Week 14 featured a good handful of games with huge weather implications, and although the Week 15 odds may not feature as many games with impactful weather, there are still a few games projected to have some eye-opening and NFL odds-altering weather.
This week features some projected high wind speeds on the East Coast as well as some windy conditions in the cold confines of Lambeau Field.
Continue reading for breakdowns of the forecasts for Week 15's outdoor matchups before making your NFL picks.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers Weather
This NFC South matchup not only features the 24th and 30th-ranked teams based on points per game but will also feature some troublesome weather when it comes to scoring outlook.
When the Carolina Panthers host the Atlanta Falcons in Week 15, there is a 42% chance we'll see rain, and winds are projected to average around 14 mph.
In theory, the rain would be more of a factor than the wind (usually wind only really becomes a tangible factor at 20+ mph), but both teams are already more run-friendly than the average team.
Atlanta passes just 55% of the time, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. Their pass rate over expectation (PROE) of -10.3% is not only the league's lowest, but the gap between them and the second lowest (Cardinals at -5.3%) is the same size gap between the second-lowest mark and the 13th-lowest.
Meanwhile, the Panthers pass at a 63% rate, which is good for eighth in the NFL, but they've been ineffective with those passes (dead last in pass offense DVOA). Plus, their -4.0% PROE ranks 23rd this year.
In a game projected to be within a field goal, Carolina may be tempted even more than usual to keep things on the ground.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers Weather
There isn't quite snow yet in Lambeau but Sunday will bring 20 mph gusts. That could be problematic for these two teams given the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank 10th in pass rate and the Green Bay Packers are just behind them at 11th.
But it's not just about how often they pass, it's about what those passes look like. Green Bay's 8.6 average depth of target (aDOT) ranks as the sixth-longest, and the Buccaneers' 8.7 aDOT ranks third.
By this year's low-scoring standards, the total of 42 is seemingly a bit lofty given how much the wind could impact these two passing attacks, all things considered.
If both teams are forced to pivot to more run-heavy approaches, we may see both teams sustain longer drives than usual given Tampa Bay ranks around league average in run defense DVOA (16th) whereas Green Bay ranks near the bottom at 25th.
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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins Weather
Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins have been one of the league's most potent passing attacks this year, but the weather in Week 15 may lower their ceiling. Sunday will bring a 43% chance of thunderstorms that will be accompanied by projected 23 mph winds.
Despite their earned reputation as one of the league's most lethal passing attacks, Miami's 58% pass rate ranks just 26th this year. However, when adjusting for game context (down, distance, etc.), their 0% pass rate over expectation (PROE) ranks 12th.
The New York Jets pass at a 68% clip, which is good for the second-highest rate only behind the Commanders, but that's more a reflection of the frequency at which they're trailing in games.
Nevertheless, many will look at the 39.5-point total and favor the Over. However, we're here to tell you the weather should give you some pause when it comes to that inclination.
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