Goal scoring tends to be higher at the beginning of each season, and I'm banking on that trend continuing with my NHL player props for opening night.
Leon Draisaitl is arguably the best scorer in the sport, and he has a mouthwatering matchup against the Vancouver Canucks. He headlines my three NHL picks for Tuesday, Sept. 29.
Today's best NHL player prop picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Nylander Over 0.5 assists |
50% |
 Dorofeyev Over 0.5 points |
51% |
 Draisaitl anytime goal |
49% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Novig today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Novig promo code 'COVERS' and trade $10 on any event contracts to get $25!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Prop pick #1: William Nylander Over 0.5 assists
I like William Nylander to pick up a helper, and would play his assist up to 55%.
The Toronto Maple Leafs went through a year from hell in 2025-26, and Nylander still managed to record an assist in 59% of his games when excluding Top-10 defenses.
That number soared to 83% in games the Maple Leafs were favored, which is the case opening night against the Montreal Canadiens.
With Kirill Marchenko and Gavin McKenna in the fold, and Auston Matthews back to full health, Toronto’s forward ranks possess much more high-end talent than they did a year ago. That will only help Nylander’s cause in picking up an assist.
- Matchup: Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
- TV: SN, TVAS
Prop pick #2: Pavel Dorofeyev Over 0.5 points
The Boston Bruins were a mediocre defensive team last season and didn’t make any needle-moving additions on the back end.
That’s good news for sniper Pavel Dorofeyev, who set a career high in points (64) while leading the Vegas Golden Knights in scoring by 10 goals. Back him to 54% to take advantage of this matchup.
He faced the Bruins twice last year and combined for seven shots, 13 attempts, and three points. He also hit the scoresheet in both meetings.
More of the offense will run through Dorofeyev with the New York Rangers than it did in Vegas, where they had a handful of other stars up front.
- Matchup: New York Rangers vs. Boston Bruins
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: TD Garden, Boston
- TV: ESPN
Goal scorer pick: Leon Draisaitl
I’d back Leon Draisaitl to find the back of the net to 54%.
He is one of the best finishers in the sport and has a cupcake matchup on opening night against the Vancouver Canucks.
They were a distant last in goals allowed a year ago, and shouldn’t be much (any?) better this season. They are favored to finish last place in the NHL.
Draisaitl feasted in advantageous matchups last year, scoring in 61% of Edmonton’s wins against Bottom-12 defensive teams.
That’s certainly notable as the Edmonton Oilers are 74% favorites tonight. They are the biggest favorites on the board, and likely to put up a healthy goal output in a win.
- Matchup: Vancouver Canucks vs. Edmonton Oilers
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton
- TV: SN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
