underway on Wednesday when Manchester United travels to Munich to take on Bayern in front of a sell-out crowd at Allianz Arena. 

Champions League odds have tabbed the 11x defending Bundesliga champions as -181 favorites with the goal total sitting at 3.5 shaded to the Over at -135. 

If we consider form coming into this match, Bayern should dominate this match, but you can never count out a Manchester United squad when they have their backs against the wall. 

Will Bayern make quick work of a wounded United squad or will Erik ten Hag push the right buttons on Wednesday? 

Find out below in my free Champions League picks for Bayern Munich vs. Manchester United. 

Bayern Munich vs Manchester United best odds

Brighton & Hove Albion Bayern Munich Manchester United Manchester United
-181 Moneyline +437
+375 Draw +375
Over 3.5 (+114) Total Under 3.5 (-135)

Odds courtesy of TonyBet on September 18, 2023.

Bayern Munich vs Manchester United picks and predictions

Another Bundesliga campaign is underway and Bayern Munich have picked up right where they left off from last season. They currently sit in second spot, level on points with Bayer Leverkusen but behind on goal differential. Nonetheless, Bayern are still the dominant attacking force we've known them to be, notching 11 goals through four games so far this season. The only blip on the radar came in their latest game, a 2-2 draw with Leverkusen after conceding a penalty in the fourth minute of stoppage time. 

When you have as much attacking talent as Bayern have, the want to commit bodies forward every chance is tempting, but it's also been their Achilles heel. They do not want to track back with full effort for the full 90 minutes and good opposition who can generate a great counter-attack will always have a puncher's chance against the Bavarian side. 

This is where Manchester United come into the equation. United have been the laughingstock of the Premier League through the first games of the season, managing just two wins in that span. Defensively, they are in shambles, conceding 10 goals and getting taken to the woodshed by Brighton, Arsenal, and Tottenham. 

Club morale is at an all-time low and Erik ten Hag is on the verge of losing the locker room if the disappointing results continue to pile up. 

While I don't believe Manchester United have what it takes to go into Bayern and escape with three points, I do believe their best chance at a result is by going out and putting their attacking force to work by pressing high up the pitch, committing bodies forward, and firing off as many shots as humanly possible. 

Sitting back for 90 minutes against Bayern is a losing proposition and entering this match with that mindset is a sure-fire way to fail. 

So what's the bet for this game? Well, when you take into consideration both team's form on both ends of the pitch, the talent level on display for both teams, and the desperation level for Manchester United in this one, I believe there will be goals scored and plenty of them at that. 

Bayern Munich have notched at least two goals in 17 of their last 25 home matches while failing to keep a clean sheet in their last six competitive fixtures in all competitions. United have conceded at least two in both away games this season, but Rasmus Hojlund, Marcus Rashford, and Bruno Fernandes should be able to cause trouble for a leaky Bayern defense. 

My best bet: Over 3.5 goals (+114 at TonyBet)

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Bayern Munich vs Manchester United same-game parlay

Over 3.5 goals

Both teams to score

Both teams 2+ cards each

I'll start off this same game parlay with my best bet which is Over 3.5 goals at +114. From there I'll build off of it, and with the amount of attacking talent both teams can throw on the field, I find it hard to believe both sides won't find the back of the net. 

Bayern are a goal-scoring machine, especially at home where they've been held off the scoresheet only once over the last 25 home fixtures. The problem is they concede a ton of goals to inferior opposition and Manchester United (while in poor form) are a team you don't want to give many chances to. 

And finally, I'll look to the card market to complete my SGP. Both teams to receive 2+ cards should be juicy given the propensity of teams hitting each other on the counter-attack more than once. The likes of Christian Erikson and Casemiro in the middle of the park will be desperate to slow down the Bayern attack, whereas Leon Goretzka and Joshua Kimmich will be inclined to do the same. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Bayern Munich vs Manchester United side and Over/Under analysis

If we are talking about this fixture from strictly a win/lose/draw perspective, I have to give the nod to Bayern here to pull out the win and put three points in their group stage bank. They have essentially every single aspect you could want in a team looking to make noise in Europe from the goalkeeper right through the man leading the line in Harry Kane. They can beat you with a possession-based game, or they can blitz you and outscore you in either half. 

Either way, being able to get them at a price of less than -200 is a steal and would be a recommended play for most. 

As for the total, my best bet is the Over 3.5 goals at plus money and it wouldn't shock me to see this match finish with five or six goals. If you add the talent on the field with either team's leaky defenses, the end result should be one we celebrate with a winning bet slip. 

Bayern Munich vs Manchester United game info

Location: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany
Date: Wednesday, September 20, 2023
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Paramount+
Weather: A beautiful night for soccer with no rain.

Bayern Munich vs Manchester United key injuries

Bayern Munich: Kingsley Coman (Questionable), Raphael Guerreiro (Questionable).
Manchester United: Aaron Wan-Bissaka (Out), Raphael Varane (Questionable), Luke Shaw (Questionable), Mason Mount (Questionable).

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