It's the best part of the week, and that's the Wednesday-to-Friday stretch where I'm +48.46 units on the Covers' Puck Props show. Unders have been on a run of late, and it's time for some Wednesday offense with my NHL predictions.
There are a couple of plus-money home dogs that look like great spots to back, and the top line in Nashville that correlates on PP1 has some great stack potential today vs. the Ducks and that atrocious penalty kill.
These are my favorite NHL picks for Wednesday, Nov. 11.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Flames ML
Sharks ML
Bourque/O'Reilly/Stamkos Over 0.5 points eachPercentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Flames moneyline
It's a pizzeria moneyline pick today, as the Calgary Flames are a much better team at home than on the road, while the Rangers have struggled away from Madison Square Garden, posting a 2-6-1 road record.
Calgary is scoring 3.3 goals per game on home ice compared to a league-worst 1.63 on the road. At the Saddledome, the Flames are a respectable 6-4 SU and have gone 6-1 SU over their last seven games. Devin Cooley is back in net, which is good news for Calgary, as he's been a difference-maker and ranks in the Top 10 in save percentage.
I have the Flames closer to 48% today.
- Matchup: Rangers vs. Flames
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB
- TV: Prime
Pick #2: Sharks moneyline
The San Jose Sharks have been a giant disappointment to begin the season, but there are some reasons to be optimistic about them today.
The Penguins are playing the first game of their West Coast road trip and have zero regulation wins over their last six games. This is an offense being led by Nick Robertson's seven goals, despite the forward playing just 12 minutes a night and recording only one point over his last seven games.
The Sharks got a boost with the return of Alex Wennberg. It might not seem like much, but the forward returned after missing 10 games, during which the club went 3-7 SU, and immediately played over 23 minutes in a 3-2 win over the Islanders. San Jose also outshot New York 43-31, with its 43 shots on net marking a season high.
It's a tough travel spot for the visitors, and the Sharks should be closer to 48% probable today. They also got a lot of weight off their shoulders with that win over the Islanders.
- Matchup: Penguins vs. Sharks
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: SAP Center, San Jose, CA
- TV: ESPN+
Pick #3: Bourque/O'Reilly/Stamkos Over 0.5 points each
Let's stack the top line in Nashville Predators, which also correlates on PP1.
The Ducks have been on a heater, but they've also been giving up a ton of goals, allowing 4.12 per game over their last eight while scoring 5.25 of their own. They've won five straight, but continue to give up goals in bunches, and their penalty kill has allowed 12 goals over its last eight games.
The Predators are riding a five-game winning streak of their own and own the No. 6 power play in hockey. With the Ducks allowing multiple special-teams goals per game during their recent scoring stretch, it's easy to see both power plays finding the scoresheet tonight.
The value is gone from the Ducks' offense, but there's still plenty to like on the opposing side when they're giving up this many goals.
- Matchup: Predators vs. Ducks
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
- TV: Prime
- Top picks: 36-43, +3.75
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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