Matt Coronato has seen an uptick in shots and scoring chances since the trade deadline.
My Lightning vs. Flames predictions expect the added responsibility to lead to results against Jonas Johansson and a fatigued Tampa side playing its fourth road game in six days.
Let’s get into my NHL picks for Sunday, March 22.
Lightning vs Flames prediction
Lightning vs Flames best bet: Matt Coronato Over 0.5 points (+105)
Matt Coronato has become an even bigger focal point of the Calgary Flames' offense with Nazem Kadri no longer in the picture.
He ranks second on the team in shots, second in expected goals, and first in scoring chances since the deadline.
The added responsibility and uptick in volume should serve him well against the Tampa Bay Lightning. They’re playing in a road back-to-back, which means Andrei Vasilevskiy will get the night off.
Backups generally start the second leg, making it no coincidence the Lightning have allowed 3.67 goals per game in the back half of B2B’s.
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Lightning vs Flames same-game parlay
Morgan Frost is centering Coronato on the top offensive line, and they also play together on the man advantage. Shooting on a netminder with an .884 SV% is the cherry on top.
Frost has fared remarkably well at generating shots against good defensive sides. Isolating matchups against Top-10 shot suppression teams, Frost has multiple shots on target in 11 of his last 14 games.
Lightning vs Flames SGP
- Matt Coronato Over 0.5 points
- Morgan Frost Over 0.5 points
- Morgan Frost Over 1.5 shots
Lightning vs Flames odds
- Moneyline: Lightning -190 | Flames +160
- Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+130) | Flames +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-135) | Under 5.5 (+115)
Lightning vs Flames trend
Morgan Frost has averaged 2.4 shots over his last five home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Flames.
How to watch Lightning vs Flames
| Location | Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB |
| Date | Sunday, March 22, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet West |
Lightning vs Flames latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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