Snow, cold, and wind in Soldier Field — we wouldn’t ask for another setting when it comes to the NFC North rivalry between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears.
These division foes face off for a third time this season, with Chicago hosting the Wild Card Weekend contest tonight.
I keep an eye on the climate in Chi-Town and how that could impact the NFL odds with my Packers vs. Bears weather report for Saturday, January 10.
Packers vs Bears weather forecast
The forecast has gotten nastier the closer we get to this 8 p.m. ET kickoff. Temperatures are expected to be hovering around freezing, but those famous Windy City gusts will make it “feel like” 9 degrees, according to one model.
Sustained winds from the West at 19 mph will provided constant push back against play with gusts getting up to 39 mph in the first half, blowing from sideline to sideline. Those breezes will calm a bit in the final 30 minutes but remain disruptive, with sustained winds of 16 mph and gusts reaching 37 mph.
Adding to this chilly climate is the potential for snow showers in the first quarter. Snow is expected to pick up around 6 p.m. ET and continue into the opening frame (55% chance of precipitation) before petering off around 9:00 p.m. ET.
How Packers vs Bears weather impacts the odds
This Over/Under total opened at 47.5 points, and we’ve seen a two-point drop to 45.5 O/U. As we get closer to game day and more attention is paid to the forecast for Soldier Field, we could see another move down with the next key number at 44 points.
If the mercury slips as low as some weather models call for, expect a slight downtick in passing production. Studies have revealed an 8% decrease in NFL games played in temperatures of 25 degrees or below.
The snow showers in the opening quarter could make for a slicker surface and create ball control issues. Both the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers have taken care of the football with only five and six fumbles on the season, respectively. Downfield visibility could be influenced as well, with snow making it harder for QBs to see receivers and coverage.
Rightly, the winds in Chicago will have the most say on Saturday night. Sustained winds of 19 mph — especially cross winds — are constantly affecting deep throws, punts, and longer field goal attempts. Gusts flirting with 40 mph will make longer FGAs a major role of the dice and push any wayward punts or kickoffs out of bounds.
These conditions seem to work against Chicago the most, given the explosive downfield threat of the passing game. That could be most notable if snow does show up in the first quarter.
Bears kicker Cairo Santos is 25 for 30 on FGAs this year with a 4 for 6 record on attempts of 50 yards or more. He’s a perfect 39 for 39 on PATs. Green Bay leg Brandon McManus is 24 for 30 on FGAs but has struggled on longer kicks, going a collective 6 for 12 on FGAs of 40+ yards. He’s 32 for 33 on PATs.
Packers vs Bears player props to watch
Anytime I see sustained winds around 20 mph and gusts getting over 30 mph, I start sizing up the longest field goal made markets.
Add in the fact that the forecast calls for cross winds at Soldier Field and temperatures well below freezing, and I’m going Under 49.5 yards on the longest FGM. Colder air is denser, and the ball doesn’t travel as far.
You can find the Under 49.5 at -115.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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