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Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl 57 Prop Odds and Prediction: Pacheco Goes to Work

Not many could have predicted this at the start of the season, but Isiah Pacheco has shot up the Chiefs' depth chart to assume the No. 1 role in both the rushing and passing departments. He should keep his momentum going in Super Bowl 57.

Last Updated: Feb 12, 2023 3:11 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

Isiah Pacheco is coming off his highest-usage game of the season vs. the Bengals, and his role likely won’t diminish with an ineffective Jerick McKinnon. That leaves the rookie in line for another big day in the passing game come Sunday, with Super Bowl odds reflecting as much.

Here are my Super Bowl picks for Pacheco, including a three-leg same-game parlay consisting of only Super Bowl player props.

Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl 57 prop picks and same-game parlay

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl 57 best bet

Isiah Pacheco is taking over the Kansas City backfield. He’s playing on both rushing and passing downs, and set a season-high in snap share vs. the Bengals at 57%. He’s outcarried Jerick McKinnon 22 to 15 in the playoffs, and took control of the rush attack with 10 carries to McKinnon’s four vs. Cincinnati while also expanding his role in the passing game.

The pass-catching role had been McKinnon’s since the bye, as the now-No. 2 back had averaged 5.5 targets per game from Weeks 9 to 18. Now we’re starting to see some more trust with Pacheco in the passing game, as he had a season-high six targets, five catches, and 59 receiving yards vs. the Bengals, and we could see a similar role vs. the Eagles.

Pacheco played a season-high 29 passing downs in the AFC Championship Game, which was 12 more snaps than his previous high. He did enough damage with his five grabs, which should get him more work as a dual-threat running back. McKinnon has failed to do much with his postseason touches, averaging just 2.3 yards per touch on 19 total touches while dealing with an ankle injury.

Pacheco’s receiving yard total has headed north slightly after closing at 10.5 in three straight games, but a move to 13.5 isn’t scaring me away. I’d play this as high as 17.5, and like it so much that I’m also looking to find the best alternate line as well.

I’m going to play 1.5 units on his Over 13.5 receiving yards at BetRivers, and also take the Over 29.5 receiving yards for a half-unit at BetRivers. Bet365 also has alternative yards for Pacheco (milestones) but the price isn’t anywhere near the value BetRivers is posting.

This is also an official BLITZ play, and Derek Carty’s projections have the Chiefs gaining 47 total receiving yards from their backfield.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire has yet to be activated from the IR, and McKinnon is dealing with ankle injuries, which isn’t great news for his stock. This is going to be Pacheco’s backfield.

The offense loves to get the backs involved, as the Chiefs' halfbacks had 16% of the team's receiving yards on the season, and an 18% target share. If Pacheco continues to steal snaps away from an ineffective McKinnon, it could be another big day for him.

Prop: Pacheco Over 13.5 receiving yards (-112 at BetRivers), Pacheco Over 29.5 receiving yards (+430 at BetRivers)

Pacheco 25+ receiving yards

Mahomes 300+ passing yards

Pacheco anytime TD

With the Eagles having the highest-scoring first-half offense in football, Kansas City could be playing from behind early, which should increase their pass-play percentage. That will benefit both Patrick Mahomes and Pacheco in the passing game.

Adding the No. 1 back to score a touchdown in a game in which the Super Bowl odds board shows a total of 50.5 is also an easy way to pump this SGP up to a 10-to-1 proposition.

Same-game parlay: +1,000 at bet365

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