NFL Picks Against the Spread for Every Wild Card Game

Chris Vasile breaks down his favorite NFL picks against the spread for Super Wild Card weekend, including the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills.

Chris Vasile - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Chris Vasile • Betting Analyst
Jan 11, 2026 • 09:28 ET • 4 min read
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs onto the field before the game against the New York Jets.
Photo By - Imagn Images. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs onto the field before the game against the New York Jets.

The field for the 2026 NFL playoffs is set, and to kick off the festivities, we have six incredible games slated for Super Wild Card weekend. 

Join me as I break down my best Wild Card NFL picks against the spread in hopes of turning you a profit this weekend. 

Wild Card weekend picks against the spread

Matchup Pick
Rams Rams vs Panthers Panthers Panthers (+10.5)
Packers Packers vs Bears Bears Bears (+1.5)
Bills Bills vs Jaguars Jaguars Bills (-1.5)
49ers 49ers vs Eagles Eagles Eagles (-4.5)
Chargers Chargers vs Patriots Patriots Patriots (-3.5)
Texans Texans vs Steelers Steelers Texans (-3.5)

Lines courtesy of FanDuel.

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Expert Wild Card NFL ATS picks

Rams vs Panthers: Panthers Panthers (+10.5)

If this NFL season has taught us anything, it's to expect the unexpected. History is on the side of the Los Angeles Rams as double-digit favorites in the Wild Card round are 12-1 straight up and 10-3 against the spread, but the Carolina Panthers have already beaten the Rams once this season.

Could they pull off another upset? Possibly, but given that we are getting the hook on a key number of 10, I'll take the points with the team everyone is overlooking. 

Read our full Rams vs. Panthers predictions.

Packers vs Bears: Bears Bears (+1.5)

These bitter NFC North rivals split a pair of meetings in December, with the home team winning both games. 

While home field doesn't shift the advantage much in favor of the Chicago Bears (both teams play outdoors), the Green Bay Packers are far too banged up for my liking, despite Chicago rating out poorly on defense. 

I like what the Bears offense brings to the table, and hitting 24 points should get them into the Divisional Round. 

Read our full Packers vs. Bears predictions.

Bills vs Jaguars: Bills Bills (-1.5)

This game has the potential to turn into a shootout, which favors Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills

Allen finally has a run game to keep the defense honest, and the Jacksonville Jaguars rank 21st against the pass. If Allen is afforded time to throw, the Bills will walk out of Jacksonville with a win.

Read our full Bills vs. Jaguars predictions

49ers vs Eagles: Eagles Eagles (-4.5)

If there is any team in the playoffs that has about two more gears to go through, it's the Philadelphia Eagles. They're the defending Super Bowl Champions and have veteran leaders on both sides of the football. 

For the San Francisco 49ers, Brock Purdy has turnover issues, and the 49ers' defense is not good enough to steal this game for them.

Read our full 49ers vs. Eagles predictions.


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Chargers vs Patriots: Patriots Patriots (-3.5)

As much as I don't like the New England Patriots, I believe they're the right side here. The Los Angeles Chargers are banged up, and the question marks surrounding Justin Herbert's hand linger. 

The Patriots are a disciplined team on both sides of the football and have the second-best scoring offense to go along with the fourth-best scoring defense.

At home, give me New England. 

Read our full Chargers vs. Patriots predictions.

Texans vs Steelers: Texans Texans (-3.5)

As someone who had a "Pittsburgh Steelers to miss the playoffs" ticket, I can't in good faith back them in this game. 

They're frauds, and the Houston Texans' defense should occupy plenty of space in the Steelers' backfield. 

Brace yourself, Aaron Rodgers

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Chris Vasile Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Chris Vasile is a betting analyst with over 13 years of experience breaking down soccer betting markets, with additional coverage across the WNBA and NFL. He focuses on finding numbers that are slow to adjust — whether it’s due to scheduling spots, player usage, or recent form — and explaining why a line is worth playing. His work has appeared across major betting and sports media platforms, including Covers, VSiN, BetMGM Network, and SportsGrid, where he’s delivered sharp analysis on both mainstream and niche markets. At Covers, he contributes to major tournament coverage and daily betting content, with a particular focus on soccer. He also runs the Game Day Wagers YouTube channel, where he shares daily picks and betting insights tailored for serious bettors.

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