The last time the Los Angeles Rams visited the Carolina Panthers, a soggy Bank of America Stadium played host to one of the biggest upsets of the season.
These foes clash again during Wild Card Weekend, and I’ll be watching the skies to see how the elements could affect the betting outcomes.
Let's analyze the NFL odds with my Rams vs. Panthers weather report for January 10.
Rams vs Panthers weather forecast
Thunderstorms are expected in the Charlotte area, with a 66% chance of precipitation during the first half. Light rain will continue throughout the game, easing slightly over the final 30 minutes.
Winds could also play a role, with some models showing sustained southwest winds of 17 mph and gusts up to 43 mph, blowing sideline to sideline at Bank of America Stadium.
Game-time temperatures will be in the high 60s but will feel like the mid-70s due to 80% humidity.
How Rams vs Panthers weather impacts the odds
Saturday's rematch opened with an Over/Under of 46.5, with a slight uptick in vig toward the Over. I personally bet the Under 46.5 with one of my first wagers of Wild Card Weekend.
The Los Angeles Rams had a rough time in the rain back in Week 13 against the Carolina Panthers, losing 31-28 as 9.5-point road favorites. Used to playing in the covered confines of SoFi Stadium, L.A. really struggled on offense.
Matthew Stafford finished 18 for 28 passing for 243 yards, two touchdowns, but also two interceptions — one of which led to a 48-yard pick-six for Carolina. Stafford would also fumble away the ball in the closing moments, killing what would have been a game-tying field goal attempt.
For his career, Stafford has primarily played indoors but is no stranger to bad weather, going back to his time in the NFC North. His career splits do drop when facing outdoor elements, most notably his completion percentage. That said, it’s not a huge decline in open-air venues.
The rain will make ball security tougher and could also impact how receivers secure passes. Heavier rain can also make traction a problem at the line of scrimmage, giving the offensive line a slight edge by knowing the snap count. The Panthers’ pass protection ranks 23rd in win rate at ESPN and faces the No. 8 defensive line in terms of pass rush win rate from Los Angeles.
Carolina has fumbled 11 times this season (T-4), and the Panthers’ receiving corps has dropped 18 of Bryce Young’s passes — 12th most among qualified QBs. As for L.A., it’s fumbled only seven times, but Stafford has watched 28 of his passes hit the turf due to drops (4.8% drop rate is 11th highest).
Sustained cross winds at 17 mph will push around longer kicks, punts, and deeper passes, while gusts up to 40-plus mph can have a severe influence on those aspects of the game.
Los Angeles kicker Harrison Mevis is 12 for 13 on FGAs but has only kicked one field goal of 50 yards or more this season. He’s a perfect 39 for 39 on PATs.
Meanwhile, Carolina's Ryan Fitzgerald is 24 for 29 on FGAs, with three of those misses coming from 50-plus yards (2 for 5). He’s 27 for 30 on PATs.
One underlying area that could ruin the day for the Rams is on special teams. This has been a sore spot for L.A. and cost coordinator Chase Blackburn his job back in December. Los Angeles punter Ethan Evans isn’t great and sits 30th in net punt yards per game (111.7), with the Rams giving up 16 return yards per punt — most in the NFL.
If the wind pushes those punts around, Carolina could get solid starting field position.
Rams vs Panthers player props to watch
Given the wind outlook, longer field goals could be tricky if gusts reach peak speeds, especially with breezes blowing sideline to sideline.
Looking into the longest field goal made markets, we find the O/U at 48.5 yards for this Wild Card Saturday showdown. I would lean Under if this forecast holds up.
Fitzgerald has struggled at longer distances in the best of conditions, while Mevis’ leg hasn’t had to adjust for a climate like this since Week 13 (in which he didn’t attempt a field goal). Outside of a 52-yarder, he hasn’t hit anything longer than 44 yards since joining Los Angeles in November.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
