Opening Night in the NHL is where reputation meets reality.
Five games, 10 fresh rosters, and several mismatches that look much more interesting once you get past last season’s records.
Our NHL moneyline picks attack everything from Edmonton’s lethal power play against Vancouver’s shaky penalty kill to Boston opening without Charlie McAvoy and Vegas catching Chicago without Connor Bedard.
Find out more in my NHL picks for Tuesday, Sept. 29.
NHL moneyline picks: Sept. 29
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Panthers vs  Hurricanes |
55% |
 Canadiens vs  Maple Leafs |
51% |
 Rangers vs  Bruins |
51% |
 Canucks vs  Oilers |
73% |
 Blackhawks vs  Golden Knights |
77% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert NHL moneyline picks: Sept. 29
Panthers vs Hurricanes pick: Hurricanes
Florida getting Aleksander Barkov back and adding Brady Tkachuk makes this a much nastier matchup than last year's record suggests, but Carolina has one advantage I want on Opening Night: continuity.
The defending champs can immediately go back to their suffocating forecheck while Florida works Barkov and Tkachuk back into the mix.
If the Hurricanes keep Florida's defense pinned on retrievals and turn this into a possession grind, I'll trust Carolina at home.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs pick: Maple Leafs
Montreal isn't a rebuilding pushover anymore, but the absence of Kaiden Guhle creates exactly the matchup Toronto's new-look forward group can punish.
The Leafs can follow Auston Matthews' line with a projected second unit of William Nylander, John Tavares and Gavin McKenna, forcing Montreal's thinner blue line to survive two legitimate scoring waves.
Toronto was far too easy to play against last season. More depth and a healthy Chris Tanev should change that quickly.
Rangers vs Bruins pick: Rangers
Boston picked a terrible night to be without Charlie McAvoy. New York spent the offseason adding Pavel Dorofeyev and Oliver Bjorkstrand, giving J.T. Miller a second scoring line that Boston now has to contain without its best defenseman eating 25 minutes.
Jeremy Swayman can erase mistakes, but asking him to repeatedly bail out a depleted blue line is not much of a game plan. The Rangers finally have enough scoring depth to make that absence hurt.
Canucks vs Oilers pick: Oilers
There are easier ways to start a season than bringing last year's NHL-worst penalty kill into Edmonton. Vancouver killed just 71.5% of its penalties, while Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers operated at a league-best 30.6% on the power play.
Tristan Jarry's shaky Edmonton numbers keep this from being completely comfortable, but Vancouver is without Thatcher Demko and can't afford to give this offense extra opportunities. Stay out of the box or get buried.
Blackhawks vs Golden Knights pick: Golden Knights
Chicago's kids are going to be fun. Opening in Vegas without Connor Bedard will not be.
The Golden Knights can roll Jack Eichel, William Karlsson and Tomas Hertl down the middle against a young Chicago group still learning on the fly, while Bedard's absence removes the Blackhawks' best offensive engine. V
egas shouldn't need its goalie to steal anything here. Control the puck, lean on Chicago's inexperienced centers, and make the Blackhawks defend all night.
