The Vegas Golden Knights host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Sunday evening at T-Mobile Arena. Oddsmakers list Vegas as a -126 favorite, with the total set at 6.5.
Tampa has won each of the past three meetings between these teams, a trend that my Lightning vs. Golden Knights predictions anticipate continuing.
Find out more in my NHL picks for March 23.
Lightning vs Golden Knights prediction
My best bet: Lightning moneyline (+105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Tampa Bay Lightning have been one of the NHL’s top teams over the past two months. They rank second in the league in xGF% over that stretch, which is three spots higher than the Vegas Golden Knights.
Tampa is generating high-danger scoring chances at an elite rate during that span, ranking second in xGF/60. Meanwhile, Vegas is hovering around the league average.
While the Golden Knights have been slightly better at limiting high-danger scoring chances, Tampa Bay holds a clear edge in goaltending. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to start for Tampa Bay, and the former Vezina winner has been excellent this season.
Through 54 starts, Vasilevskiy is 33-18-3 with a .920 SV% and 2.23 GAA. This success is likely to continue against the Golden Knights, a team he is 3-0 against over the last three meetings.
On the other end of the ice, Ilya Samsonov is projected to start for Vegas. Samsonov has surrendered three or more goals in five of his last six starts, posting a .855 SV% over that stretch.
Back Tampa to get the road win in Sin City.
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Lightning vs Golden Knights same-game parlay (SGP)
Lightning moneyline
Brayden Point anytime goalscorer
Jake Guentzel anytime goalscorer
Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel lead Tampa Bay in power-play goals, and they should have opportunities to extend those marks on Sunday.
Vegas ranks in the bottom half of the league in penalty kill percentage, and Point and Guentzel are also threats at even strength, with each boasting more than 30 goals on the season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lightning vs Golden Knights odds
Lightning vs Golden Knights live odds
Lightning vs Golden Knights opening odds
- Puck line: Tampa Bay +106 | Vegas -128
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +106 | Vegas -128
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-110) | Under 6.5 (-110)
Lightning vs Golden Knights trend
Florida has won each of the last three meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Golden Knights.
How to watch Lightning vs Golden Knights
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Sunday, 3-23-2025 |
| Puck drop | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Sun, Vegas 34 |
Lightning vs Golden Knights latest injuries
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