Adrian Kempe has averaged more than three shots per game despite a difficult schedule featuring several strong shot-suppression teams.
With a softer matchup against a Boston Bruins team playing the second half of a road back-to-back, Kempe's volume is poised to spike.
He headlines my three NHL player props and NHL picks for Saturday, Oct. 17.
Today's best NHL player prop picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Shayne Gostisbehere Over 1.5 shots |
53% |
 Adrian Kempe Over 2.5 shots |
58% |
 Wyatt Johnston anytime goal |
38% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Shayne Gostisbehere Over 1.5 shots
Play Shayne Gostisbehere for 2+ shots to 56%.
Gostisbehere has generated shots consistently out of the gate, attempting at least five in all eight games.
He recorded at least two shots on goal 76% of the time last season when attempting five or more shots.
The volume should remain strong against the Winnipeg Jets. They rank 22nd in shot suppression, and Gostisbehere has crushed it in similar matchups.
Against bottom-12 teams in shot suppression, Gostisbehere has gone Over 1.5 in 15 of his past 17 games dating back to last year.
- Matchup: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Winnipeg Jets
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
- TV: SN, ESPN+
Prop pick #2: Adrian Kempe Over 2.5 shots
I’m targeting Adrian Kempe for 3+ shots to 62%.
Kempe has posted very strong volume to date, averaging 3.2 shots on 8.5 attempts through five games.
Those numbers would be impressive over any stretch, but are especially strong given the caliber of opponents Kempe has faced.
Four of the five teams he has faced – Edmonton, Colorado, Florida, and Vegas – rank in the top half of the league in shot suppression.
Only eight teams have allowed more shots on goal per 60 than the Boston Bruins, who played in Anaheim just last night.
This is a good spot for Kempe to let it fly.
- Matchup: Boston Bruins vs. Los Angeles Kings
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
- TV: SN+, ESPN+
Goal scorer pick: Wyatt Johnston
Play to 44%.
Wyatt Johnston has generated a healthy 2.1 expected goals through five games but has not found the back of the net.
He has a mouthwatering matchup to change that against the Chicago Blackhawks. They rank 27th in expected goals allowed and 29th in shot suppression.
They are giving up a ton of looks, including to Johnston’s primary shooting zones. More than 50% of his attempts come from the low slot, and Chicago is allowing 15% more shots from that location than the league average.
Johnston is an efficient shooter who generally doesn’t need many chances to score – and this matchup should serve up plenty.
- Matchup: Dallas Stars vs. Chicago Blackhawks
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: United Center, Chicago
- TV: SN+, ESPN+
- Prop picks: 13-14, -2.95 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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