A pair of Western Conference matchups dot the NHL schedule on Friday, and both home teams will be looking to avoid elimination and push their respective series to a Game 7.
The slate opens with the Vancouver Canucks visiting the Nashville Predators, with the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights wrapping the night up in Sin City. It’s the nightcap that has my NHL player props' attention, and even with the Golden Knights the underdog in the NHL odds, I’m anticipating a pushback from Vegas on Friday.
Here are our free NHL picks for Friday, May 3.
NHL prop picks and best bets for May 3
- Hertl Over 0.5 points (+105 at BET99)
- Marchessault Over 0.5 points (-135 at BET99)
- Pietrangelo Over 1.5 shots (-140 at BET99)
Picks made on 5-3 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Tomas Hertl
Vegas Golden Knights winger Tomas Hertl joined Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault on the No. 1 line in Game 5, and Hertl finished the game with three individual high-danger scoring chances and was on the ice for 1.57 expected goals. The trio also finished with a 59.3 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five, and I also value Vegas returning to T-Mobile Arena and having the advantage of last change.
Additionally, I’m also targeting these Tomas Hertl odds because he has positive offensive regression ahead. He paces the Golden Knights in individual expected goals (2.21) and individual high-danger scoring chances (eight) during his four-game point drought, so I expect the puck luck to go in his favor skating with Eichel and Marchessault, including on the No. 1 power-play unit.
Tomas Hertl prop: Over 0.5 points (+105 at BET99)
Prop bet #2: Jonathan Marchessault
Sticking with the top line for the Vegas Golden Knights, reigning Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault has been quiet the past three games, with just a single assist after collecting a pair of goals and a helper through the first two contests of the series. The Dallas Stars have impressed and limited the Golden Knights at five-on-five, but as noted, the Marchessault-Jack Eichel-Tomas Hertl trio drove possession (59.3 Corsi For percentage) in Game 5.
TheseJonathan Marchessault odds aren’t fully pricing in the instant chemistry the new-look Vegas top line flashed, and the go-to winger was also on the ice for the second-most expected goals while logging the second-most ice time among Vegas forwards over the past three games. Finally, the Golden Knights have an unsustainably low 2.3 team shooting percentage with Marchessault on the ice during their three consecutive losses, too.
Jonathan Marchessault prop: Over 0.5 points (-135 at BET99)
Prop bet #3: Alex Pietrangelo
There’s a huge gap in the shots and attempts for Vegas defenseman Alex Pietrangelo over the past two games. He’s registered just a single shot on 11 attempts, and for the series he has recorded 3.07 shots and 11.24 attempts per 60 minutes. Pietrangelo posted respective 5.61 and 12.61 marks and converted 44.5% of his attempts into shots during the regular season. He’s only converted 27.3% of attempts into shots in Round 1.
I also value these Alex Pietrangelo odds because he’s often traded at a 2.5-shot total over the past two seasons. Additionally, with the season on the line, I anticipate Pietrangelo to log big minutes Friday.
Alex Pietrangelo prop: Over 1.5 shots (-140 at BET99)
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