There are eight games on the NHL slate tonight, including a marquee matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Vegas Golden Knights.
Tonight marks the first time Mitch Marner returns to Toronto since his departure, and I’m expecting an offensive-filled contest.
Find out why with my Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs predictions and NHL picks for Friday, January 23.
Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs prediction
Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs best bet: Over 6.5 (+110)
Tonight’s contest between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Vegas Golden Knights should be electric.
These two teams faced off a week ago in Vegas and scored 11 goals, with the game going to overtime.
I’m expecting a similar offensive explosion tonight, which is why I’m making the plus-money play and Over 6.5 goals my best bet.
The Over has hit in five of the last six meetings between these two teams, with an average of 7.8 goals scored in that stretch.
Additionally, both teams have been hitting the Over with regularity, combining to go 54-40-4 between the two clubs this season with Toronto topping the 6.5 goal mark in five of its last six games, while Vegas is 6-3-1 to the Over in its last 10.
Toronto also averages 3.57 goals on home ice this season, and with Marner in town, I expect them to be extra-motivated tonight.
As for Vegas, they’re coming off a tight loss to Boston last night, but have been filling the net with authority lately, averaging 4.2 goals over their last 10 games, including a six-spot last week.
There’s also a report that Anthony Stolarz could be making his return to the crease in tonight’s game as Toronto's starter.
He hasn’t played since November 11 and could be rusty, furthering my belief in a high-scoring affair.
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Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay
I’m expecting a lot of offense tonight, which means Auston Matthews should surely find the scoresheet in some capacity. The Maple Leafs captain is red hot with 19 points in his last 13 games, including a goal in last week's contest between these two teams.
Moreover, he has 11 goals and 14 points in his -3 career games against Vegas.
For my final leg, I’ll add the Over on Jake McCabe’s shot blocking total, which is set at 2.5. It’ll be a highly emotional game, and I expect McCabe to put his body on the line to win at all costs.
He’s averaging 2.8 blocks over his last six games, and may be leaned on heavily in the defensive zone tonight with Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Brandon Carlo as game-time decisions.
Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs SGP
- Over 6.5
- Auston Matthews Over 0.5 points
- Jake McCabe Over 2.5 blocks
Mitch Marner Best Bet
Mitch Marner best bet: Over 2.5 shots (+145)
I’ll add in an extra Mitch Marner play for tonight’s big return.
I’m expecting the building to be loud and for the boo birds to be squawking all night long.
However, from a betting perspective, I actually like the Over on Marner’s shot prop. He’ll be motivated by his return tonight, and I fully expect him to shoot the puck quite often in an attempt to make a difference in the game.
His total is set at 2.5 shots. He went over that number in the last meeting and has registered 3+ shots in five of his last seven games.
Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs odds
- Moneyline: Golden Knights -113 | Maple Leafs -101
- Puck Line: Golden Knights -1.5 (+211) | Maple Leafs +1.5 (-255)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+109) | Under 6.5 (-125)
Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs trend
The Leafs are 4-6 on the moneyline in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs.
How to watch Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Friday, January 23, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCRIPPS, Sportsnet |
Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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