Surviving Week 1 is about more than simply picking the largest favorite. My Week 1 Survivor Pool picks weigh win probability, projected ownership, and future value to identify the safest options, while also highlighting alternatives for players looking to gain an early edge on the competition.
Check out our NFL picks for Week 1.
Week 1 Survivor Pool rankings
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Win Probability |
Why They'll Win |
|---|---|---|
1.  Steelers |
65% | Week 1 is the healthiest the Steelers' veteran roster will be, and the Falcons are missing both EDGE rushers |
2.  Chargers |
83% | Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh is 6-0 versus the spread in Week 1, and the Cardinals are the biggest underdog this week |
3.  Lions |
76% | At the end of last season, the Lions were power-rated nearly 11 points better than the Saints on a neutral field |
4.  Eagles |
70% | The Eagles are better at every position than the Commanders, except for maybe wide receiver |
5.  Jaguars |
80% | The Browns' QB is Deshaun Watson. Enough said |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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1. Steelers (vs Falcons)
- Why to take them: Aaron Rodgers played for Pittsburgh Steelers first-year head coach Mike McCarthy, so he doesn't need to learn a new system
- Why to save them: You can save the Steelers for Week 8 when they host the Browns, who are getting the worst odds to win the AFC North
2. Chargers (vs Cardinals)
- Why to take them: As noted earlier this week in my Cardinals vs. Chargers prediction and early NFL survivor picks and strategy for Week 1, the Los Angeles Chargers are 12-2 straight up and 11-3 against the spread versus teams with a 40% winning rate or worse since 2024, and the Arizona Cardinals are projected to win 3-5 games
- Why to save them: The Chargers still play the Raiders twice this season, which should be a "free square," and they'll be the most popular pick this week, and you want to be as contrarian as possible in survivor
3. Lions (vs Saints)
- Why to take them: The Lions are 20-8 straight up as a home favorite since 2023 with a +9.4 scoring margin
- Why to save them: Wait until the Detroit Lions' two best defensive backs, Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, return from injury
4. Eagles (vs Commanders)
- Why to take them: The Philadelphia Eagles hold a massive edge in the trenches, which is the most predictive area in football handicapping
- Why to save them: Division games can be sketchy, and you can save the Eagles for Week 13 when they visit the Cardinals
5. Jaguars (vs Browns)
- Why to take them: Ride with the Jacksonville Jaguars if you believe the Cleveland Browns will be as bad as the market expects and analysts project
- Why to save them: They host the Commanders in Week 17, and Washington QB Jayden Daniels is an injury risk who might not make it that long
Week 1 Survivor Pool strategy
It's tough coming up with a "one size fits all" survivor action plan. A lot of it depends on your survivor league's size and rules. But I look at projected ownership at SurvivorAtlas.com, pick teams outside of the top three, and hope for carnage among the favorites.
Upsets happen all the time in the NFL, which is why it's so hard to win a survivor league.
Also, before using a team in survivor, you need to figure out its future value. With the Steelers, we don't know how long their veteran roster will be healthy, and they play in one of the league's weirdest divisions. That's why I don't want to use them against the Browns.
Plus, we can save the Chargers for the Raiders and the Lions because they have the NFL's easiest schedule.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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