We are back on the ice this Tuesday, and I couldn't be happier. It's a new season with more games, more breaks, and less preseason. A lot of turnover and new faces in new places give us a few extra angles on opening night and the week to target in our NHL picks.
With the lack of preseason skating, the big dogs like Vancouver and Chicago are targets, and who doesn't want to see goals in the Habs vs. Leafs opener?
These are my favorite NHL predictions for Monday, Sept. 29.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 / Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Over 6.5 |
48% |
 Canucks ML |
29% |
 Blackhawks team total Over 2.5 |
47% |
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Pick #1: Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Over 6.5
The lack of preseason prep and skating will lead to some sloppy hockey on Tuesday. That doesn't necessarily mean goals across the board, but we could see plenty of defensive breakdowns and a handful of power-play opportunities.
This game might feature the two best power plays on the slate, excluding the Oilers.
Auston Matthews might finally be past the wrist injury that zapped the effectiveness of his release, as his 50+ goal potential was on display in his limited preseason action.
The Toronto Maple Leafs also have a shot at the top of the circle with Darren Raddysh, which is something they haven't had in ages. That should give Matthews and William Nylander a little more space on the half-wall.
Adding Gavin McKenna to the second line will also make it harder for Marty St. Louis to deploy his better defensive pairing, since both Leafs' top lines can score. New head coach Jim Hiller won't want to be as conservative with his top players as Craig Berube was last year.
The Montreal Canadiens can go shot-for-shot with Toronto, and adding Chris Kreider to the top line makes that second line much more dangerous.
This game has a lot of top-six scoring potential, while the Leafs are learning a new system and adapting to new defensemen playing big minutes, which could create an early learning curve.
- Matchup: Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
- TV: Sportsnet
Pick #2: Canucks moneyline
The preseason is a mess, with guys who have played more than 100 games in their careers allowed to play in only two preseason games. This will lead to sloppy early hockey, which puts value on the dogs — and no one is bigger than the Vancouver Canucks.
The Edmonton Oilers were the same price against Vancouver last year near the end of the season, when Edmonton was playing its best hockey.
There are worries about Tristan Jarry in net, as he is not even an average NHL goalie. The home team is also making a system change, as new head coach Mike Babcock and his extra luggage are now behind the bench.
This is a young Vancouver team that might be in better shape for Game No. 1 than a veteran-heavy Edmonton squad, and these 3x MLs are very appetizing this week.
- Matchup: Canucks vs. Oilers
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta
- TV: Sportsnet
Pick #3: Blackhawks team total Over 2.5
Connor Bedard is out, but this Chicago Blackhawks lineup still has plenty of young scoring against a Vegas Golden Knights team that likely isn't strong in net with Carter Hart, and may not be as motivated as the Hawks after a long Stanley Cup Final run that ended in mid-June.
The Hawks have legit scoring rookies on both top lines in Anton Frondell and Roman Kantserov. Frondell has a terrifying shot after seeing it at the World Juniors and World Hockey Championships, where he scored six goals in 11 games. He is 4.3x to score, which is also worth a look.
The exciting one, and one that might be flying under the radar, is Kantserov, who is playing on the top line and PP1. He scored 36 goals in 63 games in the KHL last year at age 21 and has shorter odds to win the Calder than Frondell, who already has 12 NHL games under his belt at 19.
The value on opening night is with the dogs.
- Matchup: Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
- TV: Scripps Sports
- Top picks: 0-0, +0.0 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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