The Tampa Bay Lightning are 78% favorites over the Vancouver Canucks this afternoon.
Vancouver hasn't defended a lick, ranking 31st in both shots and goals against. That puts star forwards Jake Guentzel and Brandon Hagel firmly on my radar for today's NHL predictions.
Let's dive into my full card of NHL picks for Saturday, October 17.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jake Guentzel Over 2.5 shots |
54% |
 Olen Zellweger Over 2.5 shots |
40% |
| Brandon Hagel Over 0.5 assists |
49% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Jake Guentzel Over 2.5 shots
I like Jake Guentzel for Over 2.5 shots up to 56%.
The Vancouver Canucks rank 31st in shot suppression and give up more shots per game to wingers than any other team in the NHL.
A lot of his volume comes from the slot and net-front, and the Canucks rank bottom-five in limiting shots from both areas.
The power-play matchup is also extremely enticing. Guentzel leads the Tampa Bay Lightning in shots on goal on the man advantage, and the Canucks are allowing shots on the penalty kill at a higher rate than any other team.
- Matchup: Vancouver Canucks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Benchmark International Arena
- TV: SN+, ESPN+
Pick #2: Olen Zellweger Over 2.5 shots
Olen Zellweger is a play for Over 2.5 shots to 48%.
His average ice time has jumped from 17.3 minutes to 25.1 minutes without Rasmus Dahlin in the lineup.
He is being relied on much more to create offense, and he’s taking full advantage of the added responsibility.
Zellweger generated 10 shots on 15 attempts over his last two games, recording 4+ shots on target in both.
One of those games came against the Montreal Canadiens. Zellweger fired seven pucks towards the Montreal net while playing more than 26 minutes.
The odds we’re getting are far too generous given the drastic increase in workload.
- Matchup: Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Bell Centre, Montreal
- TV: SN+, NHL Network
Pick #3: Brandon Hagel Over 0.5 assists
I’m going to double-dip on Lightning forwards and target Brandon Hagel for an assist at 53%.
Hagel is skating on the opposite wing of Nikita Kucherov on the top line. He averaged nearly two assists per 60 minutes with Kucherov in 5-on-5 last season, not to mention what he did on the power play.
The Canucks are getting crushed at 5-on-5 and performing miserably on the penalty kill, opening plenty of pathways to getting a helper.
The Lightning are incredibly large 78% favorites, and Hagel has tallied 14 assists over Tampa Bay’s last 15 victories.
- Matchup: Vancouver Canucks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Benchmark International Arena
- TV: SN+, ESPN+
- Top picks: 13-14, -2.95 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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