The Kansas City Chiefs were already at the center of the NFL universe — but they’ll get an even brighter spotlight as they face the New York Jets on Sunday Night Football, with Taylor Swift expected to be in the house at MetLife Stadium. That sets the stage for some big-time NFL odds.
And no one will be under the microscope more than Travis Kelce. So, what will Kelce do as a follow-up act after treating Taylor and the Swifties to a touchdown in her visit to Kansas City last weekend?
If the Chiefs’ 41-10 beatdown against the Chicago Bears a week ago was beyond their wildest dreams, it’s been a nightmare start to the season for the Jets and that’s reflected in the Week 4 odds.
Here, I take a closer look at the Travis Kelce odds and give my best free NFL picks for Chiefs vs. Jets on October 1. Be sure to also keep up to date on the Sunday Night Football odds and check out Jason Logan's Chiefs vs. Jets odds, picks, and predictions, along with our SNF player prop picks.
Travis Kelce SNF prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Travis Kelce SNF prop pick
Over 71.5 receiving yards (-114)
Travis Kelce has already achieved the rare feat of packing a year’s worth of headlines into a single month, from his knee injury on the eve of the season to blowing up social media with the Taylor Swift rumors.
But he’s been the same matchup headache on the field, with his numbers on an upward swing after missing Week 1. Kelce led the way with seven catches on eight targets against the Bears last weekend for 69 yards and a touchdown, and I see him being busy in this SNF showdown.
Against a ferocious New York Jets front seven that’s in the Top 10 in fewest rushing yards allowed per carry (3.7) through the first three weeks, I don’t expect the Kansas City Chiefs' ground game to get much traction. That could leave Mahomes throwing early and often while dealing with a messy pocket — and those are the moments when he especially looks for his favorite target.
The even better news for Kelce is that tight ends have consistently found blank spaces against the Jets this season. The New England Patriots got 106 yards and a touchdown from the TE position against New York in Week 3, and two Dallas Cowboys TEs caught TD passes against the Jets the prior week. No team is better equipped to cash in on that vulnerability than the Chiefs.
If you’re concerned that Kelce hasn’t reached this receiving yards number yet in either of his two outings, in the words of Taylor, “You need to calm down”. I expect the SNF audience to spark Kelce’s best game of the season so far.
Prop: Over 71.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Travis Kelce SNF same-game parlay
The Chiefs looked more like themselves in Week 3 and I’m building a same-game parlay around Kelce and the offense finding their groove again on Sunday night, even with New York’s defensive stars battling to keep games close since Aaron Rodgers’ season-ending injury.
The Jets seem determined to stick with Wilson as their starter despite scoring just 20 total points in their last two games. It’s hard to see the hosts shaking off those offensive struggles, with this imposing Kansas City defense allowing 10 points or fewer in its past two outings. Seeing Trevor Siemian waiting in the wings on the New York sideline is hardly likely to faze the visitors either.
I’m picking Kansas City to jump out to an early lead and cover the 8.5-point spread. The Chiefs have won nine of their last 10 games dating back to last season, and they’ve covered the spread in five of their past seven meetings with New York.
I’m also taking a close look at the Isiah Pacheco odds. Though his rushing yards prop doesn’t have great appeal against a stout Jets D-line, I see the Chiefs getting into the red zone enough times to give Pacheco touchdown opportunities inside the 5-yard line.
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