The Stanley Cup Playoffs are here, and the hockey gods are shining bright, giving us a juicy rivalry series between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins on night one.
David Pastrnak has been a problem for the Buds for years now, and I expect he’ll once again factor in big time for the Bruins this evening.
Find out why I’m backing the Boston sniper in my free NHL picks and Maple Leafs vs. Bruins predictions.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins prediction
My best bet
David Pastrnak anytime goal (+100 at SIA)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins kick off night one of the Stanley Cup playoffs with a big-time rivalry game.
There’s a long history between these two clubs, one that has been rather lopsided, with the Bruins winning every single playoff series since 1959. Even the regular-season record has been incredibly one-sided over the past two years, with the Bruins beating the Leafs seven times in a row.
One constant over this stretch has been the dominance of David Pastrnak, who is underpriced on the betting market to score a goal (+100). The Bruins superstar boasts 10 points and four goals over that aforementioned seven-game stretch.
"Pasta" has already scored twice on Toronto during the regular season and has 14 tucks in his last 17 games in total against the Buds. He was once again the Bruins' top offensive weapon, finishing the season with 47 goals, and the results have translated into the playoffs as well throughout his career. The winger has 35 tallies in 77 career playoff games, including 10 goals over his last 14 postseason outings.
As for the Leafs, they’ve been allowing a lot of teams to fill the net of late.
Toronto’s defensive structure took a nosedive in the final week of the season, allowing 5+ goals in each of its final four games. The penalty kill was abysmal as well, giving up six goals in that stretch for a kill rate of just 64%.
If the Leafs don’t clean things up defensively or get a monster outing from the goaltender, the Bruins should have a field day offensively, with Pastrnak licking his chops every time he hits the ice.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins same-game parlay (SGP)
David Pastrnak anytime goal
Auston Matthews anytime goal
Each team Over 1.5 goals
Along with our best bet, we'll be backing Auston Matthews to find the back of the net tonight. The Leafs phenom finished with a league-high 69 goals this year and has 10 goals in as many games against the B’s.
For my final leg, I’ll take both teams to go Over 1.5 goals scored. The Leafs had the best road offense in the NHL this season, averaging 3.59 goals per game. They also allowed 3.18 goals per game, so the Bruins should be able to net 2+ tonight, just as they’ve done in the last seven meetings against Toronto.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins odds
Maple Leafs vs Bruins live odds
Maple Leafs vs Bruins opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto +1.5 (-110) | Boston -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Toronto +110 | Boston -130
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-125) | Under 5.5 (+105)
Maple Leafs vs Bruins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
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Boston has cashed the moneyline in seven straight meetings against the Leafs, but I’m personally staying away from picking a side in game one until I see how things play out with the matchups.
The total for tonight’s game is set at 5.5 goals, with the Over favored at -125, while the Under is getting +105 odds. The total is an even split of 5-5 to the Over in the last 10 meetings between the two teams.
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Playoffs are typically tighter, low-scoring games; however, 5.5 seems low considering both teams sit in the middle of the pack or worse when it comes to underlying defensive metrics (expected goals against). The Leafs ranked 26th in the league, while the Bruins were 18th.
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Maple Leafs vs Bruins trend
The Leafs have cashed the third period moneyline in four of their last five road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Bruins.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-20-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS, truTV |
Maple Leafs vs Bruins latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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